Manchester United vs Bournemouth Prediction

Old Trafford, Manchester·Jarred Gillett 25/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.38
SignalGOODModel49%SurpriseMediumGap+0.7%
Manchester United Rest
3 days
Bournemouth Rest
2 days

Manchester United vs Bournemouth: result, form and history

Bournemouth beat Manchester United 3-0 in the Premier League on 25 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Bournemouth had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Manchester United.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 8 previous meetings averaged 3.5 goals, and both sides scored in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.40
X
30%3.42
2
32%3.00
Double Chance
1X
68%1.38
X2
62%1.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%1.61
No
41%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.58 + 1.26 = 2.84
Over 1.5
77%1.25
Over 2.5
54%1.81
Over 3.5
34%2.88
Under 1.5
23%3.90
Under 2.5
46%2.08
Under 3.5
66%1.42
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.1 + 5.4 = 9.5
Over 8.5
58%1.40
Over 9.5
47%1.68
Over 10.5
36%2.10
Under 8.5
42%2.65
Under 9.5
53%2.02
Under 10.5
64%1.65
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.6 = 4.6
Over 3.5
67%1.57
Over 4.5
49%2.08
Under 3.5
33%2.33
Under 4.5
51%1.72

Match Events

22'Andrey SantosFoul
27'Tyler AdamsFoul
37'Ayden HeavenDangerous play
38'Rayan Vitor Simplício RochaAssist: Justin Kluivert
40'Youri TielemansFoul
43'Marcus TavernierAssist: Adrien Truffert
45'Youri Tielemans INMatheus Cunha out
45+3'Harry MaguireFoul
63'Justin Kluivert INBen Gannon-Doak out
65'Ayden Heaven INLisandro Martínez out
71'Francisco EvanilsonAssist: Lewis Cook
72'Carlos Baleba INJoshua Zirkzee out
75'Lewis Cook INRyan Christie out
78'Amad Diallo INShea Lacey out
87'Marcus Tavernier INAmine Adli out
87'Francisco Evanilson INEli Kroupi out
87'Adam Smith INBafode Diakite out

Lineups

Manchester United
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Carrick
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Rose
Avg rating6.21
Avg rating7.11
S. Lammens5.81S. Lammens
L. Yoro6.915L. Yoro
H. Maguire6.15H. Maguire
A. Heaven6.226A. Heaven
Diogo Dalot5.72D. Dalot
Andrey Santos6.517A. Santos
C. Baleba6.220C. Baleba
A. Diallo6.316A. Diallo
Y. Tielemans5.318Y. Tielemans
M. Mount6.37M. Mount
B. Mbeumo6.519B. Mbeumo
Đ. Petrović6.61Đ. Petrović
A. Smith7.015A. Smith
J. Hill7.15J. Hill
António Silva7.514A. Silva
A. Truffert6.83A. Truffert
T. Adams6.612T. Adams
L. Cook7.14L. Cook
Rayan7.537Rayan
J. Kluivert7.719J. Kluivert
M. Tavernier8.216M. Tavernier
Evanilson8.19Evanilson

Manchester United Substitutes

31S. Lacey78'for Amad Diallo6.4
8Bruno Fernandes
3N. Mazraoui
6Lisandro Martínez65'for Ayden Heaven6.1
4M. de Ligt
12K. Darlow
10Matheus Cunha45'for Youri Tielemans6.6
11J. Zirkzee72'for Carlos Baleba6.4
39T. Fletcher

Bournemouth Substitutes

30Á. Rodríguez
20M. Di Gregorio
6J. Soler
18B. Diakité87'for Adam Smith7.0
7D. Brooks
10R. Christie75'for Lewis Cook7.4
11B. Doak63'for Justin Kluivert6.5
21A. Adli87'for Marcus Tavernier6.4
22E. Kroupi87'for Francisco Evanilson6.2

Match Stats

Manchester UnitedBournemouth
63%Ball Possession37%
5Corner Kicks4
4Yellow Cards1
17Total Shots10
5Shots on Goal4
7Shots off Goal5
8Shots Inside Box9
9Shots Outside Box1
5Blocked Shots1
13Fouls17
0Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves3
649Total Passes374
540Passes Accurate271
83%Pass Accuracy72%

Team Comparison

Manchester UnitedManchester United
BournemouthBournemouth
1832Elo Rating 1891
0.81Attack 2.02
1.00Defense 2.03
0%Hit Rate 69%
14.3Shots per Game 19.3
4.1Shots on Target 5.6
5.2Corners per Game 5.7
2.3Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.83 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Manchester UnitedManchester United
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BournemouthBournemouth
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

Manchester UnitedManchester United2Wins · 25%
Draws450%
BournemouthBournemouth2Wins · 25%
3.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored4 of 8
75%3+ goals6 of 8

Previous meetings

Premier League20/03/2026
BournemouthManchester United
22
Premier League15/12/2025
Manchester UnitedBournemouth
44
Premier League27/04/2025
BournemouthManchester United
11
Premier League22/12/2024
Manchester UnitedBournemouth
03
Premier League13/04/2024
BournemouthManchester United
22
Premier League09/12/2023
Manchester UnitedBournemouth
03
Premier League20/05/2023
BournemouthManchester United
01
Premier League03/01/2023
Manchester UnitedBournemouth
30

Referee Profile

Jarred Gillett178 matches

3.70Cards per match
3.60Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
20.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jarred Gillett3.70
Other referees3.79

3.70 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.79).

Cards come from 170 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Manchester CityManchester City870120:9+1121LWWWW
2ArsenalArsenal870113:5+821WWWLW
3BrightonBrighton851223:7+1616LWWWW
4LiverpoolLiverpool843111:8+315WWLWD
5ChelseaChelsea841317:15+213LWWLD
6BrentfordBrentford825114:9+511DLDWD
7LeedsLeeds82519:6+311DDLDW
8NewcastleNewcastle832312:14-211WLLWL
9Aston VillaAston Villa83239:12-311WWDWL
10Hull CityHull City82429:8+110DLDLD
11EvertonEverton82428:9-110LLDWD
12IpswichIpswich831412:16-410DLWLW
13BournemouthBournemouth823312:13-19WWLLD
14TottenhamTottenham82338:10-29WWDLD
15FulhamFulham82248:10-28WWLDD
16Manchester UnitedManchester United814310:13-37LDDDL
17Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace82159:19-107LLWDL
18Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest81346:10-46DLLLW
19CoventryCoventry82066:15-96LLWWL
20SunderlandSunderland81256:14-85DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Manchester CityManchester City820:921
2ArsenalArsenal813:521
3BrightonBrighton823:716
4LiverpoolLiverpool811:815
5ChelseaChelsea817:1513
6BrentfordBrentford814:911
7LeedsLeeds89:611
8NewcastleNewcastle812:1411
9Aston VillaAston Villa89:1211
10Hull CityHull City89:810
11EvertonEverton88:910
12IpswichIpswich812:1610
13BournemouthBournemouth812:139
14TottenhamTottenham88:109
15FulhamFulham88:108
16Manchester UnitedManchester United810:137
17Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace89:197
18Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest86:106
19CoventryCoventry86:156
20SunderlandSunderland86:145
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Manchester United vs Bournemouth forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Manchester United and Bournemouth in the Premier League table

In the Premier League table, Bournemouth are 13th and Manchester United 16th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Manchester United 10-13, Bournemouth 12-13. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Bournemouth have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.