Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC Prediction
USA · Regular Season - 22
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.43
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+3.2%
Value Analysis
54%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Under 5.5
2.00
SignalNEUTRALModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+8.2%
Minnesota United FC Rest
6 days
Orlando City SC Rest
7 days
Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC: the result in context
Minnesota United FC and Orlando City SC drew 3-3 in the Major League Soccer on 30 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Referee A. Chapman averages 3.54 cards a game, 0.85 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
147%1.80
X26%4.08
227%3.86
Double Chance
1X73%1.25
X253%1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes71%1.43
No29%2.65
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.64 + 1.27 = 2.91
Over 1.585%1.12
Over 2.564%1.44
Over 3.539%2.10
Under 1.515%6.00
Under 2.536%2.75
Under 3.561%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.2 = 9.8
Over 8.565%1.35
Over 9.553%1.60
Over 10.539%2.00
Under 8.535%2.92
Under 9.547%2.19
Under 10.561%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2 = 3.4
Over 3.547%1.81
Over 4.524%2.40
Under 3.553%1.96
Under 4.576%1.50
Match Events
28'D. Dike
32'A. Markanich
46'D. Callender INA. Smir out
54'A. Griezmann
59'D. Dike INH. Sarajian out
59'J. Gerbet INLuis Otavio out
64'A. GriezmannAssist: J. Ellis
66'M. Boxall
71'M. CaldeiraAssist: K. Yeboah
72'M. Caldeira INN. Triantis out
72'W. Trapp INM. Gonzalez out
73'J. Ellis INT. Spicer out
74'A. MarkanichAssist: J. Pereyra
76'K. Yeboah
81'Z. Taifi INM. Ojeda out
81'E. Atuesta INM. Pasalic out
85'K. Yeboah INT. Chancalay out
90+2'M. Pasalic
90+2'J. Pereyra INC. Harvey out
90+3'T. SpicerAssist: A. Griezmann
Lineups
Minnesota United FCOrlando City SC
4-4-2Coach: Oscar ParejaAvg ratingAvg rating
12D. Callender
28J. Díaz
C15M. Boxall
23M. Duggan
3K. Duncan
30O. Gene
20W. Trapp
13A. Markanich
26J. Pereyra
22M. Caldeira
9K. Yeboah
71M. Crépeau
24G. Dorsey
4D. Brekalo
C6R. Jansson
19Z. Taifi
22J. Ellis
20E. Atuesta
35J. Gerbet
77I. Angulo
9D. Dike
7A. GriezmannMinnesota United FC Substitutes
1Alec Smir46'for D. Callender
25Nectarios Triantis72'for M. Caldeira
18Mauricio González72'for W. Trapp
8Tomás Chancalay85'for K. Yeboah
67Carlos Harvey90+2'for J. Pereyra
5Nicolás Romero
2Devin Padelford
16Aziel Jackson
29Mamadou Dieng
Orlando City SC Substitutes
23Harvey Sarajian59'for D. Dike
5Luis Otávio59'for J. Gerbet
14Tyrese Spicer73'for J. Ellis90+3'
87Marco Pašalić81'for E. Atuesta90+2'
10Martín Ojeda81'for Z. Taifi
12Javier Otero
57Iago Silva
16Wilder Cartagena
11Tiago Souza
Match Stats
Minnesota United FCOrlando City SC 43%Ball Possession57%
8Corner Kicks1
2Yellow Cards2
21Total Shots6
9Shots on Goal5
8Shots off Goal1
20Shots Inside Box4
1Shots Outside Box2
4Blocked Shots1
13Fouls10
4Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves6
409Total Passes569
353Passes Accurate482
86%Pass Accuracy85%
Team Comparison
Minnesota United FCOrlando City SC1556Elo Rating 1633
2.10Attack 2.96
0.69Defense 0.43
27%Hit Rate 46%
17.2Shots per Game 13.8
5.6Shots on Target 5.4
4.8Corners per Game 3.4
1.6Cards per Game 1.7
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.9 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Minnesota United FC- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 75% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Orlando City SC- Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 1.2 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 2 meetings, all competitions
Minnesota United FC1Wins · 50%Draws00%
Orlando City SC1Wins · 50%
1Wins · 50%4.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored2 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2
Previous meetings
10/03/2024Orlando City SCMinnesota United FC23
16/04/2023Minnesota United FCOrlando City SC12
Recent Form
Minnesota United FC2W4D4L
23/08/2026
San Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC
Real Salt LakeMinnesota United FC
Tigres UANLMinnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
San DiegoMinnesota United FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas CityMinnesota United FC
San Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FC15
W20/08/2026Minnesota United FCAtlanta United FC12
L16/08/2026Real Salt LakeMinnesota United FC11
D12/08/2026Minnesota United FC
Atlante FC
08/08/2026Minnesota United FCAtlante FC31
WTigres UANLMinnesota United FC4020
L05/08/2026Minnesota United FC
FC Juarez
02/08/2026Minnesota United FCFC Juarez12
LMinnesota United FCSan Diego11
D26/07/2026Minnesota United FCVancouver Whitecaps00
D23/07/2026Sporting Kansas CityMinnesota United FC21
L23/05/2026Minnesota United FCReal Salt Lake
Minnesota United FCReal Salt Lake11
DOrlando City SC5W1D4L
23/08/2026Orlando City SCReal Salt Lake
New York Red BullsOrlando City SCOrlando City SC
Nashville SCSan Jose EarthquakesOrlando City SC
Orlando City SCReal Salt Lake21
W20/08/2026Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SCChicago Fire12
L16/08/2026Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SCFC Cincinnati11
D13/08/2026Orlando City SC
Atletico San Luis
Orlando City SCAtletico San Luis5232
W09/08/2026Orlando City SC
Leon
Orlando City SCLeon12
L06/08/2026
MonterreyOrlando City SC
02/08/2026MonterreyOrlando City SC12
WNew York Red BullsOrlando City SC32
L26/07/2026Orlando City SCNashville SC10
W23/07/2026San Jose EarthquakesOrlando City SC04
W24/05/2026FC CincinnatiOrlando City SC
FC CincinnatiOrlando City SC62
LReferee Profile
3.54Cards per match
3.44Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
21.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.54 cards a match, 0.85 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.39).
Cards come from 135 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Western Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 67:33 | +34 | 58 | WLWDD |
| 2 |  FC Dallas | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 58:49 | +9 | 54 | LWDWL |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 58:47 | +11 | 51 | LLLDW |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 42:39 | +3 | 51 | WDDDD |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 54:47 | +7 | 49 | DLDDD |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50:35 | +15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 44:43 | +1 | 43 | DWDDD |
| 8 |  Seattle Sounders | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 41:40 | +1 | 43 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 50:49 | +1 | 42 | WWWDL |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45:54 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 57:60 | -3 | 40 | WWDLD |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 50:56 | -6 | 38 | WDWDD |
| 13 | San Diego | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 56:62 | -6 | 35 | LDDDL |
| 14 |  Austin | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 41:59 | -18 | 34 | LWLLL |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 38:80 | -42 | 22 | LLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 32 | 67:33 | 58 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 32 | 58:49 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | 58:47 | 51 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 32 | 42:39 | 51 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 32 | 54:47 | 49 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 50:35 | 47 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 32 | 44:43 | 43 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 32 | 41:40 | 43 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 32 | 50:49 | 42 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 45:54 | 41 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 32 | 57:60 | 40 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 32 | 50:56 | 38 |
| 13 | San Diego | 32 | 56:62 | 35 |
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 41:59 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 32 | 38:80 | 22 |
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 66:23 | +43 | 71 | DWDWW |
| 2 |  New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 54:44 | +10 | 58 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Inter Miami | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 75:55 | +20 | 56 | DLWWW |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 57:48 | +9 | 52 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Charlotte | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 59:48 | +11 | 50 | WLDLW |
| 6 |  Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 62:50 | +12 | 47 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 62:74 | -12 | 43 | DDWDW |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 66:73 | -7 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 9 |  Columbus Crew | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 52:49 | +3 | 41 | WWWWL |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43:59 | -16 | 39 | LWLLW |
| 11 |  Toronto FC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 50:60 | -10 | 39 | WLWDW |
| 12 |  New York City FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 47:44 | +3 | 38 | WDDLL |
| 13 |  DC United | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 39:57 | -18 | 33 | LLLLW |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40:56 | -16 | 30 | LLLWL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 36:66 | -30 | 25 | LLDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | 66:23 | 71 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 32 | 54:44 | 58 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 32 | 75:55 | 56 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 57:48 | 52 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | 59:48 | 50 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 62:50 | 47 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 62:74 | 43 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | 66:73 | 43 |
| 9 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 52:49 | 41 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 43:59 | 39 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 32 | 50:60 | 39 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 47:44 | 38 |
| 13 | DC United | 32 | 39:57 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 40:56 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 32 | 36:66 | 25 |
Promotion
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This match
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- Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte 30/08/26
- Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati 30/08/26
- Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps 30/08/26
- Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes 30/08/26
- Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt Lake 30/08/26
About the Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC forecast
The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Major League Soccer
More Major League Soccer fixtures and forecasts are on the Major League Soccer Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
Minnesota United FC and Orlando City SC have met only 2 times recently, averaging 4.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.