Pafos vs AEL Prediction

Pafos
0-2
Finished
HT 0-0
AEL
Stelios Kyriakidis, Paphos·Marios Christoforou, Cyprus 18/09/2026
PafosPafos
0-2
Finished
AELAEL

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.41
SignalGOODModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+1.4%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.66
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+9.2%
Pafos Rest
5 days
AEL Rest
7 days

Pafos vs AEL: the result in context

AEL beat Pafos 2-0 in the 1. Division on 18 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Pafos have had the better of this fixture, winning 10 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.9 goals a game. Referee Marios Christoforou averages 3.67 cards a game, 1.06 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
75%1.41
X
19%4.33
2
6%6.38
Double Chance
1X
94%1.07
X2
25%2.69
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.80
No
50%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.56 + 0.7 = 3.26
Over 1.5
84%1.17
Over 2.5
66%1.66
Over 3.5
41%2.57
Under 1.5
16%4.24
Under 2.5
34%2.15
Under 3.5
59%1.44
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

35'N. Ioannou
42'Bruno
46'F. R. Mughe
46'N. Ioannou INBiel out
53'L. Singh
55'I. Sunjic INAnderson Silva out
55'V. Dragomir INGuga out
66'S. Jovetic INSergio Conceicao out
66'N. Moumi Ngamaleu IND. Quina out
66'Bruno INY. Zague out
70'Lele
71'J. Tavares
75'L. Singh INJ. Tavares out
75'J. Tavares INS. Denswil out
90'G. Papageorgiou INA. Karo out
90+2'Guga

Lineups

Pafos
4-5-1Coach: Ricardo Sa Pinto
AEL
3-4-3Coach: Hugo Martins
Radosław Majecki99R. Majecki
Bruno7Bruno
David Goldar5D. Goldar
David Luiz4D. Luiz
Ken Sema12K. Sema
Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu13N. Moumie Ngamaleu
Ivan Šunjić26I. Šunjić
Vlad Dragomir30V. Dragomir
Pêpê88Pêpê
Nikolas Ioannou14N. Ioannou
Lelê18Lelê
Stefanos Kapino1S. Kapino
Evagoras Antoniou33E. Antoniou
Diogo Gomes23D. Gomes
Kypros Neofytou22K. Neofytou
Rémi Oudin10R. Oudin
Davor Zdravkovski6D. Zdravkovski
João Tavares20J. Tavares
Luther Singh11L. Singh
Giorgos Papageorgiou30G. Papageorgiou
François Régis Mughe77F. Régis Mughe
Stevan Jovetić9S. Jovetić

Pafos Substitutes

20Biel46'for N. Ioannou
6Guga55'for V. Dragomir90+2'
33Anderson Silva55'for I. Sunjic
2Yoram Zague66'for Bruno
8Domingos Quina66'for N. Moumi Ngamaleu
71Michalis Papastylianou
82Petros Petrou
3Samy Mmaee
23Jonatás Noro
72Kosmas Ioannou
60Christos Efzona
17Afonso Patrao

AEL Substitutes

35Sérgio Conceição66'for S. Jovetic
74Samy Merzouk
98Panagiotis Kyriakou
2Andreas Karo90'for G. Papageorgiou
4Stefano Denswil75'for J. Tavares
70Kyriakos Kyriakou
17Danil Paroutis
80Jair Tavares71'75'for L. Singh75'replaced by S. Denswil
75Simonas Christofi
84Christos Karamani
99Chinedu Geoffrey

Team Comparison

PafosPafos
AELAEL
1655Elo Rating 1576
0.96Attack 1.72
1.70Defense 1.76
17%Hit Rate 86%
13.2Shots per Game -
4.4Shots on Target -
6.6Corners per Game -
2.0Cards per Game -

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.25 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

PafosPafos
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0 in first half)
AELAEL
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.6 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

PafosPafos10Wins · 100%
Draws00%
AELAEL0Wins · 0%
2.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Cup22/04/2026
PafosAEL
31
Cup08/04/2026
AELPafos
12
1. Division15/02/2026
AELPafos
01
1. Division02/11/2025
PafosAEL
10
1. Division06/01/2025
PafosAEL
40
1. Division22/09/2024
AELPafos
13
1. Division23/12/2023
AELPafos
12
1. Division02/09/2023
PafosAEL
31
1. Division08/02/2023
PafosAEL
10
1. Division06/11/2022
AELPafos
13

Recent Form

AELAEL
4W2D4L
11/09/2026
AELNea Salamis
21
W
06/09/2026
Apoel NicosiaAEL
60
L
30/08/2026
AELAnorthosis
20
W
19/08/2026
Krasava OdintsovoAEL
04
W
09/08/2026
Radomiak RadomAEL
11
D
15/05/2026
AkritasAEL
12
W
09/05/2026
AELOlympiakos
13
L
02/05/2026
Krasava YpsonasAEL
11
D
27/04/2026
AELAnorthosis
01
L
22/04/2026
PafosAEL
31
L

Referee Profile

Marios Christoforou115 matches

3.67Cards per match
3.58Yellow cards per match
0.08Red cards per match
27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marios Christoforou3.67
Other referees4.73

3.67 cards a match, 1.06 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.73).

Cards come from 12 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

1. Division 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca751113:5+816WDWWL
2Apollon LimassolApollon Limassol743019:8+1115WWWDD
3AELAEL750211:11015LWWWW
4Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia733113:6+712LDWWD
5PafosPafos73317:3+412DDWLW
6ArisAris733110:9+112WDWDW
7Apoel NicosiaApoel Nicosia732216:9+711WDWDL
8Omonia 29is MaiouOmonia 29is Maiou722312:13-18LWLLD
9AnorthosisAnorthosis72056:13-76WLLLW
10OlympiakosOlympiakos706111:12-16DDLDD
11Omonia AradippouOmonia Aradippou71334:8-46LLLDD
12Nea SalamisNea Salamis712411:15-45DLLWL
13Krasava YpsonasKrasava Ypsonas71156:15-94DWLLL
14KarmiotissaKarmiotissa70344:16-123LLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca713:516
2Apollon LimassolApollon Limassol719:815
3AELAEL711:1115
4Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia713:612
5PafosPafos77:312
6ArisAris710:912
7Apoel NicosiaApoel Nicosia716:911
8Omonia 29is MaiouOmonia 29is Maiou712:138
9AnorthosisAnorthosis76:136
10OlympiakosOlympiakos711:126
11Omonia AradippouOmonia Aradippou74:86
12Nea SalamisNea Salamis711:155
13Krasava YpsonasKrasava Ypsonas76:154
14KarmiotissaKarmiotissa74:163
PromotionRelegation

About the Pafos vs AEL forecast

The forecasts for this 1. Division match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Pafos and AEL in the 1. Division table

AEL and Pafos are close in the 1. Division table, 3rd and 5th, with 3 points between them. League goal record so far: Pafos 7-3, AEL 11-11. The full standings are on the 1. Division Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.