Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin Prediction

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin·Szymon Marciniak, Poland 08/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.51
SignalHIGHModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+14.0%
Pogon Szczecin Rest
4 days
Motor Lublin Rest
7 days

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin: result, form and history

Pogon Szczecin beat Motor Lublin 3-1 in the Ekstraklasa on 8 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 4 previous meetings averaged 4.3 goals, and both sides scored in 3 of them. Motor Lublin tend to win more corners, 6.8 a game to 2.7 for Pogon Szczecin.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
48%2.01
X
27%3.58
2
25%3.30
Double Chance
1X
75%1.30
X2
53%1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.50
No
45%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.47 + 1.26 = 2.73
Over 1.5
76%1.17
Over 2.5
51%1.59
Over 3.5
26%2.42
Under 1.5
24%4.60
Under 2.5
49%2.29
Under 3.5
74%1.51
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.7 = 9.6
Over 8.5
62%1.33
Over 9.5
50%1.56
Over 10.5
39%1.93
Under 8.5
38%2.85
Under 9.5
50%2.22
Under 10.5
61%1.80
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.1 = 4.3
Over 3.5
51%1.44
Over 4.5
32%1.95
Under 3.5
49%2.47
Under 4.5
68%1.76

Match Events

17'D. Churlinov
43'A. SzalaiAssist: L. Wahlqvist
57'M. Wojciechowski INK. Acosta out
57'D. Churlinov INF. Cuic out
59'Tin PlavotićFoul
65'T. Santos INM. Aiko out
66'Leo Borges INB. Mendy out
68'Fábio RonaldoFoul
77'Fabio Ronaldo INK. Lukoszek out
80'M. Juwara INK. Grosicki out
80'P. Mukairu INH. Ali out
82'Kikis INP. Meyer out
82'Y. Bourhane IND. Gregorski out
84'Dimitrios KeramitsisFoul
90'M. AikoAssist: D. Gregorski
90'K. AcostaAssist: K. Grosicki

Lineups

Pogon Szczecin
4-2-3-1Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent
Motor Lublin
4-1-4-1Coach: Mariusz Misiura
Avg rating6.93
Avg rating6.69
V. Cojocaru7.577V. Cojocaru
L. Wahlqvist6.728L. Wahlqvist
D. Keramitsis6.713D. Keramitsis
A. Szalai7.341A. Szalai
Leo Borges7.24L. Borges
F. Ulvestad7.38F. Ulvestad
P. Dziczek7.016P. Dziczek
M. WojciechowskiC6.535M. Wojciechowski
M. Juwara7.57M. Juwara
D. Churlinov6.621D. Churlinov
P. Mukairu6.918P. Mukairu
M. Popa7.271M. Popa
T. Santos6.229T. Santos
B. Bereszynski6.618B. Bereszynski
T. Plavotic5.94T. Plavotic
F. Luberecki6.724F. Luberecki
Y. Bourhane7.227Y. Bourhane
M. Ndiaye7.230M. Ndiaye
Kikis7.28Kikis
M. Legowski6.26M. Legowski
Fabio Ronaldo6.011F. Ronaldo
K. CzubakC6.910K. Czubak

Pogon Szczecin Substitutes

83A. Holewinski
11K. Grosicki80'for M. Juwara7.2
6J. Bieganski
15H. Ali80'for P. Mukairu6.2
23B. Mendy66'for Leo Borges6.6
3K. Acosta57'for M. Wojciechowski90'7.3
17J. Nsame
19M. Ndiaye
29L. Willen
10F. Cuic57'for D. Churlinov6.3
30J. Czaplinski
47N. Lawa

Motor Lublin Substitutes

33G. Tratnik
99P. Kukulski
70M. Aiko65'for T. Santos90'7.7
2P. Meyer82'for Kikis6.3
5A. Akatov
16F. Lewandowski
39M. Bartos
23F. Haxha
17K. Lukoszek77'for Fabio Ronaldo6.3
90D. Gregorski82'for Y. Bourhane6.7

Match Stats

Pogon SzczecinMotor Lublin
44%Ball Possession56%
2Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots16
6Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal8
10Shots Inside Box8
5Shots Outside Box8
3Blocked Shots4
11Fouls9
1Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves3
387Total Passes486
319Passes Accurate416
82%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin
Motor LublinMotor Lublin
1634Elo Rating 1528
2.31Attack 2.08
2.03Defense 1.50
100%Hit Rate 58%
11.3Shots per Game 23.2
4.6Shots on Target 8.9
2.7Corners per Game 6.8
1.1Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+106 Elo
📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.9 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Motor LublinMotor Lublin
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.5 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin2Wins · 50%
Draws00%
Motor LublinMotor Lublin2Wins · 50%
4.3Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored3 of 4
100%3+ goals4 of 4

Previous meetings

Ekstraklasa01/02/2026
Motor LublinPogon Szczecin
21
Ekstraklasa26/07/2025
Pogon SzczecinMotor Lublin
41
Ekstraklasa14/05/2025
Pogon SzczecinMotor Lublin
30
Ekstraklasa02/11/2024
Motor LublinPogon Szczecin
42

Recent Form

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin
4W1D5L
03/08/2026
Cracovia KrakowPogon Szczecin
02
W
24/07/2026
Pogon SzczecinLegia Warszawa
01
L
15/07/2026
Sturm GrazPogon Szczecin
10
L
11/07/2026
FenerbahçePogon Szczecin
40
L
08/07/2026
Pogon SzczecinChrobry Głogów
21
W
04/07/2026
Zaglebie LubinPogon Szczecin
20
L
27/06/2026
BFC DynamoPogon Szczecin
03
W
23/05/2026
Pogon SzczecinGKS Katowice
11
D
15/05/2026
Zaglebie LubinPogon Szczecin
01
W
09/05/2026
JagielloniaPogon Szczecin
32
L
Motor LublinMotor Lublin
5W2D3L
31/07/2026
Motor LublinJagiellonia
12
L
26/07/2026
Widzew ŁódźMotor Lublin
22
D
17/07/2026
Motor LublinHapoel Katamon
20
W
11/07/2026
Motor LublinPolonia Warszawa
21
W
03/07/2026
Motor LublinWarta Poznań
41
W
27/06/2026
Motor LublinDinamo Bucuresti
31
W
23/05/2026
Legia WarszawaMotor Lublin
40
L
16/05/2026
Motor LublinCracovia Krakow
33
D
10/05/2026
Wisla PlockMotor Lublin
04
W
02/05/2026
Motor LublinLech Poznan
01
L

Referee Profile

Szymon Marciniak298 matches

4.23Cards per match
4.09Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Szymon Marciniak4.20
Other referees4.28

4.20 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.28).

Cards come from 270 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Lech PoznanLech Poznan12101132:11+2131WWWWW
2Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1384121:11+1028DDDWD
3Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1366123:11+1224DLDWW
4Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1273220:12+824LWWWW
5Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1364316:15+122WDWLL
6GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1370625:19+621WLLWW
7Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1363424:20+421DWDWL
8Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1363420:18+221LWDLW
9JagielloniaJagiellonia1260617:18-118WWLLL
10Korona KielceKorona Kielce1353514:19-518LWLLW
11Motor LublinMotor Lublin1344519:22-316WDWWD
12Wisla PlockWisla Plock1243512:18-615DLWLW
13Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1333715:21-612LLDWL
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1318417:19-211LDDLD
15Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom1332815:29-1411WLLLL
16Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1323817:25-89LWLLL
17Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa13301019:29-109WLWLL
18Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1322917:26-98LLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Lech PoznanLech Poznan1232:1131
2Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1321:1128
3Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1323:1124
4Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1220:1224
5Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1316:1522
6GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1325:1921
7Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1324:2021
8Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1320:1821
9JagielloniaJagiellonia1217:1818
10Korona KielceKorona Kielce1314:1918
11Motor LublinMotor Lublin1319:2216
12Wisla PlockWisla Plock1212:1815
13Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1315:2112
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1317:1911
15Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom1315:2911
16Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1317:259
17Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa1319:299
18Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1317:268
Relegation

About the Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin in the Ekstraklasa table

In the Ekstraklasa table, Pogon Szczecin are 4th and Motor Lublin 11th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Pogon Szczecin 20-12, Motor Lublin 19-22. The full standings are on the Ekstraklasa Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.