Port Vale vs Chesterfield Prediction

Port Vale
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Chesterfield
Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel39%SurpriseHighGap-5.8%
Port Vale Rest
7 days
Chesterfield Rest
7 days

Port Vale vs Chesterfield: the result in context

Port Vale beat Chesterfield 1-0 in the League Two on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 3 previous meetings produced 1.7 goals a game. Chesterfield tend to win more corners, 6.9 a game to 4.8 for Port Vale.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.80
X
29%3.27
2
36%2.44
Double Chance
1X
64%1.50
X2
65%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.80
No
46%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.3 + 1.42 = 2.72
Over 1.5
73%1.30
Over 2.5
48%2.04
Over 3.5
28%3.58
Under 1.5
27%3.25
Under 2.5
52%1.75
Under 3.5
72%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 5.2 = 9.9
Over 8.5
64%1.49
Over 9.5
52%1.82
Over 10.5
41%2.32
Under 8.5
36%2.42
Under 9.5
48%1.88
Under 10.5
59%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.2 = 4.1
Over 3.5
58%-
Over 4.5
39%-
Under 3.5
42%-
Under 4.5
61%-

Match Events

15'Cameron HumphreysFoul
30'Jordan GabrielFoul
33'Joel Randall INJosh Koroma out
45'Onel Hernández
54'Ryan StirkFoul
59'Jaheim·HeadleyFoul
64'Lewis GordonFoul
65'Max Watters INOliver Lynch out
66'Onel Hernández INKeyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales out
69'Jon Edmund Alexander BradyDissent
73'George Cardinal Joseph·Hall INGeorge Byers out
73'Jaheim·Headley INKyle John out
79'Kyle Dempsey INRhys Walters out
79'Lewis Gordon INTom Pearce out
79'Ryan Stirk INLiam Mandeville out
80'Louie Marsh INKiano Dyer out
84'Dilan Markanday INWill Grigg out

Lineups

Port Vale
3-5-2Coach: J. Brady
Chesterfield
4-2-3-1Coach: P. Cook
Avg rating6.73
Avg rating6.37
M. Maroši7.220M. Maroši
C. Humphreys6.625C. Humphreys
J. Moon7.24J. Moon
C. Hall6.15C. Hall
J. Lawrence-Gabriel6.36J. Lawrence-Gabriel
K. Dempsey6.510K. Dempsey
G. Hall6.133G. Hall
B. Garrity6.68B. Garrity
J. Headley6.33J. Headley
M. Watters6.436M. Watters
O. Hernández7.911O. Hernández
R. Boot6.123R. Boot
R. Hutton6.633R. Hutton
K. McFadzean6.85K. McFadzean
J. Simpson6.86J. Simpson
L. Gordon6.719L. Gordon
G. McEachran6.420G. McEachran
R. Stirk6.68R. Stirk
D. Markanday6.524D. Markanday
L. Marsh5.918L. Marsh
J. Randall6.131J. Randall
L. Bonis6.110L. Bonis

Port Vale Substitutes

27M. Asamoah
7G. Byers73'for George Cardinal Joseph·Hall7.0
2K. John73'for Jaheim·Headley7.0
1J. Smith
38R. Walters79'for Kyle Dempsey6.9
24K. Figueroa66'for Onel Hernández6.8
14O. Lynch65'for Max Watters 6.9

Chesterfield Substitutes

4T. Naylor
46T. Pearce79'for Lewis Gordon6.3
7L. Mandeville79'for Ryan Stirk6.2
37J. Koroma33'for Joel Randall6.4
28W. Grigg84'for Dilan Markanday6.3
27K. Dyer80'for Louie Marsh6.3
26J. Eccleston

Match Stats

Port ValeChesterfield
36%Ball Possession64%
0Corner Kicks10
3Yellow Cards2
5Total Shots8
3Shots on Goal4
2Shots off Goal3
1Shots Inside Box3
4Shots Outside Box5
0Blocked Shots1
14Fouls6
3Offsides5
4Goalkeeper Saves2
319Total Passes558
222Passes Accurate444
6Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

Port ValePort Vale
ChesterfieldChesterfield
1518Elo Rating 1593
0.87Attack 2.47
2.23Defense 1.69
50%Hit Rate 41%
11.0Shots per Game 16.9
4.1Shots on Target 5.1
4.8Corners per Game 6.9
1.4Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Port ValePort Vale
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ChesterfieldChesterfield
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.9 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Port ValePort Vale1Wins · 33%
Draws267%
ChesterfieldChesterfield0Wins · 0%
1.7Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
0%3+ goals0 of 3

Previous meetings

EFL Trophy22/09/2026
ChesterfieldPort Vale
4131
League Two25/01/2025
ChesterfieldPort Vale
11
League Two14/09/2024
Port ValeChesterfield
10

Recent Form

Port ValePort Vale
3W2D5L
10/10/2026
Port ValeGrimsby
10
W
06/10/2026
Port ValeMansfield Town
20
W
22/09/2026
ChesterfieldPort Vale
4131
L
19/09/2026
WalsallPort Vale
20
L
12/09/2026
Port ValeExeter City
10
W
05/09/2026
Salford CityPort Vale
10
L
01/09/2026
Swindon TownPort Vale
31
L
29/08/2026
Port ValeCrewe
00
D
22/08/2026
Port ValeTranmere
11
D
15/08/2026
OldhamPort Vale
20
L
ChesterfieldChesterfield
5W3D2L
10/10/2026
Crawley TownChesterfield
22
D
03/10/2026
ChesterfieldTranmere
42
W
26/09/2026
CheltenhamChesterfield
21
L
22/09/2026
ChesterfieldPort Vale
4131
W
19/09/2026
ChesterfieldYork
20
W
15/09/2026
ChesterfieldManchester City U21
53
W
12/09/2026
OldhamChesterfield
12
W
05/09/2026
ChesterfieldBarnet
33
D
01/09/2026
ChesterfieldGillingham
11
D
29/08/2026
RotherhamChesterfield
21
L

League Table

League Two 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Salford CitySalford City1391323:14+928WWWWW
2BarnetBarnet1274127:17+1025WDLWW
3CheltenhamCheltenham1363422:22021WWLLL
4CreweCrewe1356216:16021LLWWW
5YorkYork1355322:16+620LWDDD
6WalsallWalsall1247118:11+719LWDDD
7ChesterfieldChesterfield1354423:17+619WDLDW
8Exeter CityExeter City1354410:7+319WWDWW
9Accrington STAccrington ST1346322:16+618WDWDW
10ShrewsburyShrewsbury1353516:20-418DWWLW
11GrimsbyGrimsby1345419:16+317WDLLL
12GillinghamGillingham1345418:18017LDLWD
13TranmereTranmere1337316:16016DWLDL
14Swindon TownSwindon Town1344513:16-316DWDLL
15Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1351716:20-416DLLLL
16Newport CountyNewport County1336416:16015LDDWD
17RochdaleRochdale1343615:22-715LDLDW
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1335515:17-214LLWDL
19NorthamptonNorthampton113448:8013WLWDL
20OldhamOldham1233614:18-412DLWDL
21ColchesterColchester1226411:16-512LDDLD
22RotherhamRotherham1326517:23-612DDLLL
23Port ValePort Vale113356:12-612LDWWL
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1113712:21-96DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Salford CitySalford City1323:1428
2BarnetBarnet1227:1725
3CheltenhamCheltenham1322:2221
4CreweCrewe1316:1621
5YorkYork1322:1620
6WalsallWalsall1218:1119
7ChesterfieldChesterfield1323:1719
8Exeter CityExeter City1310:719
9Accrington STAccrington ST1322:1618
10ShrewsburyShrewsbury1316:2018
11GrimsbyGrimsby1319:1617
12GillinghamGillingham1318:1817
13TranmereTranmere1316:1616
14Swindon TownSwindon Town1313:1616
15Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1316:2016
16Newport CountyNewport County1316:1615
17RochdaleRochdale1315:2215
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1315:1714
19NorthamptonNorthampton118:813
20OldhamOldham1214:1812
21ColchesterColchester1211:1612
22RotherhamRotherham1317:2312
23Port ValePort Vale116:1212
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1112:216
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About the Port Vale vs Chesterfield forecast

The forecasts for this League Two match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Port Vale and Chesterfield in the League Two table

In the League Two table, Chesterfield are 7th and Port Vale 23rd, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Port Vale 6-12, Chesterfield 23-17. The full standings are on the League Two Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Port Vale have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Chesterfield have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.