Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX Prediction
USA · Group Stage
Heart Health Park·S. Cardozo 02/08/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.30
SignalGOODModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-2.7%
Sacramento Republic Rest
7 days
Sporting JAX Rest
7 days
Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX: the result in context
Sacramento Republic beat Sporting JAX 5-0 in the USL Championship on 2 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
174%1.30
X17%5.05
29%7.90
Double Chance
1X91%1.05
X226%3.19
Both Teams to Score
Yes44%1.84
No56%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1 = 2.20
Over 1.564%1.14
Over 2.539%1.53
Over 3.519%2.36
Under 1.536%4.50
Under 2.561%2.32
Under 3.581%1.53
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
7'T. WolffAssist: J. Casas
14'H. NevilleFoul
25'E. JaaskelainenUnsportsmanlike conduct
29'V. AlvaradoFoul
38'J. TimmerAssist: M. Rodriguez
40'T. WolffAssist: M. Rodriguez
43'L. DesmondAssist: M. Rodriguez
47'L. DesmondFoul
61'V. Alvarado INA. Gomez out
65'J. Gurr INT. Leibold out
65'M. Kaye IND. Crisostomo out
66'M. Rodriguez INK. Edwards out
69'T. Wolff
72'M. Malango INA. Midence out
76'T. Rose INE. Rito out
76'R. Pedder INJ. Evans out
77'K. Sadlier INJean Mota out
81'B. Willey INA. Rodriguez out
85'J. RossiterFoul
Lineups
Sacramento RepublicSporting JAX
Sacramento Republic Starting XI
1D. Vitiello
2J. Gurr65'replaced by T. Leibold
55C. Ukaegbu
5J. Timmer38'
4L. Desmond43'47'
24J. Casas
18M. Kaye65'replaced by D. Crisostomo
20B. Willey81'replaced by A. Rodriguez
8M. Rodriguez66'replaced by K. Edwards
7M. Malango72'replaced by A. Midence
16T. Wolff7'40'69'
Sporting JAX Starting XI
1J. McGuire
18W. Ackwei
13V. Alvarado29'61'replaced by A. Gomez
27D. Wilson
2H. Neville14'
44R. Somersall
6J. Rossiter85'
3T. Rose76'replaced by E. Rito
19R. Pedder76'replaced by J. Evans
16E. Jaaskelainen25'
10K. Sadlier77'replaced by Jean Mota
Sacramento Republic Substitutes
31J. Randolph
27D. Crisostomo65'for M. Kaye
6F. Kleemann
19A. Midence72'for M. Malango
21T. Leibold65'for J. Gurr
71K. Edwards66'for M. Rodriguez
10A. Rodriguez81'for B. Willey
11F. Ajago
43R. Paskey
Sporting JAX Substitutes
42E. Casas
14Jean Mota77'for K. Sadlier
12E. Rito76'for T. Rose
7J. Evans76'for R. Pedder
4E. Dudley
26L. Granitur
22A. Gomez61'for V. Alvarado
Team Comparison
Sacramento RepublicSporting JAX1579Elo Rating 1313
1.82Attack 0.31
1.82Defense 0.58
64%Hit Rate 0%
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+266 Elo
Game State Tendencies
Sacramento Republic- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Sporting JAX- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.3 vs 0 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Recent Form
Sacramento Republic5W1D4L
26/07/2026
Oakland RootsSacramento Republic
Charleston BatterySacramento RepublicSacramento Republic
Rhode IslandSacramento Republic
New Mexico United
Colorado SpringsSacramento RepublicSacramento Republic
Monterey Bay
Oakland RootsSacramento Republic13
W19/07/2026Charleston BatterySacramento Republic11
D12/07/2026
BoiseSacramento Republic
09/07/2026BoiseSacramento Republic20
LSacramento RepublicRhode Island21
W21/06/2026Sacramento RepublicNew Mexico United01
L14/06/2026Colorado SpringsSacramento Republic01
W07/06/2026Sacramento RepublicMonterey Bay5131
W31/05/2026
Phoenix RisingSacramento Republic
Phoenix RisingSacramento Republic20
L24/05/2026
San AntonioSacramento Republic
San AntonioSacramento Republic21
L17/05/2026Oakland RootsSacramento Republic
Oakland RootsSacramento Republic01
WSporting JAX1W3D6L
26/07/2026
El Paso LocomotiveSporting JAXSporting JAX
BrooklynSporting JAX
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Loudoun UnitedSporting JAXSporting JAXCharleston BatterySporting JAX
Detroit CityMonterey BaySporting JAX
El Paso LocomotiveSporting JAX20
L19/07/2026Sporting JAXBrooklyn22
D16/07/2026Sporting JAXPittsburgh Riverhounds21
W08/07/2026
AustinSporting JAX
04/07/2026AustinSporting JAX40
LLoudoun UnitedSporting JAX22
D21/06/2026Sporting JAXCharleston Battery25
L14/06/2026Sporting JAXDetroit City26
L11/06/2026Monterey BaySporting JAX21
L07/06/2026Sporting JAX
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Sporting JAXTampa Bay Rowdies02
L31/05/2026Sporting JAXBrooklyn
Sporting JAXBrooklyn22
DLeague Table
USL Championship — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 52:26 | +26 | 61 | WWWLD |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 56:35 | +21 | 53 | WWDLW |
| 3 | Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 34:21 | +13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 51:43 | +8 | 47 | DWWWD |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 33:30 | +3 | 45 | WDWLL |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 35:33 | +2 | 43 | WLDLD |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42:33 | +9 | 42 | LDWLW |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 39:49 | -10 | 36 | LLWWW |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 35:41 | -6 | 34 | LLLDL |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 38:48 | -10 | 31 | WDLWD |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 40:46 | -6 | 30 | LWDWL |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 34:63 | -29 | 21 | LLWLL |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 32:78 | -46 | 14 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 52:26 | 61 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | 56:35 | 53 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 30 | 34:21 | 51 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 51:43 | 47 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 33:30 | 45 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | 35:33 | 43 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 42:33 | 42 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 39:49 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 35:41 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 30 | 38:48 | 31 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | 40:46 | 30 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 30 | 34:63 | 21 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 30 | 32:78 | 14 |
USL Championship — Group 2
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 45:34 | +11 | 52 | WLWWL |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 42:28 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 48:38 | +10 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 57:39 | +18 | 48 | DWDWW |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 44:38 | +6 | 47 | WWDDD |
| 6 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 32:30 | +2 | 45 | WWDLD |
| 7 |  FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 34:31 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 45:46 | -1 | 40 | DWWLL |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39:49 | -10 | 39 | LLLLW |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 39:40 | -1 | 38 | LWDDW |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 41:48 | -7 | 36 | LLLWL |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 32:52 | -20 | 24 | WLLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 45:34 | 52 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 42:28 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 48:38 | 50 |
| 4 | Lexington | 30 | 57:39 | 48 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 44:38 | 47 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 30 | 32:30 | 45 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 34:31 | 43 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 45:46 | 40 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 39:49 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 39:40 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 41:48 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 32:52 | 24 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More USL Championship matches
- Miami FC vs Detroit City 02/08/26
- New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs 02/08/26
- Oakland Roots vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds 02/08/26
- Orange County SC vs El Paso Locomotive 02/08/26
- Birmingham Legion vs Rhode Island 03/08/26
- Las Vegas Lights vs Oakland Roots 06/08/26
- Lexington vs Phoenix Rising 09/08/26
- Loudoun United vs Charleston Battery 09/08/26
About the Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX forecast
The forecasts for this USL Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About USL Championship
More USL Championship fixtures and forecasts are on the USL Championship Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
Sacramento Republic and Sporting JAX have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.