Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction

Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg·Willy Delajod 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap-1.0%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.45
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+5.6%
Strasbourg Rest
6 days
Paris Saint Germain Rest
2 days

Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain: the result in context

Paris Saint Germain beat Strasbourg 3-1 in the Ligue 1 on 17 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Paris Saint Germain had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Strasbourg.

Paris Saint Germain have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 4.1 goals a game. Paris Saint Germain tend to win more corners, 4.0 a game to 1.8 for Strasbourg.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
15%6.68
X
20%5.50
2
65%1.40
Double Chance
1X
35%2.92
X2
85%1.12
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%1.48
No
36%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.23 + 2.45 = 3.68
Over 1.5
88%1.06
Over 2.5
73%1.33
Over 3.5
51%1.88
Under 1.5
12%7.10
Under 2.5
27%3.20
Under 3.5
49%1.95
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.3 + 5.3 = 9.5
Over 8.5
59%1.66
Over 9.5
47%2.06
Over 10.5
37%2.70
Under 8.5
41%2.11
Under 9.5
53%1.70
Under 10.5
63%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.7 = 3.5
Over 3.5
47%2.15
Over 4.5
28%3.55
Under 3.5
53%1.65
Under 4.5
72%1.27

Match Events

17'Giovanni ReynaAssist: Gessime Yassine
53'Lucas Digne INNuno Mendes out
54'Dro Fernández INDésiré Doue out
54'Lucas Beraldo INVitinha out
60'Fábio Baldé INSamuel Amo-Ameyaw out
63'João Neves INAchraf Hakimi out
63'Khvicha Kvaratskhelia INOusmane Dembélé out
70'Penalty confirmedDésiré Doue
72'Ousmane Dembélé(Penalty missed)
75'Pape Demba Diop INSamir El-Mourabet out
76'Conrad HarderFoul
77'Ilya ZabarnyiAssist: Ousmane Dembélé
78'Dario EssugoFoul
83'Gessime Yassine INYaya Dieme out
83'Conrad Harder INJacobo Ortega out
85'Ousmane Dembélé
90+3'Désiré DoueAssist: Ferrán Torres

Lineups

Strasbourg
4-2-3-1Coach: Hugo Oliveira
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3Coach: Luis Enrique
Avg rating6.54
Avg rating7.07
F. Jörgensen6.51F. Jörgensen
G. Antwi7.116G. Antwi
J. Mitchell6.94J. Mitchell
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly6.831A. Karim Coulibaly
Oso6.736Oso
Dário Essugo6.214D. Essugo
P. Diop6.421P. Diop
Gessime Yassine6.580G. Yassine
G. Reyna7.410G. Reyna
Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé6.319F. Amadu Uri Baldé
C. Harder6.940C. Harder
M. Safonov8.639M. Safonov
W. Zaïre-Emery6.433W. Zaïre-Emery
I. Zabarnyi8.06I. Zabarnyi
L. Hernández6.821L. Hernández
L. Digne6.712L. Digne
João Neves6.687J. Neves
Pedro Fernández7.227P. Fernández
Beraldo6.84Beraldo
M. Akliouche6.311M. Akliouche
Ferran Torres7.39F. Torres
K. Kvaratskhelia6.47K. Kvaratskhelia

Strasbourg Substitutes

23Diogo Sousa
12M. Piekutowski
30J. Ortega83'for Conrad Harder6.3
28Tyrese Noubissie
24L. Høgsberg
29S. El Mourabet75'for Pape Demba Diop6.0
35Yaya Dieme83'replaced by Gessime Yassine
43Y. Becker
7S. Amo-Ameyaw60'for Fábio Baldé6.4

Paris Saint Germain Substitutes

17Vitinha54'for Lucas Beraldo7.2
8Fabián Ruiz
51W. Pacho
25Nuno Mendes53'for Lucas Digne6.6
2A. Hakimi63'for João Neves6.7
22M. Godts
14D. Doué54'for Dro Fernández90+3'7.8
10O. Dembélé63'for Khvicha Kvaratskhelia85'8.0
30L. Chevalier

Match Stats

StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
27%Ball Possession73%
3Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards0
17Total Shots18
8Shots on Goal7
7Shots off Goal5
14Shots Inside Box14
3Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots6
12Fouls6
2Offsides0
4Goalkeeper Saves7
246Total Passes672
194Passes Accurate617
6Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

StrasbourgStrasbourg
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
1762Elo Rating 2046
1.70Attack 3.32
0.90Defense 1.54
14%Hit Rate 100%
12.9Shots per Game 21.0
5.1Shots on Target 10.1
1.8Corners per Game 4.0
1.5Cards per Game 0.3

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.68 goals
📈BTTS Trend90% in H2H
⚠️Away Rotation Risk60%

Game State Tendencies

StrasbourgStrasbourg
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.3 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

StrasbourgStrasbourg1Wins · 10%
Draws330%
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain6Wins · 60%
4.1Avg Goals
90%Both teams scored9 of 10
90%3+ goals9 of 10

Previous meetings

Ligue 101/02/2026
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
12
Ligue 117/10/2025
Paris Saint GermainStrasbourg
33
Ligue 103/05/2025
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
21
Ligue 119/10/2024
Paris Saint GermainStrasbourg
42
Ligue 102/02/2024
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
12
Ligue 121/10/2023
Paris Saint GermainStrasbourg
30
Ligue 127/05/2023
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
11
Ligue 128/12/2022
Paris Saint GermainStrasbourg
21
Ligue 129/04/2022
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
33
Ligue 114/08/2021
Paris Saint GermainStrasbourg
42

Referee Profile

Willy Delajod174 matches

3.93Cards per match
3.64Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Willy Delajod3.94
Other referees4.00

3.94 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.00).

Cards come from 167 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain962121:10+1120WWWWW
2RennesRennes951320:19+116LWLWL
3LilleLille843111:6+515DDWLW
4MonacoMonaco843111:7+415DLDWD
5LyonLyon842213:7+614LWLWD
6Paris FCParis FC842213:9+414LWLWD
7NiceNice942313:12+114WWLWW
8LensLens841316:12+413WWWLD
9MarseilleMarseille840418:13+512WWWLL
10LorientLorient83327:6+112DWWLD
11ToulouseToulouse824212:11+110DWDWD
12AuxerreAuxerre831412:18-610DWLWW
13Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29823314:12+29LDWLL
14AngersAngers82249:15-68DLLWD
15Le MansLe Mans814311:16-57DLLWD
16StrasbourgStrasbourg821512:18-67LLLLD
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes81255:16-115DLLLL
18Le HavreLe Havre90279:20-112LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain921:1020
2RennesRennes920:1916
3LilleLille811:615
4MonacoMonaco811:715
5LyonLyon813:714
6Paris FCParis FC813:914
7NiceNice913:1214
8LensLens816:1213
9MarseilleMarseille818:1312
10LorientLorient87:612
11ToulouseToulouse812:1110
12AuxerreAuxerre812:1810
13Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29814:129
14AngersAngers89:158
15Le MansLe Mans811:167
16StrasbourgStrasbourg812:187
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes85:165
18Le HavreLe Havre99:202
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain forecast

The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Strasbourg and Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1 table

The table shows a wide gap: Paris Saint Germain are 1st in the Ligue 1, while Strasbourg sit 16th, 13 points behind. League goal record so far: Strasbourg 12-18, Paris Saint Germain 21-10. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.