Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction

Lille
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille·Clement Turpin 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.28
SignalGOODModel55%SurpriseMediumGap-4.2%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Over 1.5
1.53
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+5.1%
Lille Rest
3 days
Stade Brestois 29 Rest
7 days

Lille vs Stade Brestois 29: the result in context

Lille and Stade Brestois 29 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1 on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them. Referee Clement Turpin averages 3.58 cards a game, 0.52 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
49%1.95
X
25%3.76
2
26%3.79
Double Chance
1X
74%1.28
X2
51%1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.61
No
43%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.67 + 1.05 = 2.72
Over 1.5
77%1.20
Over 2.5
54%1.72
Over 3.5
34%2.70
Under 1.5
23%4.13
Under 2.5
46%2.15
Under 3.5
66%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.1 = 9.8
Over 8.5
62%1.59
Over 9.5
51%1.97
Over 10.5
40%2.50
Under 8.5
38%2.19
Under 9.5
49%1.71
Under 10.5
60%1.46
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.3 = 4.3
Over 3.5
63%2.10
Over 4.5
43%2.83
Under 3.5
37%1.70
Under 4.5
57%1.42

Match Events

6'Mama BaldéAssist: Gautier Lloris
13'Kamory DoumbiaFoul
45'Mama Baldé INJoseph Nonge out
54'Romain Perraud INCalvin Verdonk out
58'Bradley LockoFoul
64'Olivier Giroud(Penalty)
65'Dilane Bakwa INSoriba Diaoune out
65'Benjamin André INNabil Bentaleb out
77'Pathé Mboup INIbrahim Yayiya Kanté out
77'Ngal'ayel Mukau INMaurits Kjaergaard out
82'Kamory Doumbia INMamady Diambou out
90'Calvin VerdonkFoul

Lineups

Lille
4-2-3-1Coach: Davide Ancelotti
Stade Brestois 29
4-2-3-1Coach: Julien Lachuer
Avg rating6.67
Avg rating6.75
O. Gill6.812O. Gill
M. Goffi7.238M. Goffi
N. Ngoy6.83N. Ngoy
T. Nianzou6.723T. Nianzou
R. Perraud6.915R. Perraud
B. André6.521B. André
N. Mukau6.617N. Mukau
E. Mbappé6.38E. Mbappé
H. Haraldsson6.310H. Haraldsson
D. Bakwa7.07D. Bakwa
O. Giroud7.19O. Giroud
E. Selvik7.61E. Selvik
K. Lala6.670K. Lala
L. Tousart7.029L. Tousart
G. Lloris7.24G. Lloris
B. Locko6.72B. Locko
J. Chotard6.413J. Chotard
H. Magnetti6.58H. Magnetti
Mama Baldé7.617M. Baldé
K. Doumbia6.523K. Doumbia
P. Mboup6.49P. Mboup
L. Ajorque6.419L. Ajorque

Lille Substitutes

35S. Diaoune65'for Dilane Bakwa6.7
26I. Cossier
6N. Bentaleb65'for Benjamin André7.0
14M. Kjærgaard77'for Ngal'ayel Mukau6.4
40Zadig Lanssade
28G. Perrin
24C. Verdonk54'for Romain Perraud90'5.9
33Matah Yondjio
19B. Önal

Stade Brestois 29 Substitutes

21Ibrahim Yayiya Kante77'for Pathé Mboup6.6
6M. Diambou82'for Kamory Doumbia6.3
18J. Bourgault
33Enzo Monchatre
20L. Zogbe
30M. Patouillet
7J. Nonge Boende45'for Mama Baldé6.8
39D. N´Guessan

Match Stats

LilleStade Brestois 29
67%Ball Possession33%
5Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots8
5Shots on Goal2
9Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box6
7Shots Outside Box2
3Blocked Shots3
12Fouls20
3Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves4
645Total Passes320
584Passes Accurate248
19Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

LilleLille
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
1781Elo Rating 1698
1.07Attack 1.64
0.83Defense 1.56
17%Hit Rate 19%
12.5Shots per Game 12.6
3.8Shots on Target 5.1
3.6Corners per Game 3.0
1.7Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

LilleLille
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

LilleLille3Wins · 30%
Draws550%
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 292Wins · 20%
2.4Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

Ligue 114/02/2026
LilleStade Brestois 29
11
Ligue 117/08/2025
Stade Brestois 29Lille
33
Ligue 110/05/2025
Stade Brestois 29Lille
20
Ligue 106/12/2024
LilleStade Brestois 29
31
Ligue 117/03/2024
Stade Brestois 29Lille
11
Ligue 122/10/2023
LilleStade Brestois 29
10
Ligue 124/02/2023
LilleStade Brestois 29
21
Ligue 111/01/2023
Stade Brestois 29Lille
00
Ligue 122/01/2022
Stade Brestois 29Lille
20
Ligue 123/10/2021
LilleStade Brestois 29
11

Referee Profile

Clement Turpin268 matches

3.58Cards per match
3.34Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Clement Turpin3.58
Other referees4.10

3.58 cards a match, 0.52 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.10).

Cards come from 261 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain852116:9+717WWWWW
2RennesRennes851218:14+416WLWLW
3LilleLille843111:6+515DDWLW
4MonacoMonaco843111:7+415DLDWD
5LyonLyon842213:7+614LWLWD
6Paris FCParis FC842213:9+414LWLWD
7LensLens841316:12+413WWWLD
8MarseilleMarseille840418:13+512WWWLL
9LorientLorient83327:6+112DWWLD
10NiceNice83238:10-211WLWWL
11ToulouseToulouse824212:11+110DWDWD
12AuxerreAuxerre831412:18-610DWLWW
13Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29823314:12+29LDWLL
14AngersAngers82249:15-68DLLWD
15Le MansLe Mans814311:16-57DLLWD
16StrasbourgStrasbourg821512:18-67LLLLD
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes81255:16-115DLLLL
18Le HavreLe Havre80268:15-72LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain816:917
2RennesRennes818:1416
3LilleLille811:615
4MonacoMonaco811:715
5LyonLyon813:714
6Paris FCParis FC813:914
7LensLens816:1213
8MarseilleMarseille818:1312
9LorientLorient87:612
10NiceNice88:1011
11ToulouseToulouse812:1110
12AuxerreAuxerre812:1810
13Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29814:129
14AngersAngers89:158
15Le MansLe Mans811:167
16StrasbourgStrasbourg812:187
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes85:165
18Le HavreLe Havre88:152
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 forecast

The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1 table

In the Ligue 1 table, Lille are 3rd and Stade Brestois 29 13th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Lille 11-6, Stade Brestois 29 14-12. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Stade Brestois 29 have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.