Arsenal vs Lille Prediction

Arsenal
3-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Lille
Emirates Stadium, London·Felix Zwayer 13/10/2026
ArsenalArsenal
3-0
Finished
LilleLille

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.21
SignalSTRONGModel77%SurpriseMediumGap-0.3%
Arsenal Rest
3 days
Lille Rest
3 days

Arsenal vs Lille: the result in context

Arsenal beat Lille 3-0 in the UEFA Champions League on 13 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Felix Zwayer averages 4.93 cards a game, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
81%1.21
X
12%7.00
2
7%15.00
Double Chance
1X
93%1.03
X2
19%4.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%2.15
No
56%1.65
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.02 + 0.91 = 2.93
Over 1.5
80%1.13
Over 2.5
60%1.50
Over 3.5
38%2.31
Under 1.5
20%4.95
Under 2.5
40%2.50
Under 3.5
62%1.62
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 2.6 = 8.4
Over 8.5
59%1.52
Over 9.5
43%1.91
Over 10.5
28%2.45
Under 8.5
41%2.30
Under 9.5
57%1.82
Under 10.5
72%1.46
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.2 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%1.85
Over 4.5
40%2.38
Under 3.5
41%1.89
Under 4.5
60%1.57

Match Events

29'Mikel MerinoFoul
64'Jurriën TimberAssist: Noni Madueke
65'Viktor Gyökeres INKai Havertz out
65'Mikel Merino INMartin Odegaard out
65'Noni Madueke INBukayo Saka out
67'Eberechi EzeAssist: Bukayo Saka
71'Bukayo SakaAssist: Kai Havertz
72'Nabil Bentaleb INOsame Sahraoui out
72'Ngal'ayel Mukau INMaurits Kjaergaard out
78'Romain Perraud INCalvin Verdonk out
78'Ayase Ueda INOlivier Giroud out
78'Jurriën Timber INBen White out
81'Maxima GoffiFoul
82'Dilane Bakwa INSoriba Diaoune out
85'Eberechi Eze INMax Dowman out
90+2'Kai HavertzFoul

Lineups

Arsenal
4-2-3-1Coach: Mikel Arteta
Lille
4-2-3-1Coach: Davide Ancelotti
Avg rating7.22
Avg rating6.24
David Raya6.61D. Raya
J. Timber8.512J. Timber
E. Konsa7.515E. Konsa
Gabriel Magalhães7.06G. Magalhães
M. Lewis-Skelly7.549M. Lewis-Skelly
D. Rice7.241D. Rice
Bruno Guimarães7.039B. Guimarães
N. Madueke7.720N. Madueke
Mikel Merino6.523M. Merino
E. Eze8.210E. Eze
V. Gyökeres6.414V. Gyökeres
B. Özer6.71B. Özer
M. Goffi5.638M. Goffi
N. Ngoy6.53N. Ngoy
Alexsandro Ribeiro6.84A. Ribeiro
R. Perraud6.315R. Perraud
N. Bentaleb6.46N. Bentaleb
B. André6.221B. André
D. Bakwa6.47D. Bakwa
N. Mukau5.917N. Mukau
H. Haraldsson6.310H. Haraldsson
A. Ueda6.018A. Ueda

Arsenal Substitutes

33R. Calafiori
13Kepa
56M. Dowman85'for Eberechi Eze6.6
74M. Hashi
29K. Havertz65'for Viktor Gyökeres90+2'6.9
30I. Meslier
3Cristhian Mosquera
8M. Ødegaard65'for Mikel Merino7.2
7B. Saka65'for Noni Madueke71'7.9
89M. Salmon
4B. White78'for Jurriën Timber6.7
53C. O’Neill

Lille Substitutes

24C. Verdonk78'for Romain Perraud6.0
2L. Srdanovic
50Thomas Sajous
11O. Sahraoui72'for Nabil Bentaleb6.6
28G. Perrin
19B. Önal
23T. Nianzou
14M. Kjærgaard72'for Ngal'ayel Mukau5.9
9O. Giroud78'for Ayase Ueda6.1
12O. Gill
26I. Cossier
35S. Diaoune82'for Dilane Bakwa6.2

Match Stats

ArsenalLille
58%Ball Possession42%
7Corner Kicks0
2Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots4
8Shots on Goal0
3Shots off Goal1
12Shots Inside Box1
4Shots Outside Box3
5Blocked Shots3
13Fouls9
4Offsides3
0Goalkeeper Saves5
542Total Passes404
488Passes Accurate343
9Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

ArsenalArsenal
LilleLille
2045Elo Rating 1781
1.97Attack 1.07
2.40Defense 0.83
77%Hit Rate 17%
14.8Shots per Game 12.5
4.6Shots on Target 3.8
7.1Corners per Game 3.6
1.4Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+264 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.93 goals

Game State Tendencies

ArsenalArsenal
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.5 in first half)
LilleLille
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Referee Profile

Felix Zwayer248 matches

4.93Cards per match
4.77Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
23.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Felix Zwayer4.93
Other referees4.19

4.93 cards a match, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.19).

Cards come from 243 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Champions League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain330014:5+99WWW
2Aston VillaAston Villa330012:3+99WWW
3LiverpoolLiverpool330012:7+59WWW
4Real MadridReal Madrid330010:5+59WWW
5Real BetisReal Betis33007:4+39WWW
6VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart32107:2+57DWW
7ArsenalArsenal32106:2+47DWW
8BarcelonaBarcelona320111:6+56LWW
9ComoComo320110:5+56WLW
10Manchester CityManchester City32019:5+46WLW
11Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV32019:6+36WWL
12Sporting CPSporting CP32017:4+36LWW
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund32015:4+16WLW
14Bayern MünchenBayern München312010:5+55DDW
15AS RomaAS Roma31118:5+34WLD
16Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid31114:3+14DWL
17Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk31114:3+14LWD
18PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven31112:204WLD
19VillarrealVillarreal31028:803LWL
20InterInter31025:6-13WLL
21Manchester UnitedManchester United31025:6-13LLW
22NapoliNapoli31025:7-23WLL
23GalatasarayGalatasaray31026:9-33WLL
24Lask LinzLask Linz31026:9-33WLL
25Sabah FASabah FA31023:6-33LWL
26FeyenoordFeyenoord31024:8-43LWL
27LensLens31023:7-43LLW
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt31024:9-53LWL
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC31023:8-53LLW
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig31023:8-53LWL
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe30213:9-62DLD
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha30124:7-31DLL
33VikingViking30125:9-41LDL
34FC PortoFC Porto30032:6-40LLL
35LilleLille30034:10-60LLL
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava30031:13-120LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain314:59
2Aston VillaAston Villa312:39
3LiverpoolLiverpool312:79
4Real MadridReal Madrid310:59
5Real BetisReal Betis37:49
6VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart37:27
7ArsenalArsenal36:27
8BarcelonaBarcelona311:66
9ComoComo310:56
10Manchester CityManchester City39:56
11Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV39:66
12Sporting CPSporting CP37:46
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund35:46
14Bayern MünchenBayern München310:55
15AS RomaAS Roma38:54
16Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid34:34
17Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk34:34
18PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven32:24
19VillarrealVillarreal38:83
20InterInter35:63
21Manchester UnitedManchester United35:63
22NapoliNapoli35:73
23GalatasarayGalatasaray36:93
24Lask LinzLask Linz36:93
25Sabah FASabah FA33:63
26FeyenoordFeyenoord34:83
27LensLens33:73
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt34:93
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC33:83
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig33:83
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe33:92
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha34:71
33VikingViking35:91
34FC PortoFC Porto32:60
35LilleLille34:100
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava31:130

About the Arsenal vs Lille forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Arsenal and Lille in the UEFA Champions League table

In the UEFA Champions League table, Arsenal are 7th and Lille 35th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Arsenal 6-2, Lille 4-10. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Arsenal and Lille have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.