Toulouse vs Le Havre Prediction
France · Regular Season - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.67
SignalGOODModel69%SurpriseMediumGap+11.4%
Toulouse Rest
7 days
Le Havre Rest
7 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
151%1.70
X26%4.00
223%4.75
Double Chance
1X77%1.20
X249%2.12
Both Teams to Score
Yes55%1.66
No45%2.12
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.71 + 1.07 = 2.78
Over 1.575%1.20
Over 2.556%1.70
Over 3.536%2.62
Under 1.525%4.24
Under 2.544%2.19
Under 3.564%1.45
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.8 = 9.3
Over 8.561%1.44
Over 9.552%1.81
Over 10.538%2.23
Under 8.539%2.54
Under 9.548%1.95
Under 10.562%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.9 = 3.7
Over 3.551%1.55
Over 4.531%2.10
Under 3.549%2.40
Under 4.569%1.67
Match Events
34'Christ TapeFoul
49'Casper Tengstedt(Penalty)
51'Casper TengstedtAssist: Thomas Jorgensen
58'Niko SigurFoul
69'Rayan Fofana INEnzo Koffi out
69'Djibril Ouziad INSota Nakamura out
70'Vincent Sasso INJunior Mwanga out
71'Josh MajaAssist: Sota Nakamura
72'Casper Tengstedt INSantiago Hidalgo out
72'Ilyas Azizi INSion Oppong out
72'Rafik Messali INAlexis Vossah out
74'Seny KoumbassaFoul
79'Thomas JorgensenAssist: Cristian Casseres
81'Sota NakamuraFoul
82'Josh Maja INIsmail Bouneb out
82'Amir Richardson INRassoul Ndiaye out
88'Mbwana Ally Samatta
Lineups
ToulouseLe Havre
3-4-2-1Coach: D. DigardAvg ratingAvg rating
16G. Restes
22R. Messali
5S. Koumbassa
3M. McKenzie
12C. Tapé
8T. Jørgensen
14N. Sigur
23C. Cásseres
37Y. Azizi
13J. Russell-Rowe
20C. Tengstedt
93G. Gallon
23V. Sasso
15A. Seko
5A. Touba
20D. Ouziad
26S. Ebonog
7A. Richardson
12E. Jelert
38R. Fofana
25M. Samatta
9J. MajaToulouse Substitutes
18M. Amougou
15A. Dønnum
9S. Hidalgo72'for Casper Tengstedt
60M. Niflore
19D. Odogu
11S. Oppong72'for Ilyas Azizi
31N. Schmidt
7Julián Vignolo
6A. Vossah72'for Rafik Messali
Le Havre Substitutes
16A. Bodart
44I. Bouneb82'for Josh Maja
17K. Mizuta
78D. Mosengo
6J. Mwanga70'for Vincent Sasso
30S. Nakamura69'for Djibril Ouziad81'
14R. Ndiaye82'for Amir Richardson
27E. Koffi Vinette69'for Rayan Fofana
97M. Ndiaye
Match Stats
ToulouseLe Havre 53%Ball Possession47%
6Corner Kicks7
3Yellow Cards1
14Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal7
4Shots off Goal6
10Shots Inside Box12
4Shots Outside Box6
5Blocked Shots5
17Fouls15
3Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves2
477Total Passes406
409Passes Accurate354
15Free Kicks17
Team Comparison
ToulouseLe Havre1757Elo Rating 1581
1.86Attack 1.43
2.00Defense 0.00
39%Hit Rate 0%
10.6Shots per Game 17.1
4.1Shots on Target 5.4
3.7Corners per Game 5.2
2.7Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+175 Elo
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Toulouse- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Le Havre- Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Toulouse5Wins · 50%Draws220%
Le Havre3Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
15/02/2026Le HavreToulouse21
02/11/2025ToulouseLe Havre00
23/02/2025Le HavreToulouse14
15/09/2024ToulouseLe Havre20
10/03/2024Le HavreToulouse10
05/11/2023ToulouseLe Havre12
21/02/2022ToulouseLe Havre40
13/09/2021Le HavreToulouse11
04/05/2021Le HavreToulouse01
19/12/2020ToulouseLe Havre43
Recent Form
Toulouse3W4D3L
12/09/2026
LorientToulouseToulouse
Lille
Stade Brestois 29ToulouseToulouse
Lyon
LorientToulouse22
D03/09/2026ToulouseLille01
L29/08/2026Stade Brestois 29Toulouse22
D22/08/2026ToulouseLyon02
L15/08/2026Toulouse
Hamburger SV
ToulouseHamburger SV12
L31/07/2026Toulouse
Real Sociedad
ToulouseReal Sociedad21
W25/07/2026Toulouse
Rodez
ToulouseRodez11
D10/05/2026ToulouseLyon
ToulouseLyon21
W03/05/2026
StrasbourgToulouse
StrasbourgToulouse12
W25/04/2026Toulouse
Monaco
ToulouseMonaco22
DLe Havre3W3D4L
12/09/2026Le Havre
AngersLe HavreStade Brestois 29LyonLe HavreLe HavreMonaco
Le HavreAngers00
D05/09/2026Le HavreStade Brestois 2912
L29/08/2026LyonLe Havre11
D23/08/2026Le HavreMonaco01
L15/08/2026
Le MansLe Havre
Le MansLe Havre01
W04/08/2026
IpswichLe Havre
IpswichLe Havre10
L31/07/2026Le Havre
Laval
Le HavreLaval11
D25/07/2026Le Havre
RED Star FC 93
Le HavreRED Star FC 9321
W17/07/2026Le Havre
Amiens
Le HavreAmiens12
L17/05/2026LorientLe Havre
LorientLe Havre02
WReferee Profile
3.86Cards per match
3.74Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.88 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.92).
Cards come from 121 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | +11 | 20 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | +6 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 3 |  Rennes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20:19 | +1 | 16 | LWLWL |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | +4 | 15 | DLDWD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | LWLWD |
| 6 |  Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | +4 | 14 | LWLWD |
| 7 |  Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | +1 | 14 | WWLWW |
| 8 |  Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16:13 | +3 | 13 | LWWWL |
| 9 |  Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 | WWWLL |
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DWWLD |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 10 | DWLWW |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | -5 | 7 | DLLWD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 5 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9:20 | -11 | 2 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Rennes | 9 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | 11:7 | 15 |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 13:7 | 14 |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 13:9 | 14 |
| 7 | Nice | 9 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 8 | Lens | 9 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 9 | Marseille | 8 | 18:13 | 12 |
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 12:18 | 10 |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 14:12 | 9 |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 9:15 | 8 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 11:16 | 7 |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | 12:18 | 7 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 8 | 5:16 | 5 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 9:20 | 2 |
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About the Toulouse vs Le Havre forecast
The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Toulouse and Le Havre in the Ligue 1 table
In the Ligue 1 table, Toulouse are 11th and Le Havre 18th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Toulouse 12-11, Le Havre 9-20. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.