Lyon vs Rennes Prediction

Lyon
4-0
Finished
HT 2-0
Rennes
Groupama Stadium, Lyon·Mathieu Vernice 19/09/2026
LyonLyon
4-0
Finished
RennesRennes

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 1.5
2.20
SignalNEUTRALModel56%SurpriseMediumGap+11.7%
Lyon Rest
2 days
Rennes Rest
2 days

Lyon vs Rennes: the result in context

Lyon beat Rennes 4-0 in the Ligue 1 on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Rennes have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 4.4 goals a game. Referee Mathieu Vernice averages 4.49 cards a game, 0.62 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%2.12
X
27%3.75
2
28%3.19
Double Chance
1X
72%1.35
X2
55%1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%1.46
No
32%2.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.77 + 1.29 = 3.06
Over 1.5
83%1.14
Over 2.5
62%1.53
Over 3.5
38%2.37
Under 1.5
17%4.92
Under 2.5
38%2.45
Under 3.5
62%1.62
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.7 = 10
Over 8.5
66%1.28
Over 9.5
54%1.52
Over 10.5
40%1.91
Under 8.5
34%3.05
Under 9.5
46%2.26
Under 10.5
60%1.83
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2 = 3.5
Over 3.5
46%1.64
Over 4.5
27%2.15
Under 3.5
54%2.21
Under 4.5
73%1.65

Match Events

2'Moussa NiakhatéFoul
7'Ernest NuamahAssist: Corentin Tolisso
16'Quentin MerlinFoul
30'Ernest NuamahAssist: Pavel Šulc
48'Zachary Athekame
60'Pavel ŠulcFoul
61'Boulaye Dia INEsteban Lepaul out
61'Arnaud Nordin INMousa Al-Tamari out
62'Eliezer Mayenda INLudovic Blas out
64'Pavel Šulc INKhalis Merah out
73'Ernest Nuamah INKail Boudache out
73'Quentin Merlin INMahamadou Nagida out
73'Przemysław Frankowski INBryan Reynolds out
76'Corentin TolissoAssist: Zachary Athekame
79'Mads Bidstrup INTanner Tessmann out
79'Tyler Morton INNoah Teye Nartey out
79'Loïs Openda INKeito Nakamura out
81'Valentin RongierFoul
86'Zachary AthekameFoul
90+2'Noah Teye Nartey

Lineups

Lyon
4-2-3-1Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Rennes
4-1-4-1Coach: F. Haise
Avg rating7.05
Avg rating6.13
D. Greif8.31D. Greif
Z. Athekame7.213Z. Athekame
F. Bacher6.720F. Bacher
M. Niakhaté6.719M. Niakhaté
Abner6.416Abner
M. Bidstrup6.32M. Bidstrup
T. Morton6.523T. Morton
E. Nuamah9.57E. Nuamah
P. Šulc7.510P. Šulc
C. Tolisso9.08C. Tolisso
L. Openda6.617L. Openda
B. Samba6.730B. Samba
P. Frankowski5.895P. Frankowski
C. Cresswell6.24C. Cresswell
A. Ait Boudlal6.448A. Ait Boudlal
Q. Merlin5.326Q. Merlin
V. Rongier6.021V. Rongier
A. Nordin5.870A. Nordin
A. Thomasson6.828A. Thomasson
M. Camara6.545M. Camara
Eliezer Mayenda5.712E. Mayenda
B. Dia6.322B. Dia

Lyon Substitutes

6T. Tessmann79'for Mads Bidstrup6.4
26K. Boudache73'for Ernest Nuamah6.5
40R. Descamps
21R. Kluivert
22Clinton Mata
18K. Merah64'for Pavel Šulc6.8
11Keito Nakamura79'for Loïs Openda6.3
99N. Nartey79'for Tyler Morton90+2'6.1
76M. Ouédraogo

Rennes Substitutes

10L. Blas62'for Eliezer Mayenda6.6
65H. Do Marcolino
16N. Lemaître
9E. Lepaul61'for Boulaye Dia6.5
18M. Nagida73'for Quentin Merlin5.9
14B. Reynolds73'for Przemysław Frankowski5.5
24A. Rouault
17S. Szymański
11Mousa Tamari61'for Arnaud Nordin6.3

Match Stats

LyonRennes
45%Ball Possession55%
3Corner Kicks8
4Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots13
9Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal8
10Shots Inside Box9
5Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots1
13Fouls14
2Offsides0
4Goalkeeper Saves5
410Total Passes487
346Passes Accurate411
13Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

LyonLyon
RennesRennes
1824Elo Rating 1813
1.03Attack 2.39
0.97Defense 0.46
36%Hit Rate 37%
9.2Shots per Game 16.9
4.0Shots on Target 7.0
4.7Corners per Game 5.8
1.0Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.06 goals
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

LyonLyon
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
RennesRennes
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

LyonLyon4Wins · 40%
Draws00%
RennesRennes6Wins · 60%
4.4Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
90%3+ goals9 of 10

Previous meetings

Ligue 103/05/2026
LyonRennes
42
Ligue 114/09/2025
RennesLyon
31
Ligue 126/04/2025
LyonRennes
41
Ligue 118/08/2024
RennesLyon
30
Ligue 126/01/2024
LyonRennes
23
Ligue 112/11/2023
RennesLyon
01
Ligue 109/04/2023
LyonRennes
31
Ligue 116/10/2022
RennesLyon
32
Ligue 113/03/2022
LyonRennes
24
Ligue 107/11/2021
RennesLyon
41

Referee Profile

Mathieu Vernice139 matches

4.49Cards per match
4.20Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
28.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mathieu Vernice4.49
Other referees3.87

4.49 cards a match, 0.62 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.87).

Cards come from 126 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain962121:10+1120WWWWW
2LilleLille953112:6+618WDDWL
3RennesRennes951320:19+116LWLWL
4MonacoMonaco843111:7+415DLDWD
5LyonLyon842213:7+614LWLWD
6Paris FCParis FC842213:9+414LWLWD
7NiceNice942313:12+114WWLWW
8LensLens941416:13+313LWWWL
9MarseilleMarseille840418:13+512WWWLL
10LorientLorient83327:6+112DWWLD
11ToulouseToulouse824212:11+110DWDWD
12StrasbourgStrasbourg931517:19-210WLLLL
13AuxerreAuxerre931513:23-1010LDWLW
14Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29823314:12+29LDWLL
15AngersAngers82249:15-68DLLWD
16Estac TroyesEstac Troyes92257:16-98WDLLL
17Le MansLe Mans914411:18-77LDLLW
18Le HavreLe Havre90279:20-112LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain921:1020
2LilleLille912:618
3RennesRennes920:1916
4MonacoMonaco811:715
5LyonLyon813:714
6Paris FCParis FC813:914
7NiceNice913:1214
8LensLens916:1313
9MarseilleMarseille818:1312
10LorientLorient87:612
11ToulouseToulouse812:1110
12StrasbourgStrasbourg917:1910
13AuxerreAuxerre913:2310
14Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29814:129
15AngersAngers89:158
16Estac TroyesEstac Troyes97:168
17Le MansLe Mans911:187
18Le HavreLe Havre99:202
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Lyon vs Rennes forecast

The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lyon and Rennes in the Ligue 1 table

Rennes and Lyon are close in the Ligue 1 table, 3rd and 5th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Lyon 13-7, Rennes 20-19. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.