Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Ararat-Armenia
0-4
Finished
HT 0-2
AZ Alkmaar
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan·Patrik Kolaric 22/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.39
SignalHIGHModel74%SurpriseMediumGap+4.6%
Ararat-Armenia Rest
4 days
AZ Alkmaar Rest
4 days

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: result, form and history

AZ Alkmaar beat Ararat-Armenia 4-0 in the UEFA Europa League on 22 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
11%7.55
X
15%5.03
2
74%1.39
Double Chance
1X
26%3.00
X2
89%1.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.70
No
46%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.07 + 2.08 = 3.15
Over 1.5
83%1.14
Over 2.5
63%1.50
Over 3.5
43%2.25
Under 1.5
17%5.40
Under 2.5
37%2.57
Under 3.5
57%1.65
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

21'Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
23'Bruno WilsonFoul
27'Weslley Pinto BatistaAssist: Seiya Maikuma
44'Armen AmbartsumyanFoul
45'Ayoub Oufkir INRo Zangelo Daal out
57'Armen Ambartsumyan INKaren Muradyan out
65'Bendegúz Kovács INMexx Meerdink out
65'Seiya Maikuma INDenso Kasius out
73'Juan Andres Balanta INBernardo Oliveira out
73'Sandro Lima INArayik Eloyan out
73'Edgar·Grigoryan INBruno Pereira out
73'Zhirayr Shaghoyan INCarlos Henrique França Freires out
76'Weslley Pinto BatistaAssist: Ro Zangelo Daal
79'Mexx MeerdinkAssist: Weslley Pinto Batista
80'Wesley Hoedt INRion Ichihara out
80'Valdemar Byskov Andreasen INHessel de Wit out

Lineups

Ararat-Armenia
4-2-3-1Coach: Tulipa
AZ Alkmaar
4-3-3Coach: L. Echteld
Avg rating5.93
Avg rating7.40
João Bravim6.598J. Bravim
Hugo Oliveira5.62H. Oliveira
Bruno Wilson5.443B. Wilson
A. Malis6.547A. Malis
E. Grigoryan4.916E. Grigoryan
J. Balanta6.98J. Balanta
M. Carlier6.617M. Carlier
A. Serobyan5.277A. Serobyan
A. Ambartsumyan5.610A. Ambartsumyan
Z. Shaghoyan6.27Z. Shaghoyan
Sandro Lima6.191S. Lima
J. De Busser7.628J. De Busser
S. Maikuma7.32S. Maikuma
L. Schouten7.44L. Schouten
W. Hoedt7.729W. Hoedt
M. de Wit7.934M. de Wit
P. Koopmeiners6.96P. Koopmeiners
V. Byskov8.217V. Byskov
D. Kwakman7.121D. Kwakman
Weslley Patati9.37W. Patati
B. Kovacs6.318B. Kovacs
A. Oufkir6.724A. Oufkir

Ararat-Armenia Substitutes

25A. Ndour
9A. Eloyan73'for Sandro Lima5.5
5Luís Felipe
14Bruno Pereira73'for Edgar·Grigoryan5.8
19K. Muradyan57'for Armen Ambartsumyan5.8
1A. Nersesyan
70B. Oliveira73'for Juan Andres Balanta5.9
95França73'for Zhirayr Shaghoyan6.4

AZ Alkmaar Substitutes

75H. de Wit80'for Valdemar Byskov Andreasen6.8
14C. Stengs
12H. Verhulst
1R. Owusu-Oduro
9M. Meerdink65'for Bendegúz Kovács79'7.3
30D. Kasius65'for Seiya Maikuma7.1
31R. Ichihara80'for Wesley Hoedt7.0
22E. Dijkstra
11R. Daal45'for Ayoub Oufkir7.7
5M. Chávez
27Wassim bouziane
54Jerolldino Bergraaf

Match Stats

Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar
39%Ball Possession61%
5Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards0
9Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal9
3Shots off Goal7
5Shots Inside Box8
4Shots Outside Box9
2Blocked Shots1
9Fouls15
2Offsides0
5Goalkeeper Saves4
365Total Passes572
276Passes Accurate491
14Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
1614Elo Rating 1854
1.01Attack 2.07
1.03Defense 2.02
37%Hit Rate 61%
11.5Shots per Game 13.5
4.0Shots on Target 6.2
4.2Corners per Game 5.7
2.0Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.15 goals
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0 in second half)
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.9 in first half)

Referee Profile

Patrik Kolaric143 matches

4.40Cards per match
4.28Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
25.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Patrik Kolaric4.40
Other referees4.45

4.40 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.45).

Cards come from 94 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Europa League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BenficaBenfica330010:2+89WWW
2Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen33008:0+89WWW
3BournemouthBournemouth33008:1+79WWW
4Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC33009:3+69WWW
5Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus33004:1+39WWW
6Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise32108:1+77WDW
7JuventusJuventus32109:3+67DWW
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş32109:5+47DWW
9SunderlandSunderland32104:2+27DWW
10AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar32016:2+46WWL
11Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia32015:4+16LWW
12LyonLyon32015:6-16LWW
13RennesRennes31204:3+15DWD
14Real SociedadReal Sociedad31118:3+54WDL
15Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace31118:5+34DLW
16Sparta PrahaSparta Praha31115:3+24LDW
17Levski SofiaLevski Sofia31113:304WDL
18Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb31113:4-14LWD
19Sturm GrazSturm Graz31111:3-24WLD
20NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen31115:8-34WDL
21Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg31113:6-34DLW
22AnderlechtAnderlecht31024:3+13WLL
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim31025:503WLL
24AC MilanAC Milan31024:5-13LWL
25Celta VigoCelta Vigo31023:4-13WLL
26OFIOFI31023:4-13LLW
27JagielloniaJagiellonia31024:6-23LWL
28TorreenseTorreense31024:7-33LLW
29CeljeCelje30122:7-51DLL
30Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva30121:6-51LLD
31LillestromLillestrom30122:9-71LDL
32Lech PoznanLech Poznan30121:9-81DLL
33PlzenPlzen30032:7-50LLL
34MarseilleMarseille30031:6-50LLL
35CelticCeltic30033:9-60LLL
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia30032:11-90LLL
Europa League

About the Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar forecast

This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League table

In the UEFA Europa League table, AZ Alkmaar are 10th and Ararat-Armenia 36th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Ararat-Armenia 2-11, AZ Alkmaar 6-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.