Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 12
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.19
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseHighGap-9.9%
Atletico Nacional Rest
3 days
Millonarios Rest
5 days
Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios: the result in context
Atletico Nacional and Millonarios drew 1-1 in the Primera A on 25 Sep 2026. Atletico Nacional had gone in with the better form, having won 4 of their previous five against 2 for Millonarios.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.9 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
151%1.70
X26%3.75
223%4.54
Double Chance
1X78%1.19
X249%2.04
Both Teams to Score
Yes55%1.66
No45%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.67 + 0.79 = 2.46
Over 1.575%1.20
Over 2.553%1.70
Over 3.531%2.65
Under 1.525%4.10
Under 2.547%2.09
Under 3.569%1.43
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 3.6 = 9.4
Over 8.561%1.51
Over 9.547%1.88
Over 10.537%2.41
Under 8.539%2.31
Under 9.553%1.80
Under 10.563%1.46
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.7 = 4.8
Over 3.570%-
Over 4.552%-
Under 3.530%-
Under 4.548%-
Match Events
15'Chicho Arango INAndrés Sarmiento out
26'Andrés Felipe Marín BernalFoul
39'Julian Angulo
45'Julian Angulo INLeonardo Castro out
45+3'Andrés ReyesAssist: Elías Lautaro Cabrera
55'Juan ZapataFoul
59'Stiven VegaFoul
60'Juan Zapata INJames Rodríguez out
67'Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera INDavid Silva out
67'Marlos Moreno INKevin Parra out
70'Leonardo CastroFoul
82'Elías Lautaro CabreraFoul
85'Card upgrade confirmedAndrés Sarmiento
85'Andrés SarmientoViolent conduct
88'Rodrigo Ureña INSebastián Viveros del Castillo out
Lineups
Atletico NacionalMillonarios
5-3-2Coach: A. GameroAvg ratingAvg rating
34F. Armani
6A. Román
3N. Parra
15A. Reyes
16W. Tesillo
22E. Cabrera
26F. Marin
99I. Poveda
80J. Zapata
7M. Moreno
17C. Arango
1J. Burrai
2C. Sarabia
4S. Barreiro
6S. Mosquera
20D. Banguero
13F. Chaverra
24J. Angulo
28S. Vega
18R. Ureña
10D. Ruiz
11A. EstupiñánAtletico Nacional Substitutes
4C. Haydar
20M. Casco
25L. Marquinez
30K. Parra67'for Marlos Moreno
27Y. Perlaza
31X. Rios
23J. Rodríguez60'for Juan Zapata
29A. Sarmiento15'for Chicho Arango85'
24J. Rosa
Millonarios Substitutes
26A. Llinás
3M. Diaz Samuel
35Sebastián Mosquera
14D. Silva67'for Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera
22Sebastián Valencia Isaza
30S. del Castillo88'for Rodrigo Ureña
23L. Castro45'for Julian Angulo70'
17J. Arias
12J. Aguirre
19M. García
Match Stats
Atletico NacionalMillonarios 59%Ball Possession41%
3Corner Kicks2
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
13Total Shots4
3Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal1
5Shots Inside Box4
8Shots Outside Box0
1Blocked Shots0
16Fouls17
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves2
390Total Passes270
323Passes Accurate190
17Free Kicks16
Team Comparison
Atletico NacionalMillonarios1759Elo Rating 1647
2.15Attack 1.83
2.46Defense 1.86
83%Hit Rate 23%
11.8Shots per Game 14.8
4.9Shots on Target 5.3
3.7Corners per Game 4.3
2.2Cards per Game 4.2
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+111 Elo
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📊Home Overperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk90%
Game State Tendencies
Atletico Nacional- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Millonarios- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Atletico Nacional2Wins · 20%Draws330%
Millonarios5Wins · 50%
5Wins · 50%1.9Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
18/03/2026MillonariosAtletico Nacional30
05/03/2026Atletico NacionalMillonarios13
28/09/2025Atletico NacionalMillonarios20
17/06/2025Atletico NacionalMillonarios01
06/06/2025MillonariosAtletico Nacional00
14/04/2025MillonariosAtletico Nacional00
03/12/2024Atletico NacionalMillonarios11
30/11/2024MillonariosAtletico Nacional21
25/07/2024MillonariosAtletico Nacional12
12/02/2024Atletico NacionalMillonarios01
Recent Form
Atletico Nacional8W0D2L
21/09/2026
LlanerosAtletico Nacional
Internacional de BogotaAtletico NacionalAtletico Nacional
Águilas DoradasAtletico Nacional
Deportivo Cali
Alianza ValleduparAtletico Nacional
Fortaleza FCAtletico Nacional
America de CaliAtletico Nacional
JaguaresAtletico Nacional
LlanerosAtletico Nacional20
L17/09/2026Internacional de BogotaAtletico Nacional23
W13/09/2026Atletico NacionalÁguilas Doradas20
W08/09/2026Atletico NacionalDeportivo Cali30
W30/08/2026Alianza ValleduparAtletico Nacional15
W27/08/2026Atletico NacionalDeportivo Cali
23/08/2026Atletico NacionalDeportivo Cali21
WFortaleza FCAtletico Nacional12
W10/08/2026America de CaliAtletico Nacional10
L02/08/2026JaguaresAtletico Nacional03
W29/07/2026
Tigres FCAtletico Nacional
Tigres FCAtletico Nacional02
WMillonarios5W4D1L
19/09/2026Millonarios
Chico
CucutaMillonariosMillonariosDeportivo Cali
Deportivo PereiraMillonarios
Santa FeMillonariosMillonariosInternacional de BogotaLlanerosMillonariosÁguilas DoradasMillonariosMillonarios
Deportivo Pasto
JuniorMillonarios
MillonariosChico30
W14/09/2026CucutaMillonarios12
W11/09/2026MillonariosDeportivo Cali11
D07/09/2026Deportivo PereiraMillonarios11
D03/09/2026Santa FeMillonarios32
L31/08/2026MillonariosInternacional de Bogota00
D28/08/2026LlanerosMillonarios02
W22/08/2026Águilas DoradasMillonarios11
D05/08/2026MillonariosDeportivo Pasto20
W02/08/2026JuniorMillonarios01
WReferee Profile
5.87Cards per match
5.56Yellow cards per match
0.31Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.87 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.85).
Cards come from 101 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | WDLWW |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | WLWLD |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | WDDDL |
| 6 |  Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | LWDLL |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | LDWWL |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 |  Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | WLDWL |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | LWLWD |
| 13 |  Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | LDWDD |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | WDDLL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | LWDLW |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LWLWL |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | WDWDD |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 32:13 | +19 | 35 | WWDWW |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 31:12 | +19 | 34 | WLWLD |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 26:10 | +16 | 33 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25:16 | +9 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23:17 | +6 | 28 | DDLWW |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 24 | WDDDL |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 23 | WLDWL |
| 9 | Águilas Doradas | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 21:20 | +1 | 22 | LWLWD |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 21 | WDWDD |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21:23 | -2 | 20 | LWDLL |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19:23 | -4 | 20 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16:27 | -11 | 18 | LWDLW |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12:19 | -7 | 17 | DLLLD |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 16 | WWLWW |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13:28 | -15 | 16 | LWLWL |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 13 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 16 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 17:24 | -7 | 12 | WDDLL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11:24 | -13 | 12 | WDLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 32:13 | 35 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 31:12 | 34 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 26:10 | 33 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 25:16 | 28 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 23:17 | 28 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 17 | 21:18 | 24 |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin | 16 | 23:24 | 23 |
| 9 | Águilas Doradas | 16 | 21:20 | 22 |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 18:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 21:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 19:23 | 20 |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 16 | 16:27 | 18 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 12:19 | 17 |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 23:27 | 16 |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 13:28 | 16 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 17:29 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 16 | 17:24 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 11:24 | 12 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera A matches
- Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional 21/09/26
- Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares 23/09/26
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali 23/09/26
- America de Cali vs Águilas Doradas 24/09/26
- Chico vs Deportivo Pasto 26/09/26
- Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga 26/09/26
- Deportivo Pereira vs Internacional de Bogota 26/09/26
- Cucuta vs Llaneros 27/09/26
About the Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios forecast
As a derby, this Primera A meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Atletico Nacional and Millonarios in the Primera A table
In the Primera A table, Atletico Nacional are 1st and Millonarios 10th, 14 points apart. League goal record so far: Atletico Nacional 35-15, Millonarios 31-23. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Atletico Nacional have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.