Bayern München vs RB Leipzig Prediction

Bayern München
6-1
Finished
HT 3-0
RB Leipzig
Allianz Arena, Munich·Tobias Stieler 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.21
SignalSTRONGModel78%SurpriseMediumGap-1.9%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.50
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Bayern München Rest
3 days
RB Leipzig Rest
3 days

Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: result, form and history

Bayern München beat RB Leipzig 6-1 in the Bundesliga on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Bayern München have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 4.4 goals a game. Bayern München tend to win more corners, 7.5 a game to 4.3 for RB Leipzig.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
80%1.21
X
14%7.75
2
6%10.50
Double Chance
1X
94%1.05
X2
20%4.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%1.36
No
33%2.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.53 + 1 = 3.53
Over 1.5
92%1.03
Over 2.5
80%1.11
Over 3.5
65%1.32
Under 1.5
8%14.00
Under 2.5
20%6.00
Under 3.5
35%3.12
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.1 + 2.5 = 9.6
Over 8.5
60%1.21
Over 9.5
49%1.46
Over 10.5
38%1.76
Under 8.5
40%3.30
Under 9.5
51%2.52
Under 10.5
62%2.00
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2 = 3.5
Over 3.5
47%2.00
Over 4.5
28%2.55
Under 3.5
53%1.73
Under 4.5
72%1.50

Match Events

12'Luis DíazAssist: Joshua Kimmich
26'Aleksandar PavlovićAssist: Luis Díaz
34'Michael OliseAssist: Harry Kane
45'Ezechiel Banzuzi INNicolas Seiwald out
45'Christopher Nkunku INTidiam Gomis out
47'Luis DíazAssist: Harry Kane
51'Konrad LaimerFoul
52'Harry KaneAssist: Nathaniel Brown
59'Aleksandar Pavlović INTom Bischof out
59'Konrad Laimer INJosip Stanišić out
59'Harry Kane INLennart Karl out
59'Ismael Saibari INSerge Gnabry out
59'Lukas Klostermann INBenjamin Henrichs out
60'Antonio Nusa INRômulo José Cardoso da Cruz out
69'Luis DíazAssist: Michael Olise
71'Rocco Reitz INAndrija Maksimović out
77'Kim Min-Jae INSacha Boey out
90+1'Andrija MaksimovićAssist: Brajan Gruda

Lineups

Bayern München
4-2-3-1Coach: V. Kompany
RB Leipzig
4-5-1Coach: M. Demichelis
Avg rating7.41
Avg rating6.26
J. Urbig6.940J. Urbig
K. Laimer6.527K. Laimer
D. Upamecano6.72D. Upamecano
Kim Min-Jae6.83K. Min-Jae
N. Brown7.211N. Brown
J. Kimmich7.76J. Kimmich
A. Pavlović8.245A. Pavlović
M. Olise8.917M. Olise
I. Saibari6.434I. Saibari
L. Díaz9.414L. Díaz
H. Kane9.99H. Kane
M. Vandevoordt7.626M. Vandevoordt
L. Klostermann5.516L. Klostermann
W. Orbán6.04W. Orbán
C. Lukeba5.623C. Lukeba
D. Raum6.222D. Raum
B. Gruda7.210B. Gruda
R. Reitz5.820R. Reitz
N. El Aynaoui6.521N. El Aynaoui
E. Banzuzi6.16E. Banzuzi
A. Nusa6.07A. Nusa
C. Nkunku6.228C. Nkunku

Bayern München Substitutes

23S. Boey77'for Kim Min-Jae6.3
44J. Stanišić59'for Konrad Laimer7.0
19A. Davies
42L. Karl59'for Harry Kane7.2
4J. Tah
26S. Ulreich
21H. Ito
7S. Gnabry59'for Ismael Saibari6.5
8T. Bischof59'for Aleksandar Pavlović7.0

RB Leipzig Substitutes

3M. Estève
35Max Finkgräfe
39B. Henrichs59'for Lukas Klostermann5.9
30A. Maksimović71'for Rocco Reitz90+1'6.9
1Ø. Nyland
40Rômulo60'for Antonio Nusa6.4
13N. Seiwald45'for Ezechiel Banzuzi5.9
17R. Baku
27T. Gomis45'for Christopher Nkunku6.3

Match Stats

Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
62%Ball Possession38%
11Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards0
29Total Shots12
17Shots on Goal4
3Shots off Goal3
17Shots Inside Box7
12Shots Outside Box5
9Blocked Shots5
15Fouls6
4Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves11
666Total Passes414
601Passes Accurate337
6Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

Bayern MünchenBayern München
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
2105Elo Rating 1849
4.11Attack 1.96
1.52Defense 0.96
66%Hit Rate 64%
19.9Shots per Game 12.8
9.1Shots on Target 4.7
7.5Corners per Game 4.3
1.6Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+257 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.53 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Bayern MünchenBayern München
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.4 vs 1.7 in first half)
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 0 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Bayern MünchenBayern München6Wins · 60%
Draws220%
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig2Wins · 20%
4.4Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
90%3+ goals9 of 10

Previous meetings

Friendlies Clubs15/08/2026
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
31
DFB Pokal11/02/2026
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
20
Bundesliga17/01/2026
RB LeipzigBayern München
15
Bundesliga22/08/2025
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
60
Bundesliga03/05/2025
RB LeipzigBayern München
33
Bundesliga20/12/2024
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
51
Bundesliga24/02/2024
Bayern MunichRB Leipzig
21
Bundesliga30/09/2023
RB LeipzigBayern Munich
22
Super Cup12/08/2023
Bayern MunichRB Leipzig
03
Bundesliga20/05/2023
Bayern MunichRB Leipzig
13

Recent Form

Bayern MünchenBayern München
7W3D0L
13/10/2026
VikingBayern München
33
D
10/10/2026
FC AugsburgBayern München
22
D
18/09/2026
Bayern MünchenUnion Berlin
70
W
13/09/2026
SV ElversbergBayern München
12
W
10/09/2026
Bayern MünchenBodo/Glimt
50
W
05/09/2026
FC Schalke 04Bayern München
00
D
02/09/2026
VfL OsnabrückBayern München
14
W
28/08/2026
Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
51
W
22/08/2026
Borussia DortmundBayern München
12
W
18/08/2026
1. FC HeidenheimBayern München
24
W

Referee Profile

Tobias Stieler224 matches

3.88Cards per match
3.73Yellow cards per match
0.15Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tobias Stieler3.85
Other referees4.30

3.85 cards a match, 0.45 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.30).

Cards come from 213 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München853027:8+1918DWWDW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund853014:6+818DWDDW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg851218:10+816WLLWD
4RB LeipzigRB Leipzig850322:11+1115WWLWL
5Werder BremenWerder Bremen843117:14+315WWDDW
6Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen841318:16+213LLWWW
7SV ElversbergSV Elversberg841316:16013WLWLD
8FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05831417:17010LLWLW
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg823318:15+39LDLDL
10VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart830514:15-19WLLWL
111899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim830514:16-29LWWLL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln82339:12-39DDLWL
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0782336:9-39DWDLW
14Hamburger SVHamburger SV73046:16-109LWWWL
15Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt722310:17-78LWLDW
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin81437:19-127DDDWL
17FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0481344:9-56LDLLD
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach811611:22-114DWLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Bayern München vs RB Leipzig forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Bayern München and RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Bayern München are 1st in the Bundesliga, 3 points ahead of RB Leipzig in 4th. League goal record so far: Bayern München 27-8, RB Leipzig 22-11. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Bayern München have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.