FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction
Germany · Regular Season - 6
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-3.2%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.49
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+6.3%
FC Schalke 04 Rest
5 days
FSV Mainz 05 Rest
7 days
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: the result in context
FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Schalke 04 1-0 in the Bundesliga on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 4 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
130%3.00
X27%3.60
243%2.30
Double Chance
1X57%1.62
X270%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes59%1.52
No41%2.38
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.19 + 1.61 = 2.80
Over 1.579%1.20
Over 2.556%1.67
Over 3.536%2.55
Under 1.521%4.47
Under 2.544%2.22
Under 3.564%1.49
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.9 = 9.9
Over 8.562%1.53
Over 9.551%1.91
Over 10.540%2.44
Under 8.538%2.33
Under 9.549%1.84
Under 10.560%1.47
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.4 = 4.3
Over 3.562%1.51
Over 4.543%1.99
Under 3.538%2.46
Under 4.557%1.77
Match Events
24'Phillip TietzAssist: Anthony Caci
42'Nadiem AmiriFoul
45'Kaishu SanoFoul
60'Edin Džeko INHwang Hee-Chan out
60'Adrian Tobias Gantenbein INJunior Dina Ebimbe out
71'Nikola Katić INMaximilian Wöber out
71'Adil Aouchiche INJunior Chukwubuike Adamu out
76'Lee Jae-Sung INPaul Nebel out
76'Sheraldo Becker INRansford Konigsdorffer out
79'Robin Gosens INVitalie Becker out
86'Nadiem Amiri INEric Martel out
90+1'Phillip Tietz INLennard Maloney out
90+1'Anthony Caci INSilvan Widmer out
Lineups
FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Coach: U. FischerAvg ratingAvg rating
1L. Karius
5T. Becker
25N. Katić
4H. Kuruçay
17A. Gantenbein
23S. El-Faouzi
13S. Tanaka
8R. Gosens
19K. Karaman
24A. Aouchiche
10E. Džeko
1A. Schwolow
21D. da Costa
4S. Posch
48K. Potulski
19A. Caci
10N. Amiri
6K. Sano
7L. Jae-Sung
2P. Mwene
23S. Becker
9P. TietzFC Schalke 04 Substitutes
20J. Adamu71'for Adil Aouchiche
43M. Ayhan
33Vitalie Becker79'for Robin Gosens
29J. Dina Ebimbe60'for Adrian Tobias Gantenbein
7Hwang Hee-Chan60'for Edin Džeko
22K. Müller
6R. Schallenberg
38L. Vozar
39M. Wöber71'for Nikola Katić
FSV Mainz 05 Substitutes
3F. Gruber
17B. Hollerbach
40M. Kinzig
11R. Königsdörffer76'for Sheraldo Becker
15L. Maloney90+1'for Phillip Tietz
5E. Martel86'for Nadiem Amiri
47R. Nakuzola
8P. Nebel76'for Lee Jae-Sung
30S. Widmer90+1'for Anthony Caci
Match Stats
FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05 46%Ball Possession54%
4Corner Kicks1
0Yellow Cards2
9Total Shots10
3Shots on Goal6
2Shots off Goal2
7Shots Inside Box8
2Shots Outside Box2
4Blocked Shots2
12Fouls20
3Offsides7
5Goalkeeper Saves3
392Total Passes462
259Passes Accurate339
20Free Kicks11
Team Comparison
FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 051691Elo Rating 1770
0.62Attack 2.16
2.24Defense 0.49
14%Hit Rate 39%
10.3Shots per Game 17.0
2.7Shots on Target 6.5
4.0Corners per Game 3.9
1.3Cards per Game 2.7
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
FC Schalke 04- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
FSV Mainz 05- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.9 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings, all competitions
FC Schalke 042Wins · 50%Draws250%
FSV Mainz 050Wins · 0%
0Wins · 0%2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4
Previous meetings
05/05/2023FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 0423
09/11/2022FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 0510
05/03/2021FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 0500
07/11/2020FSV Mainz 05FC Schalke 0422
Recent Form
FC Schalke 044W2D4L
11/10/2026
SC FreiburgFC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
Union BerlinFC Schalke 04
FC AugsburgFC Schalke 04
Hallescher FCFC Schalke 04
SC FreiburgFC Schalke 0421
L03/10/2026
Austria LustenauFC Schalke 04
20/09/2026Austria LustenauFC Schalke 0401
WFC Schalke 04SV Elversberg00
D11/09/2026Union BerlinFC Schalke 0413
W05/09/2026FC Schalke 04
Bayern München
30/08/2026FC Schalke 04Bayern München00
DFC AugsburgFC Schalke 0430
L24/08/2026Hallescher FCFC Schalke 042252
W16/08/2026FC Schalke 04
Real Madrid
FC Schalke 04Real Madrid03
L08/08/2026FC Schalke 04
Atalanta
FC Schalke 04Atalanta03
L01/08/2026
Hessen KasselFC Schalke 04
Hessen KasselFC Schalke 0405
WFSV Mainz 056W2D2L
10/10/2026FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen34
L03/10/2026
Waldhof MannheimFSV Mainz 05
19/09/2026Waldhof MannheimFSV Mainz 0503
WBorussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 0534
W12/09/2026FSV Mainz 05Eintracht Frankfurt13
L06/09/2026Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 0505
W29/08/2026FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 0700
D23/08/2026
KrieschowFSV Mainz 05
KrieschowFSV Mainz 0509
W15/08/2026FSV Mainz 05
Bournemouth
FSV Mainz 05Bournemouth21
W01/08/2026
UdineseFSV Mainz 05
UdineseFSV Mainz 0533
D31/07/2026FSV Mainz 05
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
FSV Mainz 05Shabab Al Ahli Dubai10
WReferee Profile
4.93Cards per match
4.71Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.93 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.70).
Cards come from 68 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | LLWDW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 25:6 | 17 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 12:4 | 17 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 20:11 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 15:14 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 16:13 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 12:15 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 17:13 | 9 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 14:14 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 6:16 | 9 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 10:13 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 4:7 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 6:18 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 11:22 | 3 |
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Bundesliga matches
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt 10/10/26
- 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach 11/10/26
- SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 11/10/26
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln 16/10/26
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund 17/10/26
- Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart 17/10/26
- Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 17/10/26
- SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg 17/10/26
About the FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 forecast
The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga table
In the Bundesliga table, FSV Mainz 05 are 7th and FC Schalke 04 16th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: FC Schalke 04 4-7, FSV Mainz 05 16-13. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.