Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

An der Alten Försterei, Berlin·Daniel Schlager 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
62%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.57
SignalNEUTRALModel61%SurpriseMediumGap-2.2%
Union Berlin Rest
7 days
Borussia Dortmund Rest
2 days

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: the result in context

Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga on 17 Oct 2026. Borussia Dortmund had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against 1 for Union Berlin.

Borussia Dortmund have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.7 goals a game. Referee Daniel Schlager averages 4.73 cards a game, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
17%5.50
X
24%4.45
2
59%1.57
Double Chance
1X
41%2.39
X2
83%1.16
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.55
No
42%2.32
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.09 + 1.62 = 2.71
Over 1.5
81%1.13
Over 2.5
60%1.47
Over 3.5
40%2.23
Under 1.5
19%5.40
Under 2.5
40%2.62
Under 3.5
60%1.67
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.5 + 5.1 = 9.6
Over 8.5
59%1.53
Over 9.5
48%1.90
Over 10.5
37%2.47
Under 8.5
41%2.29
Under 9.5
52%1.83
Under 10.5
63%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.2 = 4.3
Over 3.5
61%1.73
Over 4.5
42%2.58
Under 3.5
39%2.00
Under 4.5
58%1.48

Match Events

1'Ethan NwaneriFoul
7'Waldemar AntonFoul
14'Serhou GuirassyFoul
33'Janik HabererFoul
35'Tom RotheFoul
45'Kastriot Imeri INEmmanuel Latte Lath out
62'Maximilian Beier INKonstantinos Karetsas out
62'Ethan Nwaneri INFábio Silva out
63'Tim SkarkeFoul
70'Tim Skarke INMekhi Gray out
70'Konstantinos Karetsas INMathis Albert out
76'Janik Haberer INChristopher Trimmel out
76'András Schäfer INAljoscha Kemlein out
90+3'Woo-Yeong Jeong INLinus Güther out

Lineups

Union Berlin
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Lustrinelli
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1Coach: N. Kovač
Avg rating6.51
Avg rating6.69
F. Rønnow6.91F. Rønnow
J. Haberer5.919J. Haberer
Z. Van Den Bosch6.84Z. Van Den Bosch
F. Uduokhai6.62F. Uduokhai
T. Rothe6.215T. Rothe
M. Aebischer6.120M. Aebischer
A. Schäfer7.113A. Schäfer
R. Khedira6.38R. Khedira
Jeong Woo-Yeong6.511J. Woo-Yeong
K. Imeri6.430K. Imeri
T. Skarke6.221T. Skarke
G. Kobel6.91G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou7.322K. Joane Gadou
W. Anton7.03W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck6.94N. Schlotterbeck
J. Ryerson7.226J. Ryerson
J. Bellingham6.47J. Bellingham
F. Nmecha6.78F. Nmecha
D. Svensson6.624D. Svensson
E. Nwaneri6.418E. Nwaneri
M. Beier6.114M. Beier
S. Guirassy6.49S. Guirassy

Union Berlin Substitutes

49Linus Guther90+3'for Woo-Yeong Jeong
6A. Kemlein76'for András Schäfer6.5
17D. Köhn
29E. Latte Lath45'for Kastriot Imeri6.6
32M. Gray70'for Tim Skarke6.7
27M. Ljubičić
14L. Querfeld
31M. Raab
28C. Trimmel76'for Janik Haberer7.0

Borussia Dortmund Substitutes

41M. Albert70'replaced by Konstantinos Karetsas6.6
5R. Bensebaïni
17C. Chukwuemeka
19K. Karetsas62'for Maximilian Beier70'for Mathis Albert6.6
33A. Meyer
36Kauã Prates
20M. Sabitzer
21Fábio Silva62'for Ethan Nwaneri6.7
25J. Veerman

Match Stats

Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
38%Ball Possession62%
5Corner Kicks5
3Yellow Cards3
11Total Shots10
0Shots on Goal2
8Shots off Goal6
5Shots Inside Box8
6Shots Outside Box2
3Blocked Shots2
13Fouls13
0Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves0
344Total Passes572
247Passes Accurate500
13Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

Union BerlinUnion Berlin
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
1702Elo Rating 1939
0.61Attack 1.01
1.15Defense 2.32
19%Hit Rate 50%
11.2Shots per Game 16.3
2.9Shots on Target 5.9
3.7Corners per Game 9.5
3.1Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk60%

Game State Tendencies

Union BerlinUnion Berlin
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Union BerlinUnion Berlin2Wins · 20%
Draws00%
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund8Wins · 80%
3.7Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga24/01/2026
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
03
Bundesliga31/08/2025
Borussia DortmundUnion Berlin
30
Bundesliga22/02/2025
Borussia DortmundUnion Berlin
60
Bundesliga05/10/2024
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
21
Bundesliga02/03/2024
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
02
Bundesliga07/10/2023
Borussia DortmundUnion Berlin
42
Bundesliga08/04/2023
Borussia DortmundUnion Berlin
21
Bundesliga16/10/2022
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
20
Bundesliga13/02/2022
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
03
Bundesliga19/09/2021
Borussia DortmundUnion Berlin
42

Referee Profile

Daniel Schlager172 matches

4.71Cards per match
4.49Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
23.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Daniel Schlager4.73
Other referees4.23

4.73 cards a match, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.23).

Cards come from 164 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München752025:6+1917WWDWW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund752012:4+817WDDWW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg741216:9+713LLWDW
4Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen741216:12+413LWWWD
5RB LeipzigRB Leipzig740320:11+912WLWLW
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen733115:14+112WDDWD
7FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05731316:13+310LWLWL
8SV ElversbergSV Elversberg731312:15-310LWLDL
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg723217:13+49DLDLD
101899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim730414:1409WWLLW
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV73046:16-109LWWWL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln72238:11-38DLWLD
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0772236:9-38WDLWL
14Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt722310:17-78LWLDW
15VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart720510:13-36LLWLL
16FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0471334:7-36DLLDW
17Union BerlinUnion Berlin71336:18-126DDWLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach710611:22-113WLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga table

The table shows a wide gap: Borussia Dortmund are 2nd in the Bundesliga, while Union Berlin sit 17th, 11 points behind. League goal record so far: Union Berlin 6-18, Borussia Dortmund 12-4. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.