1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction

RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne·Florian Badstubner 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.29
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-4.9%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Over 1.5
1.49
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+6.2%
1. FC Köln Rest
8 days
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rest
8 days

1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: result, form and history

1. FC Köln beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 in the Bundesliga on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 4.3 goals, and both sides scored in 9 of them. Referee Florian Badstubner averages 3.63 cards a game, 0.58 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%1.98
X
27%3.83
2
28%3.58
Double Chance
1X
72%1.29
X2
55%1.83
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%1.47
No
36%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.62 + 1.35 = 2.97
Over 1.5
82%1.14
Over 2.5
63%1.52
Over 3.5
42%2.33
Under 1.5
18%4.95
Under 2.5
37%2.40
Under 3.5
58%1.61
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 4.8 = 10.7
Over 8.5
95%1.35
Over 9.5
80%1.68
Over 10.5
70%2.06
Under 8.5
5%2.75
Under 9.5
20%2.12
Under 10.5
30%1.69
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.5 = 4.4
Over 3.5
64%1.67
Over 4.5
45%2.31
Under 3.5
36%2.10
Under 4.5
55%1.59

Match Events

13'Marius BülterFoul
24'Jan LeszczynskiFoul
26'Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
39'Joe Scally
45'Ellyes Skhiri INTom Krauß out
64'Isac Lidberg INShuto Machino out
64'Robin Hack INWael Mohya out
67'Said El MalaAssist: Linton Maina
68'Florian Neuhaus INZento Uno out
78'Said El Mala INJan Thielmann out
78'Luka Lochoshvili INJoel Schmied out
80'Daiki Hashioka INFritz Fleck out
80'Jan Leszczynski INFabio Cristian Chiarodia out
81'Zento UnoFoul
85'Mikey Moore INImad Rondić out
90+2'Linton Maina INLuca Waldschmidt out
90+6'Shuto MachinoFoul

Lineups

1. FC Köln
4-1-2-1-2Coach: René Wagner
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3-4-2-1Coach: A. Blessin
Avg rating6.94
Avg rating6.31
M. Schwäbe7.51M. Schwäbe
S. Sebulonsen6.628S. Sebulonsen
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey7.322J. Simpson-Pusey
L. Lochoshvili6.824L. Lochoshvili
B. Sosa7.23B. Sosa
E. Skhiri7.06E. Skhiri
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson7.88Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
L. Maina7.137L. Maina
M. Moore6.647M. Moore
M. Bülter6.230M. Bülter
S. El Mala8.210S. El Mala
M. Nicolas6.81M. Nicolas
D. Hashioka5.614D. Hashioka
K. Diks6.74K. Diks
J. Leszczyński6.15J. Leszczyński
J. Scally7.529J. Scally
P. Sander6.516P. Sander
F. Neuhaus6.610F. Neuhaus
L. Ullrich6.026L. Ullrich
H. Bolin5.938H. Bolin
R. Hack5.825R. Hack
I. Lidberg6.23I. Lidberg

1. FC Köln Substitutes

14G. Mensah
5T. Krauß45'for Ellyes Skhiri6.7
23Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler
15I. Rondić85'for Mikey Moore6.5
2J. Schmied78'for Luka Lochoshvili6.4
29J. Thielmann78'for Said El Mala6.3
7L. Waldschmidt90+2'for Linton Maina
20R. Zieler
11Reigan Heskey

Borussia Mönchengladbach Substitutes

34M. Nguefack
36W. Mohya64'for Robin Hack6.3
18S. Machino64'for Isac Lidberg90+6'6.4
22Y. Konoplya
20D. Herold
27F. Fleck80'for Daiki Hashioka6.0
2F. Chiarodia80'for Jan Leszczynski6.3
33D. Batz
47Z. Uno68'for Florian Neuhaus81'6.2

Match Stats

1. FC KölnBorussia Mönchengladbach
48%Ball Possession52%
6Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards3
19Total Shots16
7Shots on Goal7
10Shots off Goal4
13Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box9
2Blocked Shots5
8Fouls17
1Offsides1
6Goalkeeper Saves5
391Total Passes422
312Passes Accurate339
80%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
1673Elo Rating 1677
0.70Attack 1.73
2.10Defense 0.25
19%Hit Rate 27%
14.6Shots per Game 13.7
5.1Shots on Target 4.8
5.4Corners per Game 4.5
2.0Cards per Game 4.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.97 goals
📈BTTS Trend90% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

1. FC Köln1. FC Köln4Wins · 40%
Draws330%
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach3Wins · 30%
4.3Avg Goals
90%Both teams scored9 of 10
90%3+ goals9 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga21/03/2026
1. FC KölnBorussia Mönchengladbach
33
Bundesliga08/11/2025
Borussia Mönchengladbach1. FC Köln
31
Bundesliga09/03/2024
Borussia Monchengladbach1. FC Köln
33
Bundesliga22/10/2023
1. FC KölnBorussia Monchengladbach
31
Bundesliga02/04/2023
1. FC KölnBorussia Monchengladbach
00
Bundesliga09/10/2022
Borussia Monchengladbach1. FC Köln
52
Bundesliga16/04/2022
Borussia Monchengladbach1. FC Köln
13
Bundesliga27/11/2021
1. FC KölnBorussia Monchengladbach
41
Bundesliga06/02/2021
Borussia Monchengladbach1. FC Köln
12
Bundesliga03/10/2020
1. FC KölnBorussia Monchengladbach
13

Recent Form

1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
4W3D3L
03/10/2026
FC Viktoria Köln1. FC Köln
22
D
19/09/2026
Hamburger SV1. FC Köln
21
L
12/09/2026
1. FC KölnWerder Bremen
11
D
04/09/2026
VfB Stuttgart1. FC Köln
41
L
29/08/2026
1. FC Köln1899 Hoffenheim
32
W
24/08/2026
Würzburger Kickers1. FC Köln
12
W
08/08/2026
1. FC KölnReal Sociedad
21
W
31/07/2026
1. FC KölnHertha BSC
22
D
23/07/2026
Bergisch Gladbach1. FC Köln
08
W
16/05/2026
Bayern München1. FC Köln
51
L
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
5W1D4L
03/10/2026
FC St. PauliBorussia Mönchengladbach
11
D
19/09/2026
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05
34
L
12/09/2026
SC FreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
50
L
05/09/2026
Borussia MönchengladbachSV Elversberg
34
L
29/08/2026
RB LeipzigBorussia Mönchengladbach
30
L
23/08/2026
Schott MainzBorussia Mönchengladbach
05
W
15/08/2026
Borussia MönchengladbachAston Villa
21
W
12/08/2026
SSVg VelbertBorussia Mönchengladbach
08
W
01/08/2026
Hansa RostockBorussia Mönchengladbach
13
W
25/07/2026
Rot-Weiß EssenBorussia Mönchengladbach
12
W

Referee Profile

Florian Badstubner176 matches

3.63Cards per match
3.45Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
22.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Florian Badstubner3.63
Other referees4.21

3.63 cards a match, 0.58 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.21).

Cards come from 154 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München752025:6+1917WWDWW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund752012:4+817WDDWW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg741216:9+713LLWDW
4Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen741216:12+413LWWWD
5RB LeipzigRB Leipzig740320:11+912WLWLW
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen733115:14+112WDDWD
7FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05731316:13+310LWLWL
8SV ElversbergSV Elversberg731312:15-310LWLDL
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg723217:13+49DLDLD
101899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim730414:1409WWLLW
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV73046:16-109LWWWL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln72238:11-38DLWLD
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0772236:9-38WDLWL
14Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt722310:17-78LWLDW
15VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart720510:13-36LLWLL
16FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0471334:7-36DLLDW
17Union BerlinUnion Berlin71336:18-126DDWLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach710611:22-113WLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach forecast

As a derby, this Bundesliga meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, 1. FC Köln are 12th and Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: 1. FC Köln 8-11, Borussia Mönchengladbach 11-22. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.