Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction

Gremio
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Atletico Paranaense
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre·Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil 30/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.35
SignalSOLIDModel43%SurpriseHighGap-4.7%
Gremio Rest
3 days
Atletico Paranaense Rest
5 days

Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense: the result in context

Gremio beat Atletico Paranaense 2-0 in the Serie A on 30 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 7 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them. Atletico Paranaense tend to win more corners, 8.9 a game to 5.4 for Gremio.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
42%2.30
X
28%3.40
2
30%3.04
Double Chance
1X
70%1.35
X2
58%1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.67
No
44%2.08
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.36 + 1.38 = 2.74
Over 1.5
76%1.28
Over 2.5
52%1.90
Over 3.5
30%3.20
Under 1.5
24%3.60
Under 2.5
48%1.92
Under 3.5
70%1.34
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 5.4 = 10.7
Over 8.5
72%1.42
Over 9.5
61%1.77
Over 10.5
50%2.13
Under 8.5
28%2.56
Under 9.5
39%1.93
Under 10.5
50%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.6 = 5.3
Over 3.5
77%1.26
Over 4.5
61%1.59
Under 3.5
23%3.65
Under 4.5
39%2.26

Match Events

23'J. PortillaRoughing
29'J. EnamoradoTripping
37'Leo DerikTripping
39'Marlon
46'Leo Derik ING. Benavidez out
46'J. Portilla INB. Zapelli out
52'Fabian Balbuena
62'Leozinho INK. A. Calderon Vargas out
66'Carlos Vinicius
67'Carlos Vinicius INM. Braithwaite out
67'J. Enamorado INTete out
68'Fabian Balbuena INDodi out
69'E. NoriegaHolding
79'F. Amuzu INCaio Paulista out
80'Joao Cruz INJ. Rivaldo out
87'M. Villasanti INWagner Leonardo out
88'B. ZapelliHolding
89'S. Mendoza INDudu Kogitzki out
90+2'Weverton

Lineups

Gremio
3-4-3
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1
Avg rating6.94
Avg rating6.83
Weverton8.21Weverton
Gustavo Martins6.96G. Martins
Fabián Balbuena7.92F. Balbuena
Wallace6.982Wallace
João Pedro6.618J. Pedro
Erick Noriega7.08E. Noriega
Mathias VillasantiC6.920M. Villasanti
Marlon7.923Marlon
José Enamorado6.799J. Enamorado
Carlos Vinícius6.695C. Vinícius
Francis Amuzu6.39F. Amuzu
Mycael6.71Mycael
Arthur Dias6.94A. Dias
Juan Felipe Aguirre6.633J. Felipe Aguirre
Lucas Esquivel7.537L. Esquivel
Steven Mendoza6.77S. Mendoza
Juan Portilla6.527J. Portilla
Luiz GustavoC7.914L. Gustavo
Leonardo Derik6.56L. Derik
Leozinho7.521Leozinho
João Cruz6.38J. Cruz
Kevin Viveros6.59K. Viveros

Gremio Substitutes

12Gabriel Grando
14Marcos Rocha
54Pedro Gabriel
3Wagner Leonardo87'for M. Villasanti
38Caio Paulista79'for F. Amuzu
50Zortéa
10Filip Krovinović
17Dodi68'for Fabian Balbuena6.6
48João Borne
30Matheus Nascimento
11Tetê67'for J. Enamorado6.5
22Martin Braithwaite67'for Carlos Vinicius6.2

Atletico Paranaense Substitutes

23Santos
29Gastón Benavídez46'for Leo Derik6.3
55Bruno Baldini
2Gilberto Junior
25Dantas
53Dudu89'for S. Mendoza
47Chiqueti
18Kerwin Vargas62'for Leozinho6.7
5Felipinho
10Bruno Zapelli46'for J. Portilla88'7.0
19Jorge Rivaldo80'for Joao Cruz
70Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno

Match Stats

GremioAtletico Paranaense
31%Ball Possession69%
6Corner Kicks8
3Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots14
5Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box8
7Shots Outside Box6
6Blocked Shots6
13Fouls14
2Offsides0
4Goalkeeper Saves3
220Total Passes495
163Passes Accurate447
74%Pass Accuracy90%

Team Comparison

GremioGremio
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
1607Elo Rating 1727
1.24Attack 1.66
1.08Defense 1.61
0%Hit Rate 34%
13.7Shots per Game 17.0
4.6Shots on Target 5.4
5.4Corners per Game 8.9
3.6Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

⚠️Home Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

GremioGremio
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

GremioGremio3Wins · 43%
Draws114%
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3Wins · 43%
2.4Avg Goals
43%Both teams scored3 of 7
43%3+ goals3 of 7

Previous meetings

Serie A03/05/2026
Atletico ParanaenseGremio
00
Serie A04/08/2024
Atletico ParanaenseGremio
02
Serie A18/04/2024
GremioAtletico Paranaense
20
Serie A19/10/2023
GremioAtletico Paranaense
12
Serie A27/05/2023
Atletico ParanaenseGremio
12
Serie A26/09/2021
Atletico ParanaenseGremio
42
Serie A13/06/2021
GremioAtletico Paranaense
01

Recent Form

Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
3W5D2L
24/10/2026
VitoriaAtletico Paranaense
11
D
18/10/2026
Atletico ParanaensePalmeiras
02
L
13/10/2026
Chapecoense-scAtletico Paranaense
14
W
09/10/2026
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MG
22
D
21/09/2026
Atletico ParanaenseBahia
21
W
12/09/2026
CoritibaAtletico Paranaense
33
D
06/09/2026
CruzeiroAtletico Paranaense
31
L
30/08/2026
Atletico ParanaenseFluminense
33
D
25/08/2026
BotafogoAtletico Paranaense
23
W
15/08/2026
Atletico ParanaenseRB Bragantino
11
D

Referee Profile

Alex Gomes Stefano137 matches

5.16Cards per match
4.86Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
29.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Alex Gomes Stefano5.16
Other referees5.26

5.16 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.26).

Cards come from 95 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo32217464:27+3770WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras332010356:22+3470DWWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro321661051:46+554WWWLW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254DLWDW
5FluminenseFluminense33159952:42+1054WLLLW
6BahiaBahia331411848:42+653WDLWL
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG321481044:38+650LWWDW
8SantosSantos3312111049:47+247DDWLD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino331281342:38+444WLDWD
10Sao PauloSao Paulo331271439:39043LDWWL
11BotafogoBotafogo331091445:53-839LLWDL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama311081339:45-638WLDWW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
16InternacionalInternacional338111437:42-535LWLDW
17GremioGremio328101435:44-934WLDDD
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo336111636:51-1529WLDDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc32491932:66-3421LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3264:2770
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3356:2270
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3251:4654
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3250:3854
5FluminenseFluminense3352:4254
6BahiaBahia3348:4253
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3244:3850
8SantosSantos3349:4747
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3342:3844
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3339:3943
11BotafogoBotafogo3345:5339
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3139:4538
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15MirassolMirassol3237:4537
16InternacionalInternacional3337:4235
17GremioGremio3235:4434
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3336:5129
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3232:6621
PromotionRelegation

About the Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Gremio and Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A table

The table shows a wide gap: Atletico Paranaense are 4th in the Serie A, while Gremio sit 17th, 20 points behind. League goal record so far: Gremio 35-44, Atletico Paranaense 50-38. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.