Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction
Brazil · Regular Season - 27
12/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.69
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+7.3%
Gremio Rest
4 days
Vasco DA Gama Rest
3 days
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama: the result in context
Vasco DA Gama beat Gremio 2-1 in the Serie A on 12 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 9 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
136%2.75
X29%3.20
235%2.60
Double Chance
1X66%1.46
X264%1.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.78
No46%1.93
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.24 + 0.96 = 2.20
Over 1.571%1.33
Over 2.545%2.08
Over 3.525%3.75
Under 1.529%3.15
Under 2.555%1.75
Under 3.575%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.9 = 9.6
Over 8.559%1.35
Over 9.546%1.62
Over 10.536%2.00
Under 8.541%2.85
Under 9.554%2.10
Under 10.564%1.69
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.8 = 4.9
Over 3.572%1.34
Over 4.554%1.73
Under 3.528%3.06
Under 4.546%2.00
Match Events
7'Pedro GabrielFoul
26'Tchê TchêFoul
32'Wallace Gomes da Silva SantosFoul
39'Mathias Villasanti
45+2'CuiabanoFoul
53'Robert RenanFoul
55'Adson INBruno Duarte Da Silva out
55'Paulo Henrique INJose Luis Rodriguez out
58'Diego Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos SantosDissent
61'Jovane Cabral INJuan Nardoni out
71'Tetê INJosé Enamorado out
73'Tchê Tchê INAlan Lescano out
73'Carlos Cuesta INJair out
76'Thiago Mendes
78'Cuiabano INLucas Piton out
80'Facundo ColidioAssist: Bruno Duarte Da Silva
86'Walter Kannemann INMatheus Nascimento out
Lineups
GremioVasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Coach: Pedro EmanuelAvg ratingAvg rating
1Weverton
27D. Caito
82Wallace
4W. Kannemann
54P. Gabriel
8E. Noriega
11Tetê
20M. Villasanti
10F. Krovinović
77J. Cabral
95C. Vinícius
1L. Jardim
96P. Henrique
46C. Cuesta
30R. Renan
66Cuiabano
5S. Sosa
28Adson
3T. Tchê
23T. Mendes
11A. Gómez
9F. ColidioGremio Substitutes
30Matheus Nascimento86'for Walter Kannemann
5J. Nardoni61'for Jovane Cabral
14Marcos Rocha
50Bernardo Zortea
22M. Braithwaite
3Wagner Leonardo
15Danilo Barbosa
99J. Enamorado71'for Tetê
65Riquelme Freitas
12Gabriel Grando
6Gustavo Martins
18João Pedro
Vasco DA Gama Substitutes
8Jair73'for Carlos Cuesta
17Nuno Moreira
6Lucas Piton78'for Cuiabano
22A. Lescano73'for Tchê Tchê
18M. Hinestroza
19Bruno Duarte55'for Adson
7David
13Daniel Fuzato
88Cauan Barros
2J. Rodríguez55'for Paulo Henrique
83Ramon Rique
43Lucas Freitas
Match Stats
GremioVasco DA Gama 51%Ball Possession49%
3Corner Kicks5
3Yellow Cards3
13Total Shots17
5Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box12
7Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots7
10Fouls14
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves4
482Total Passes463
394Passes Accurate387
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Team Comparison
GremioVasco DA Gama1607Elo Rating 1731
1.24Attack 0.75
1.08Defense 1.82
0%Hit Rate 34%
13.7Shots per Game 13.2
4.6Shots on Target 3.3
5.4Corners per Game 5.4
3.6Cards per Game 1.6
AI Insights
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Gremio- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.4 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Vasco DA Gama- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
Gremio4Wins · 45%Draws222%
Vasco DA Gama3Wins · 33%
3Wins · 33%1.8Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
33%3+ goals3 of 9
Previous meetings
22/03/2026Vasco DA GamaGremio21
20/11/2025GremioVasco DA Gama20
19/07/2025Vasco DA GamaGremio11
29/07/2024GremioVasco DA Gama10
14/04/2024Vasco DA GamaGremio21
03/12/2023GremioVasco DA Gama10
06/08/2023Vasco DA GamaGremio10
11/09/2022GremioVasco DA Gama21
03/06/2022Vasco DA GamaGremio00
Recent Form
Gremio4W2D4L
Vasco DA Gama4W3D3L
09/09/2026
Santa FeVasco DA Gama
VitoriaVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
PalmeirasVasco DA Gama
OlimpiaVasco DA GamaVasco DA GamaOlimpia
BahiaVasco DA Gama
Santa FeVasco DA Gama00
D06/09/2026
FluminenseVasco DA Gama
03/09/2026FluminenseVasco DA Gama10
LVitoriaVasco DA Gama02
W30/08/2026Vasco DA GamaCruzeiro31
W27/08/2026Vasco DA GamaVitoria
23/08/2026Vasco DA GamaVitoria10
WPalmeirasVasco DA Gama41
L21/08/2026OlimpiaVasco DA Gama14
W16/08/2026Vasco DA Gama
Santos
14/08/2026Vasco DA GamaSantos03
LVasco DA GamaOlimpia00
D09/08/2026BahiaVasco DA Gama00
DLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
| 18 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | 64:27 | 70 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 56:22 | 69 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 51:46 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 50:41 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 44:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 45:40 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 49:47 | 46 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 37:36 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 39:38 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 44:51 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 38:50 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 39:45 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 35:46 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 37:45 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 36:40 | 35 |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 35:44 | 34 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 34:50 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 32:63 | 21 |
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About the Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama forecast
The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Gremio and Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A table
In the Serie A table, Vasco DA Gama are 13th and Gremio 17th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Gremio 35-44, Vasco DA Gama 39-45. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.