Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction
Brazil · Regular Season - 27
12/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.57
SignalSOLIDModel43%SurpriseMediumGap+3.8%
Value Analysis
57%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.83
SignalNEUTRALModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+4.8%
Coritiba Rest
5 days
Atletico Paranaense Rest
5 days
Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense: the result in context
Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense drew 3-3 in the Serie A on 12 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.6 goals a game. Atletico Paranaense tend to win more corners, 8.9 a game to 5.0 for Coritiba.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
139%3.12
X29%3.19
232%2.33
Double Chance
1X68%1.57
X261%1.34
Both Teams to Score
Yes57%1.83
No43%1.88
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.28 + 1.15 = 2.43
Over 1.573%1.36
Over 2.547%2.16
Over 3.527%3.90
Under 1.527%3.00
Under 2.553%1.70
Under 3.573%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.5 = 9.7
Over 8.559%1.28
Over 9.546%1.52
Over 10.536%1.87
Under 8.541%3.14
Under 9.554%2.31
Under 10.564%1.83
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.3 = 4.4
Over 3.564%1.14
Over 4.545%1.29
Under 3.536%5.30
Under 4.555%3.40
Match Events
14'Luiz GustavoAssist: Lucas Esquivel
28'Joaquin LavegaFoul
30'Arthur DiasAssist: João Victor Machado Cruz
34'JacyFoul
34'Kevin ViverosDissent
43'João Victor Machado CruzFoul
44'Card upgrade confirmedBreno Lopes
45'Gaston Americo Benavidez INGilberto out
45'João Victor Machado Cruz INCarlos Teran out
45'Bruno Melo INRichard out
45'Pedro Rocha INRodrigo Rodrigues out
45'Joaquin Lavega INPaulo Roberto out
45'JP Chermont INRodrigo Moledo out
45'João Vitor Silva Dantas de Oliveira INAntonio Feliphe Costa Silva out
45+1'Breno LopesAbusive Language
45+2'Tiago Coser
45+5'João Vitor Silva Dantas de OliveiraFoul
45+9'JP ChermontFoul
45+12'Pedro RochaHandball
63'Kevin Viveros(Penalty)
67'Kevin Viveros INRenan Peixoto Nepomuceno out
74'Thiago Santos INRodrigo Silva Nascimento out
90+1'Rodrigo MoledoAssist: Josué
90+3'Luiz GustavoDissent
90+4'Stiven Mendoza INJuan Portilla out
90+7'Rodrigo MoledoAssist: Josué
Lineups
CoritibaAtletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Coach: Odair HellmannAvg ratingAvg rating
1P. Luccas
44J. Pedro Chermont
23T. Cóser
55Jacy
26B. Melo
21T. Santos
19S. Gómez
77B. Lopes
10Josué
7J. Lavega
32P. Rocha
1Mycael
25Dantas
33J. Aguirre
4A. Dias
29G. Benavídez
16Jádson
14L. Gustavo
37L. Esquivel
8J. Cruz
7S. Mendoza
9K. ViverosCoritiba Substitutes
39Gustavo
28Fabinho
3Maicon
18Paulo Roberto45'for Joaquin Lavega
22Pedro Rangel
78Renato Marques
25Richard45'for Bruno Melo
66Rodrigo Gelado74'for Thiago Santos
4Rodrigo Moledo45'for JP Chermont90+1'90+7'
99Rodrigo Rodrigues45'for Pedro Rocha
50Tissi
36Vini Paulista
Atletico Paranaense Substitutes
10B. Zapelli
22C. Terán45'for João Victor Machado Cruz
23Santos
70Renan67'for Kevin Viveros
27J. Portilla90+4'for Stiven Mendoza
21Leozinho
3Léo
12Gilberto45'for Gaston Americo Benavidez
5Felipinho45'for João Vitor Silva Dantas de Oliveira
53Dudu
18K. Vargas
47Chiqueti
Match Stats
CoritibaAtletico Paranaense 61%Ball Possession39%
8Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
23Total Shots14
7Shots on Goal5
8Shots off Goal4
15Shots Inside Box8
8Shots Outside Box6
8Blocked Shots5
15Fouls23
1Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves2
258Total Passes170
125Passes Accurate74
21Free Kicks13
Team Comparison
CoritibaAtletico Paranaense1607Elo Rating 1727
0.65Attack 1.66
0.47Defense 1.61
0%Hit Rate 34%
11.9Shots per Game 17.0
2.6Shots on Target 5.4
5.0Corners per Game 8.9
2.5Cards per Game 2.2
AI Insights
🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Coritiba- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Atletico Paranaense- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.5 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Coritiba3Wins · 30%Draws440%
Atletico Paranaense3Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%1.6Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
10%3+ goals1 of 10
Previous meetings
22/03/2026Atletico ParanaenseCoritiba20
17/01/2026Atletico ParanaenseCoritiba01
19/10/2025CoritibaAtletico Paranaense00
28/06/2025Atletico ParanaenseCoritiba01
25/01/2025CoritibaAtletico Paranaense00
18/02/2024CoritibaAtletico Paranaense11
01/10/2023CoritibaAtletico Paranaense20
14/05/2023Atletico ParanaenseCoritiba32
05/02/2023Atletico ParanaenseCoritiba11
17/10/2022Atletico ParanaenseCoritiba10
AtletibaFull head-to-head record
Recent Form
Coritiba4W2D4L
06/09/2026Coritiba
Mirassol
RemoCoritibaCoritiba
CorinthiansCoritiba
Chapecoense-scCoritiba
Cruzeiro
RB BragantinoCoritibaCoritiba
Palmeiras
CoritibaMirassol12
L01/09/2026RemoCoritiba23
W24/08/2026CoritibaCorinthians21
W16/08/2026
Sao PauloCoritiba
09/08/2026Sao PauloCoritiba11
DCoritibaChapecoense-sc21
W31/07/2026CoritibaCruzeiro01
L26/07/2026RB BragantinoCoritiba00
D23/07/2026CoritibaPalmeiras13
L30/05/2026
FlamengoCoritiba
FlamengoCoritiba30
L26/05/2026Coritiba
Bahia
CoritibaBahia32
WAtletico Paranaense5W3D2L
06/09/2026CruzeiroAtletico Paranaense
30/08/2026CruzeiroAtletico Paranaense31
LAtletico Paranaense
Fluminense33
D25/08/2026
BotafogoAtletico Paranaense23
W15/08/2026Atletico ParanaenseRB Bragantino11
D09/08/2026
SantosAtletico Paranaense02
W07/08/2026
VitoriaAtletico Paranaense40
L04/08/2026Atletico ParanaenseVitoria20
W31/07/2026CorinthiansAtletico Paranaense00
D25/07/2026Atletico Paranaense
Internacional20
W23/07/2026Sao PauloAtletico Paranaense12
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 |  Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | 64:27 | 70 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 56:22 | 69 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 51:46 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 50:41 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 44:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 45:40 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 49:47 | 46 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 37:36 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 39:38 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 44:51 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 38:50 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 39:45 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 35:46 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 37:45 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 36:40 | 35 |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 35:44 | 34 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 34:50 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 32:63 | 21 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Serie A matches
About the Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense forecast
As a derby, this Serie A meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A table
In the Serie A table, Atletico Paranaense are 4th and Coritiba 12th, 15 points apart. League goal record so far: Coritiba 38-50, Atletico Paranaense 50-38. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.