Gremio vs Cruzeiro Prediction
Brazil · Regular Season - 31
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.21
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap-3.7%
Gremio Rest
6 days
Cruzeiro Rest
5 days
Gremio vs Cruzeiro: the result in context
Match Forecasts
Match Result
130%3.20
X26%3.60
244%2.15
Double Chance
1X56%1.68
X270%1.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes58%1.58
No42%2.23
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.33 + 1.58 = 2.91
Over 1.578%1.21
Over 2.555%1.73
Over 3.534%2.75
Under 1.522%3.99
Under 2.545%2.08
Under 3.566%1.41
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 5.1 = 10.8
Over 8.573%1.46
Over 9.562%1.85
Over 10.551%2.24
Under 8.527%2.49
Under 9.538%1.95
Under 10.549%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 3.1 + 2.9 = 6
Over 3.585%1.33
Over 4.571%1.80
Under 3.515%3.11
Under 4.529%1.91
Match Events
17'Carlos Vinícius(Penalty)
23'Kaio JorgeAssist: Matheus Pereira
36'Danilo Barbosa da Silva INErick Noriega out
41'Cristian Pavón
48'Kaio Jorge
61'Kaio JorgeAssist: William
66'Filip Krovinović INMartin Braithwaite out
66'Zé Lucas INMatheus Henrique out
67'João MarceloFoul
71'Matheus PereiraDissent
73'Walter KannemannFoul
73'Walter KannemannAbusive Language
76'Keny arroyoFoul
79'Keny arroyo INWesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira out
80'João MarceloAssist: Gerson
90'Francis Amuzu INJosé Enamorado out
90'Cristian Pavón INTetê out
90+2'Kaio Jorge INLuciano Rodríguez out
90+2'João Marcelo INFabrício Bruno out
90+2'Gerson INBruno Rodrigues out
Lineups
GremioCruzeiro
4-2-3-1Coach: Artur JorgeAvg ratingAvg rating
1Weverton
27D. Caito
6G. Martins
4W. Kannemann
23Marlon
20M. Villasanti
15D. Barbosa
7C. Pavón
10F. Krovinović
9F. Amuzu
95C. Vinícius
81O. Eleodoro Rezende Costa
12William
43J. Marcelo
34Jonathan
25L. Villalba
5Z. Lucas
29L. Romero
99K. Arroyo
10M. Pereira
8Gerson
19K. JorgeGremio Substitutes
3Wagner Leonardo
11Tetê90'for Cristian Pavón
22M. Braithwaite66'for Filip Krovinović
54Pedro Gabriel
99J. Enamorado90'for Francis Amuzu
12Gabriel Grando
18João Pedro
17Dodi
8E. Noriega36'for Danilo Barbosa da Silva
14Marcos Rocha
38Caio Paulista
2F. Balbuena
Cruzeiro Substitutes
1Cássio
9Bruno Rodrigues90+2'for Gerson
15Fabrício Bruno90+2'for João Marcelo
23Fágner
2Kauã Moraes
16Lucas Silva
11Marquinhos
7Matheus Henrique66'for Zé Lucas
97L. Rodríguez90+2'for Kaio Jorge
27G. Rojas
6M. Viña
20Wesley Gassova79'for Keny arroyo
Match Stats
GremioCruzeiro 40%Ball Possession60%
8Corner Kicks9
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
17Total Shots13
6Shots on Goal6
6Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box9
8Shots Outside Box4
5Blocked Shots4
19Fouls16
0Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves4
332Total Passes503
258Passes Accurate434
15Free Kicks19
Team Comparison
GremioCruzeiro1607Elo Rating 1781
1.24Attack 2.33
1.08Defense 1.62
0%Hit Rate 81%
13.7Shots per Game 15.9
4.6Shots on Target 7.2
5.4Corners per Game 6.7
3.6Cards per Game 1.8
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.91 goals
Game State Tendencies
Gremio- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.4 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Cruzeiro- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Gremio2Wins · 20%Draws220%
Cruzeiro6Wins · 60%
6Wins · 60%2.3Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
12/07/2026GremioCruzeiro13
19/04/2026CruzeiroGremio20
06/11/2025GremioCruzeiro01
14/07/2025CruzeiroGremio41
28/11/2024CruzeiroGremio11
10/07/2024GremioCruzeiro02
28/08/2023GremioCruzeiro30
01/06/2023CruzeiroGremio01
18/05/2023GremioCruzeiro11
23/04/2023CruzeiroGremio10
Recent Form
Gremio2W4D4L
Cruzeiro4W1D5L
13/10/2026
RB BragantinoCruzeiroCruzeiro
Sao Paulo
VitoriaCruzeiro
SantosCruzeiro
Atletico-MGCruzeiro
Vasco DA GamaCruzeiroCruzeiroAtletico-MGCruzeiro
FlamengoFlamengoCruzeiro
RB BragantinoCruzeiro42
L08/10/2026CruzeiroSao Paulo20
W20/09/2026VitoriaCruzeiro13
W13/09/2026SantosCruzeiro21
L06/09/2026Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
02/09/2026CruzeiroAtletico Paranaense31
WAtletico-MGCruzeiro21
L30/08/2026Vasco DA GamaCruzeiro31
L26/08/2026CruzeiroAtletico-MG11
D23/08/2026CruzeiroFlamengo21
W20/08/2026FlamengoCruzeiro21
LReferee Profile
4.81Cards per match
4.45Yellow cards per match
0.36Red cards per match
27.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.81 cards a match, 0.25 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.06).
Cards come from 78 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| 7 |  Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
| 18 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | 64:27 | 70 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 56:22 | 69 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 51:46 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 50:41 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 44:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 45:40 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 49:47 | 46 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 37:36 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 39:38 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 44:51 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 38:50 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 39:45 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 35:46 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 37:45 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 36:40 | 35 |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 35:44 | 34 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 34:50 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 32:63 | 21 |
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About the Gremio vs Cruzeiro forecast
The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Gremio and Cruzeiro in the Serie A table
The table shows a wide gap: Cruzeiro are 3rd in the Serie A, while Gremio sit 17th, 20 points behind. League goal record so far: Gremio 35-44, Cruzeiro 51-46. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.