Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Botafogo
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Chapecoense-sc
Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro·Raphael Claus 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.36
SignalGOODModel75%SurpriseMediumGap+0.4%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.36
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Botafogo Rest
5 days
Chapecoense-sc Rest
4 days

Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc: result, form and history

Botafogo beat Chapecoense-sc 1-0 in the Serie A on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 3 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 1 of them. Referee Raphael Claus averages 4.31 cards a game, 0.74 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
72%1.36
X
18%5.00
2
10%7.60
Double Chance
1X
90%1.08
X2
28%3.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.66
No
46%2.08
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.96 + 0.89 = 2.85
Over 1.5
82%1.11
Over 2.5
61%1.42
Over 3.5
40%2.13
Under 1.5
18%5.38
Under 2.5
39%2.60
Under 3.5
60%1.70
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 4.2 = 10.5
Over 8.5
69%1.31
Over 9.5
58%1.58
Over 10.5
47%2.00
Under 8.5
31%2.92
Under 9.5
42%2.17
Under 10.5
53%1.77
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.8 = 4.6
Over 3.5
68%1.67
Over 4.5
49%2.00
Under 3.5
32%2.10
Under 4.5
51%1.73

Match Events

7'Tiquinho SoaresAssist: Matheus Martins
14'Kauan FariaFoul
45'Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior INYannick Bolasie out
55'Hakim Ziyech INCristian Medina out
62'Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira INRodrigo out
62'Giovanni Augusto INMax out
65'Allan INdomingos andrade out
66'Tiquinho Soares INDanilo out
76'Matheus Martins INJúnior Santos out
76'Álvaro Montoro INKauan Toledo out
82'Bruno Nunes De Barros INLuis Eduardo Marques dos Santos out
88'Camilo Reijers de Oliveira INF. Rossi out

Lineups

Botafogo
4-2-3-1Coach: Tite
Chapecoense-sc
4-4-2Coach: Rafael Lacerda
Avg rating7.06
Avg rating6.63
Gabriel Batista6.912G. Batista
Vitinho7.32Vitinho
N. Ferraresi7.15N. Ferraresi
Marçal7.221Marçal
Alex Telles8.013A. Telles
Allan6.525Allan
Danilo Santos7.28D. Santos
H. Ziyech7.022H. Ziyech
Álvaro Montoro6.310Á. Montoro
Matheus Martins7.711M. Martins
Tiquinho Soares8.29T. Soares
Anderson8.898Anderson
Bruno Tubarão6.720B. Tubarão
Kauan Faria Gomes6.221K. Faria Gomes
Doma6.63Doma
Bruno Pacheco6.991B. Pacheco
Garcez6.231Garcez
Yago Felipe6.788Y. Felipe
Camilo7.127Camilo
Fernando6.612Fernando
Giovanni Augusto6.410G. Augusto
99T. Eduardo Silva De Oliveira

Botafogo Substitutes

7Júnior Santos76'for Matheus Martins6.6
6C. Medina55'for Hakim Ziyech6.4
29Paulinho
59Kauan Toledo76'for Álvaro Montoro7.1
33G. Justino
4M. Ponte
91Domingos Andrade65'for Allan6.8
19Arthur Cabral
37K. Barria
77L. Villalba
90Danilo66'for Tiquinho Soares6.7
75Huguinho
17Warleson

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

11Y. Bolasie45'for Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior7.0
16Bruno Matias
80Miguel Carvalho
23Dudu82'for Bruno Nunes De Barros6.3
4João Paulo
22Max62'for Giovanni Augusto6.3
15Rafael Thyere
39Rodrigo62'replaced by Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira5.9
30Matheus Aurélio
29F. Rossi88'for Camilo Reijers de Oliveira6.0

Match Stats

BotafogoChapecoense-sc
51%Ball Possession49%
4Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards1
20Total Shots9
11Shots on Goal0
5Shots off Goal6
12Shots Inside Box4
8Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots3
9Fouls12
2Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves10
529Total Passes490
473Passes Accurate425
12Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

BotafogoBotafogo
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
1620Elo Rating 1508
0.59Attack 0.54
1.38Defense 0.59
23%Hit Rate 0%
14.6Shots per Game 12.4
5.6Shots on Target 2.8
5.9Corners per Game 4.5
1.5Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+112 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BotafogoBotafogo
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
  • No tendency data available

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

BotafogoBotafogo2Wins · 67%
Draws00%
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc1Wins · 33%
2.7Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
33%3+ goals1 of 3

Previous meetings

Copa Do Brasil14/05/2026
Chapecoense-scBotafogo
20
Copa Do Brasil21/04/2026
BotafogoChapecoense-sc
10
Serie A18/04/2026
Chapecoense-scBotafogo
14

Referee Profile

Raphael Claus295 matches

4.31Cards per match
4.06Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
24.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Raphael Claus4.31
Other referees5.05

4.31 cards a match, 0.74 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).

Cards come from 287 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo32217464:27+3770WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras32209356:22+3469WWWWD
3CruzeiroCruzeiro321661051:46+554WWLWW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254DLWDW
5FluminenseFluminense32149950:41+951LLLWW
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG321481044:38+650LWWDW
7BahiaBahia321311845:40+550DLWLL
8SantosSantos3212101049:47+246DWLDW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo321271337:36+143DWWLL
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino321181339:38+141LDWDL
11BotafogoBotafogo321091344:51-739LWDLL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama311081339:45-638WLDWW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
16InternacionalInternacional328111336:40-435WLDWL
17GremioGremio328101435:44-934WLDDD
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo325111634:50-1626LDDDL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc31491832:63-3121LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3264:2770
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3256:2269
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3251:4654
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3250:3854
5FluminenseFluminense3250:4151
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3244:3850
7BahiaBahia3245:4050
8SantosSantos3249:4746
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3237:3643
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3239:3841
11BotafogoBotafogo3244:5139
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3139:4538
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15MirassolMirassol3237:4537
16InternacionalInternacional3236:4035
17GremioGremio3235:4434
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3234:5026
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3132:6321
PromotionRelegation

About the Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Botafogo and Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Botafogo are 11th and Chapecoense-sc 20th, 18 points apart. League goal record so far: Botafogo 44-51, Chapecoense-sc 32-63. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.