Corinthians vs Vitoria Prediction

Corinthians
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Vitoria
Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo·Savio Pereira Sampaio 20/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
62%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.53
SignalNEUTRALModel58%SurpriseMediumGap-3.5%
Corinthians Rest
8 days
Vitoria Rest
8 days

Corinthians vs Vitoria: the result in context

Corinthians and Vitoria drew 1-1 in the Serie A on 20 Oct 2026. Vitoria had gone in with the better form, having won 2 of their previous five against none for Corinthians.

Corinthians have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 1.8 goals a game. Referee Savio Pereira Sampaio averages 4.52 cards a game, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.53
X
24%3.90
2
16%6.55
Double Chance
1X
84%1.11
X2
40%2.42
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%2.15
No
52%1.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.59 + 1.19 = 2.78
Over 1.5
73%1.33
Over 2.5
48%2.12
Over 3.5
27%3.82
Under 1.5
27%3.10
Under 2.5
52%1.71
Under 3.5
73%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 4.7 = 10.6
Over 8.5
71%1.36
Over 9.5
60%1.68
Over 10.5
49%2.07
Under 8.5
29%2.74
Under 9.5
40%2.06
Under 10.5
51%1.69
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.9 = 5.6
Over 3.5
81%1.18
Over 4.5
66%1.41
Under 3.5
19%4.45
Under 4.5
34%2.78

Match Events

45+1'Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira
53'Carlos Renê de Sousa FerreiraDissent
62'Penalty confirmedAndré
66'Yuri Alberto(Penalty)
67'Vitinho INKaio César out
79'Jesse Lingard INMatheus Bidu out
80'André INCharles out
80'Matheuzinho INZé Vitor out
80'Diego Tarzia INLucas Silva out
85'Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira INFabri out
89'Penalty cancelledMatheus Bidu
90+3'Yuri Alberto INGui Negão out
90+4'Caíque Gonçalves INWalace out
90+4'Erick INIgnacio Laquintana out

Lineups

Corinthians
4-2-3-1Coach: C. Seedorf
Vitoria
4-1-4-1Coach: Jair Ventura
Avg rating6.73
Avg rating6.52
Hugo Souza6.91H. Souza
Matheuzinho6.82Matheuzinho
Gabriel Paulista7.13G. Paulista
Gustavo Henrique6.813G. Henrique
F. Angileri7.226F. Angileri
Andre6.549Andre
Breno7.17Breno
Vitinho6.611Vitinho
R. Garro6.58R. Garro
J. Lingard6.777J. Lingard
Yuri Alberto7.09Y. Alberto
Lucas Arcanjo7.71L. Arcanjo
Mateusinho5.998Mateusinho
E. Brítez6.72E. Brítez
Luan Cândido6.936L. Cândido
Jamerson6.383Jamerson
E. Martínez6.66E. Martínez
Erick6.133Erick
Matheuzinho6.010Matheuzinho
Caíque6.595Caíque
D. Tarzia6.212D. Tarzia
Rene7.091Rene

Corinthians Substitutes

37Kaio César67'for Vitinho6.4
19A. Carrillo
4João Pedro
51Kauê Camargo
21Matheus Bidu79'for Jesse Lingard6.3
56Guilherme Inácio90+3'for Yuri Alberto
61Dieguinho
35Charles80'for André6.2
20P. Milans
18Pedro Raul
29Allan
5André Ramalho

Vitoria Substitutes

88Zé Vitor80'for Matheuzinho6.4
23Fabrício85'for Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira6.4
77I. Laquintana90+4'for Erick
20Lucas Silva80'for Diego Tarzia6.5
7Marinho
8T. Pochettino
16Rúben Ismael
79Renato Kayzer
15Walace90+4'for Caíque Gonçalves
71Yuri Sena
9Alex Bruno
26Edenilson

Match Stats

CorinthiansVitoria
68%Ball Possession32%
9Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards1
21Total Shots5
6Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal0
13Shots Inside Box3
8Shots Outside Box2
8Blocked Shots0
10Fouls14
1Offsides4
4Goalkeeper Saves5
637Total Passes306
562Passes Accurate235
13Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

CorinthiansCorinthians
VitoriaVitoria
1607Elo Rating 1627
0.86Attack 1.50
0.79Defense 1.69
0%Hit Rate 17%
17.3Shots per Game 12.7
5.1Shots on Target 5.1
7.7Corners per Game 3.1
2.9Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CorinthiansCorinthians
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0 in first half)
VitoriaVitoria
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

CorinthiansCorinthians3Wins · 60%
Draws240%
VitoriaVitoria0Wins · 0%
1.8Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A19/04/2026
VitoriaCorinthians
00
Serie A25/10/2025
VitoriaCorinthians
01
Serie A01/06/2025
CorinthiansVitoria
00
Serie A09/11/2024
VitoriaCorinthians
12
Serie A05/07/2024
CorinthiansVitoria
32

Referee Profile

Savio Pereira Sampaio168 matches

4.52Cards per match
4.34Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Savio Pereira Sampaio4.52
Other referees5.18

4.52 cards a match, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).

Cards come from 151 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo32217464:27+3770WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras332010356:22+3470DWWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro321661051:46+554WWWLW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254DLWDW
5FluminenseFluminense33159952:42+1054WLLLW
6BahiaBahia331411848:42+653WDLWL
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG321481044:38+650LWWDW
8SantosSantos3312111049:47+247DDWLD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino331281342:38+444WLDWD
10Sao PauloSao Paulo331271439:39043LDWWL
11BotafogoBotafogo331091445:53-839LLWDL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama311081339:45-638WLDWW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
16InternacionalInternacional338111437:42-535LWLDW
17GremioGremio328101435:44-934WLDDD
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo336111636:51-1529WLDDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc32491932:66-3421LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3264:2770
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3356:2270
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3251:4654
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3250:3854
5FluminenseFluminense3352:4254
6BahiaBahia3348:4253
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3244:3850
8SantosSantos3349:4747
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3342:3844
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3339:3943
11BotafogoBotafogo3345:5339
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3139:4538
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15MirassolMirassol3237:4537
16InternacionalInternacional3337:4235
17GremioGremio3235:4434
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3336:5129
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3232:6621
PromotionRelegation

About the Corinthians vs Vitoria forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Corinthians and Vitoria in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Vitoria are 14th and Corinthians 18th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Corinthians 34-42, Vitoria 35-46. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Vitoria have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.