Vitoria vs Cruzeiro Prediction

Vitoria
1-3
Finished
HT 1-0
Cruzeiro
Estadio Manoel Barradas, El Salvador·Matheus Delgado Candancan 20/09/2026
VitoriaVitoria
1-3
Finished
CruzeiroCruzeiro

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Over 4.5
1.65
SignalSOLIDModel63%SurpriseMediumGap+5.3%
Vitoria Rest
7 days
Cruzeiro Rest
7 days

Vitoria vs Cruzeiro: result, form and history

Cruzeiro beat Vitoria 3-1 in the Serie A on 20 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 7 previous meetings averaged 3.1 goals, and both sides scored in 4 of them. Referee Matheus Delgado Candancan averages 4.59 cards a game, 0.50 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
32%2.95
X
28%3.40
2
40%2.35
Double Chance
1X
60%1.55
X2
68%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.65
No
42%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.25 + 1.28 = 2.53
Over 1.5
75%1.25
Over 2.5
52%1.86
Over 3.5
30%3.10
Under 1.5
25%3.60
Under 2.5
48%1.94
Under 3.5
70%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.6 = 10.3
Over 8.5
67%1.42
Over 9.5
55%1.74
Over 10.5
40%2.19
Under 8.5
33%2.56
Under 9.5
45%2.00
Under 10.5
60%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.4 = 4.7
Over 3.5
70%1.45
Over 4.5
51%1.93
Under 3.5
30%2.63
Under 4.5
49%1.80

Match Events

39'Carlos Renê de Sousa FerreiraAssist: Matheuzinho
41'Jonathan JesusFoul
45'Fagner INWilliam out
45'Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira INFelipe Morais out
45'Matheusinho INEmanuel Brítez out
45'Caíque Gonçalves INZé Vitor out
46'Keny arroyoAssist: Kaio Jorge
56'Gabriel Rojas INLucas Villalba out
56'Zé Lucas INMatheus Henrique out
66'Lucas VillalbaAssist: Keny arroyo
69'Erick INLucas Silva out
78'GersonFoul
81'Gerson INFabrício Bruno out
83'Matheuzinho INRenato Kayzer out
83'Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira INbruno alex out
87'Felipe MoraisFoul
90+7'Matheus PereiraAssist: Keny arroyo

Lineups

Vitoria
4-2-3-1Coach: Jair Ventura
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Coach: Artur Jorge
Avg rating6.42
Avg rating6.97
Lucas Arcanjo5.91L. Arcanjo
Mateusinho6.198Mateusinho
Cacá6.725Cacá
Luan Cândido6.236L. Cândido
Jamerson6.483Jamerson
E. Martínez6.86E. Martínez
Caíque6.795Caíque
Erick5.533Erick
Matheuzinho7.110Matheuzinho
D. Tarzia6.412D. Tarzia
Rene7.591Rene
Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa7.681O. Eleodoro Rezende Costa
Fágner6.223Fágner
João Marcelo6.943J. Marcelo
Jonathan6.834Jonathan
G. Rojas6.627G. Rojas
Gerson6.98Gerson
Zé Lucas6.45Z. Lucas
K. Arroyo9.099K. Arroyo
Matheus Pereira8.210M. Pereira
Wesley Gassova6.320W. Gassova
Kaio Jorge7.719K. Jorge

Vitoria Substitutes

2E. Brítez45'for Matheusinho5.4
9Alex Bruno83'for Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira6.6
26Edenilson
23Fabrício
20Lucas Silva69'for Erick6.5
7Marinho
8T. Pochettino
16Rúben Ismael
79Renato Kayzer83'for Matheuzinho6.3
71Yuri Sena
88Zé Vitor45'for Caíque Gonçalves6.8
3Darlan Silva Dutra

Cruzeiro Substitutes

12William45'for Fagner6.5
94Wanderson
6M. Viña
25L. Villalba56'for Gabriel Rojas66'7.5
97L. Rodríguez
7Matheus Henrique56'for Zé Lucas6.3
16Lucas Silva
38Felipe Morais45'for Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira87'6.2
15Fabrício Bruno81'for Gerson6.4
67João Gabriel e Costa Cesco
9Bruno Rodrigues
1Cássio

Match Stats

VitoriaCruzeiro
43%Ball Possession57%
8Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards3
21Total Shots13
8Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal4
8Shots Inside Box8
13Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots4
10Fouls19
4Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves6
397Total Passes520
317Passes Accurate458
18Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

VitoriaVitoria
CruzeiroCruzeiro
1627Elo Rating 1798
1.50Attack 1.89
1.69Defense 1.95
17%Hit Rate 83%
12.7Shots per Game 16.6
5.1Shots on Target 7.4
3.1Corners per Game 6.0
2.0Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend57% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

VitoriaVitoria
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CruzeiroCruzeiro
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

VitoriaVitoria1Wins · 14%
Draws343%
CruzeiroCruzeiro3Wins · 43%
3.1Avg Goals
57%Both teams scored4 of 7
86%3+ goals6 of 7

Previous meetings

Serie A02/04/2026
CruzeiroVitoria
30
Serie A01/11/2025
CruzeiroVitoria
31
Serie A13/06/2025
VitoriaCruzeiro
00
Serie A20/08/2024
VitoriaCruzeiro
22
Serie A28/04/2024
CruzeiroVitoria
31
Serie B14/11/2021
VitoriaCruzeiro
30
Serie B12/08/2021
CruzeiroVitoria
22

Referee Profile

Matheus Delgado Candancan153 matches

4.59Cards per match
4.29Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
26.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Matheus Delgado Candancan4.59
Other referees5.09

4.59 cards a match, 0.50 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.09).

Cards come from 140 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo33227468:28+4073WWWWD
2PalmeirasPalmeiras332010356:22+3470DWWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro331761052:46+657WWWLW
4FluminenseFluminense33159952:42+1054WLLLW
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense33159950:40+1054LDLWD
6BahiaBahia331411848:42+653WDLWL
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG331481144:39+550LLWWD
8SantosSantos3312111049:47+247DDWLD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino331281342:38+444WLDWD
10Sao PauloSao Paulo331271439:39043LDWWL
11BotafogoBotafogo331091445:53-839LLWDL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama321081440:49-938LWLDW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15GremioGremio339101437:44-737WWLDD
16MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
17InternacionalInternacional338111437:42-535LWLDW
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo336111636:51-1529WLDDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc32491932:66-3421LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3368:2873
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3356:2270
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3352:4657
4FluminenseFluminense3352:4254
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3350:4054
6BahiaBahia3348:4253
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3344:3950
8SantosSantos3349:4747
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3342:3844
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3339:3943
11BotafogoBotafogo3345:5339
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3240:4938
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15GremioGremio3337:4437
16MirassolMirassol3237:4537
17InternacionalInternacional3337:4235
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3336:5129
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3232:6621
PromotionRelegation

About the Vitoria vs Cruzeiro forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Vitoria and Cruzeiro in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Cruzeiro are 3rd and Vitoria 14th, 19 points apart. League goal record so far: Vitoria 35-46, Cruzeiro 52-46. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Vitoria have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Cruzeiro have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.