HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction

Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica·Patrik Pavlešić, Croatia 16/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.36
SignalHIGHModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+5.7%
HNK Gorica Rest
8 days
HNK Hajduk Split Rest
3 days

HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split: the result in context

HNK Hajduk Split beat HNK Gorica 2-1 in the HNL on 16 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

HNK Hajduk Split have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game. HNK Gorica tend to win more corners, 6.3 a game to 3.7 for HNK Hajduk Split.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
19%4.40
X
25%3.60
2
56%1.73
Double Chance
1X
44%2.05
X2
81%1.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.73
No
43%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.22 + 1.43 = 2.65
Over 1.5
75%1.25
Over 2.5
51%1.80
Over 3.5
26%3.00
Under 1.5
25%3.70
Under 2.5
49%1.95
Under 3.5
74%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.9 + 5 = 8.9
Over 8.5
56%1.53
Over 9.5
46%1.93
Over 10.5
36%2.46
Under 8.5
44%2.29
Under 9.5
54%1.78
Under 10.5
64%1.48
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.2 = 4.6
Over 3.5
63%-
Over 4.5
39%-
Under 3.5
37%-
Under 4.5
61%-

Match Events

3'M. SegoAssist: R. Pukstas
46'K. Custovic INJ. Pranjic out
46'M. Acapandie INL. Hodak out
51'Michele ŠegoFoul
52'Ivan CvijanovićFoul
67'M. Soticek INA. Guram out
68'A. Pajaziti INA. del Moral out
71'Anđelo ŠutaloFoul
74'J. Frigan INS. Kucis out
74'P. Mijic INL. Vrzic out
78'B. Bogojevic(Penalty)
79'M. Sego INM. Livaja out
79'A. Sutalo INA. Sanyang out
87'M. LivajaAssist: A. del Moral
88'F. Braut INO. Bakic out
90'Alec Van HoorenbeeckArgument
90+3'D. Pavicic INB. Kardum out

Lineups

HNK Gorica
3-4-2-1Coach: Mario Carevic
HNK Hajduk Split
4-3-3Coach: Gonzalo Garcia
Avg rating6.72
Avg rating6.81
D. Matijas5.971D. Matijas
S. Peric6.045S. Peric
J. FilipovicC6.932J. Filipovic
I. Cvijanovic6.534I. Cvijanovic
F. Braut6.62F. Braut
J. Frigan6.966J. Frigan
A. Kavelj6.936A. Kavelj
B. Bogojevic6.925B. Bogojevic
K. Custovic6.94K. Custovic
D. Pavicic7.524D. Pavicic
P. Mijic6.29P. Mijic
T. Silic7.033T. Silic
M. Acapandie7.322M. Acapandie
D. Maresic7.615D. Maresic
A. Van Hoorenbeeck6.95A. Van Hoorenbeeck
S. Hrgovic6.632S. Hrgovic
R. Pukstas7.321R. Pukstas
N. Sigur6.68N. Sigur
A. Pajaziti6.74A. Pajaziti
A. Sutalo6.316A. Sutalo
M. SegoC7.211M. Sego
M. Soticek6.323M. Soticek

HNK Gorica Substitutes

30D. Zarkov
1R. Josipovic
28E. Kozina
7O. Bakic88'for F. Braut6.6
8J. Pranjic46'for K. Custovic7.2
14S. Kucis74'for J. Frigan6.9
67T. Prgomet
99M. Gashi
18B. Kardum90+3'for D. Pavicic
26K. Carole
20L. Vrzic74'for P. Mijic6.9

HNK Hajduk Split Substitutes

44D. Stipica
1I. Ivusic
14R. Raci
17D. Melnjak
38L. Hodak46'for M. Acapandie6.0
20A. del Moral68'for A. Pajaziti6.9
26A. Guram67'for M. Soticek6.2
19E. Brruti
3R. Gabric
10M. Livaja79'for M. Sego87'7.5
7A. Sanyang79'for A. Sutalo6.6
9D. de Almeida

Match Stats

HNK GoricaHNK Hajduk Split
39%Ball Possession61%
3Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards3
8Total Shots16
2Shots on Goal5
6Shots off Goal7
7Shots Inside Box11
1Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots4
10Fouls18
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
297Total Passes491
216Passes Accurate429
73%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

HNK GoricaHNK Gorica
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
1481Elo Rating 1756
0.87Attack 1.58
2.10Defense 2.15
17%Hit Rate 73%
11.4Shots per Game 13.8
4.0Shots on Target 5.5
6.3Corners per Game 3.7
1.6Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

HNK GoricaHNK Gorica
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

HNK GoricaHNK Gorica2Wins · 20%
Draws110%
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split7Wins · 70%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

HNL12/04/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Gorica
10
HNL31/01/2026
HNK GoricaHNK Hajduk Split
10
HNL24/10/2025
HNK GoricaHNK Hajduk Split
13
HNL10/08/2025
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Gorica
20
HNL11/05/2025
HNK GoricaHNK Hajduk Split
11
HNL09/03/2025
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Gorica
21
HNL07/12/2024
HNK GoricaHNK Hajduk Split
10
HNL21/09/2024
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Gorica
41
HNL19/05/2024
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Gorica
21
HNL09/03/2024
HNK GoricaHNK Hajduk Split
03

Recent Form

HNK GoricaHNK Gorica
3W0D7L
08/08/2026
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNK Gorica
31
L
01/08/2026
HNK GoricaNK Osijek
02
L
23/07/2026
HNK GoricaShakhtar Donetsk
02
L
19/07/2026
FC St. PauliHNK Gorica
21
L
16/07/2026
HNK GoricaEpitsentr Dunayivtsi
10
W
13/07/2026
HNK GoricaGöztepe
02
L
04/07/2026
HNK GoricaZorya Luhansk
21
W
23/05/2026
HNK RijekaHNK Gorica
20
L
16/05/2026
HNK GoricaNK Osijek
20
W
10/05/2026
NK Slaven BelupoHNK Gorica
10
L

Referee Profile

Patrik Pavlešić51 matches

4.67Cards per match
4.38Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
26.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Patrik Pavlešić4.67
Other referees4.22

4.67 cards a match, 0.45 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.22).

Cards come from 24 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

HNL 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1282226:11+1526WDWWL
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb1171325:14+1122LWWLW
3NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1254316:11+519DLLWD
4HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1153318:15+318DLWLW
5NK OsijekNK Osijek1152419:16+317LDLDW
6Istra 1961Istra 19611244421:18+316WDLWL
7NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1241714:25-1113LWLWD
8RudesRudes1241715:27-1213WWLWD
9NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1132613:17-411DWLLD
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica121477:20-137LDDLW
#TeamMPGPts
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1226:1126
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb1125:1422
3NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1216:1119
4HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1118:1518
5NK OsijekNK Osijek1119:1617
6Istra 1961Istra 19611221:1816
7NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1214:2513
8RudesRudes1215:2713
9NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1113:1711
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica127:207
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About the HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split forecast

The forecasts for this HNL match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

HNK Gorica and HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL table

The table shows a wide gap: HNK Hajduk Split are 1st in the HNL, while HNK Gorica sit 10th, 19 points behind. League goal record so far: HNK Gorica 7-20, HNK Hajduk Split 26-11. The full standings are on the HNL Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

HNK Hajduk Split have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.