HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 Prediction

HNK Rijeka
3-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Istra 1961
Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka·Igor Pajač, Croatia 23/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+13.7%
HNK Rijeka Rest
2 days
Istra 1961 Rest
8 days

HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961: the result in context

HNK Rijeka beat Istra 1961 3-2 in the HNL on 23 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.6 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.46
X
22%4.33
2
16%6.00
Double Chance
1X
84%1.10
X2
38%2.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.80
No
46%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.6 + 0.76 = 2.36
Over 1.5
69%1.20
Over 2.5
46%1.67
Over 3.5
23%2.62
Under 1.5
31%4.05
Under 2.5
54%2.10
Under 3.5
77%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 3.4 = 9.2
Over 8.5
59%1.49
Over 9.5
49%1.87
Over 10.5
38%2.33
Under 8.5
41%2.46
Under 9.5
51%1.87
Under 10.5
62%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.3 = 4.2
Over 3.5
53%1.44
Over 4.5
34%1.92
Under 3.5
47%2.42
Under 4.5
66%1.74

Match Events

18'M. NasraouiOG
42'Penalty confirmedToni Fruk
43'Jakov Puljić(Penalty missed)
43'J. Puljic
53'T. FrukAssist: T. Dantas
60'I. Cubelic INA. Gojak out
60'S. Vignato INB. Pavic out
61'A. Kadusic INR. Hrvatin out
61'D. Doumbia ING. Albarracin out
61'N. Skafar Zuzic INV. Rozic out
62'Hamza JaganjacFoul
71'H. Jaganjac
72'A. Husic INA. Barco out
72'J. Puljic IND. Adu Adjei out
72'A. Mauric IND. Ahmeti out
78'I. Saranic INM. Kablar out
84'N. Jankovic INM. Devetak out
90'E. FrederiksenAssist: D. Ahmeti

Lineups

HNK Rijeka
4-2-3-1Coach: Matjaz Kek
Istra 1961
4-2-3-1Coach: Javi Cabello
Avg rating6.66
Avg rating6.71
A. Todorovic6.299A. Todorovic
A. Orec6.622A. Orec
A. MajstorovicC6.945A. Majstorovic
A. Husic6.951A. Husic
J. Lasickas6.723J. Lasickas
I. Cubelic7.08I. Cubelic
T. Dantas7.726T. Dantas
S. Vignato6.619S. Vignato
T. Fruk7.310T. Fruk
N. Jankovic5.94N. Jankovic
J. Puljic6.321J. Puljic
F. Kolic8.01F. Kolic
A. KadusicC6.397A. Kadusic
M. Nasraoui5.33M. Nasraoui
R. Kumar6.54R. Kumar
N. Sepic6.213N. Sepic
D. Doumbia6.588D. Doumbia
A. Mauric6.58A. Mauric
E. Frederiksen7.522E. Frederiksen
I. Saranic6.580I. Saranic
N. Skafar Zuzic6.730N. Skafar Zuzic
H. Jaganjac7.594H. Jaganjac

HNK Rijeka Substitutes

13I. Vekic
1V. Kovac
34M. Devetak84'for N. Jankovic6.2
3M. Zivkovic
91N. Bodetic
14A. Gojak60'for I. Cubelic6.9
6B. Pavic60'for S. Vignato6.6
5A. Barco72'for A. Husic6.2
7Y. Kabadayi
11G. Rukavina
77A. Juric
18D. Adu Adjei72'for J. Puljic6.5

Istra 1961 Substitutes

40J. Paus-Kunst
16S. Miettinen
24F. Taraba
44R. Hrvatin61'for A. Kadusic7.0
20D. Ahmeti72'for A. Mauric7.2
25G. Albarracin61'for D. Doumbia6.9
34M. Kablar78'for I. Saranic6.5
9Isaac
27D. Celija
11S. Gorican
7V. Rozic61'for N. Skafar Zuzic6.3
39T. Brajkovic

Match Stats

HNK RijekaIstra 1961
59%Ball Possession41%
6Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards1
14Total Shots11
8Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots2
10Fouls11
1Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves6
620Total Passes427
537Passes Accurate358
87%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
Istra 1961Istra 1961
1681Elo Rating 1556
3.07Attack 1.89
1.72Defense 1.71
81%Hit Rate 54%
10.8Shots per Game 14.9
4.3Shots on Target 7.4
3.9Corners per Game 5.5
1.6Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+125 Elo
📈BTTS Trend10% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.1 vs 0.9 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Istra 1961Istra 1961
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka5Wins · 50%
Draws220%
Istra 1961Istra 19613Wins · 30%
1.6Avg Goals
10%Both teams scored1 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10

Previous meetings

HNL17/05/2026
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka
00
HNL15/03/2026
HNK RijekaIstra 1961
02
HNL20/01/2026
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka
12
HNL27/09/2025
HNK RijekaIstra 1961
00
HNL19/04/2025
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka
20
Cup02/04/2025
HNK RijekaIstra 1961
10
HNL09/02/2025
HNK RijekaIstra 1961
01
HNL03/11/2024
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka
01
HNL18/08/2024
HNK RijekaIstra 1961
40
HNL14/04/2024
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka
02

Recent Form

HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
7W1D2L
20/08/2026
FC MidtjyllandHNK Rijeka
20
L
16/08/2026
NK VarazdinHNK Rijeka
20
L
13/08/2026
IlvesHNK Rijeka
11
D
06/08/2026
HNK RijekaIlves
10
W
02/08/2026
HNK RijekaRudes
21
W
30/07/2026
Derry CityHNK Rijeka
01
W
23/07/2026
HNK RijekaDerry City
10
W
03/07/2026
RadomljeHNK Rijeka
02
W
30/06/2026
Brinje-GrosupljeHNK Rijeka
03
W
27/06/2026
BravoHNK Rijeka
12
W
Istra 1961Istra 1961
4W3D3L
15/08/2026
Istra 1961NK Slaven Belupo
30
W
09/08/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
22
D
01/08/2026
Istra 1961NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
23
L
25/07/2026
LecceIstra 1961
22
D
17/07/2026
Istra 1961Milton Keynes Dons
21
W
23/05/2026
NK VarazdinIstra 1961
20
L
17/05/2026
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka
00
D
10/05/2026
NK OsijekIstra 1961
01
W
04/05/2026
Istra 1961NK Slaven Belupo
31
W
27/04/2026
HNK GoricaIstra 1961
10
L

Referee Profile

Igor Pajač148 matches

4.42Cards per match
4.28Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Igor Pajač4.42
Other referees4.53

4.42 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.53).

Cards come from 113 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

HNL 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1172221:11+1023DWWLW
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb1071225:13+1222WWLWL
3NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1153315:10+518LLWDD
4NK OsijekNK Osijek1152419:16+317LDLDW
5HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1052317:14+317LWLWD
6Istra 1961Istra 19611134419:18+113DLWLW
7NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1141614:23-913WLWDL
8NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1132613:17-411DWLLD
9RudesRudes1131714:27-1310WLWDL
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica111467:15-87DDLWD
#TeamMPGPts
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1121:1123
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb1025:1322
3NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1115:1018
4NK OsijekNK Osijek1119:1617
5HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1017:1417
6Istra 1961Istra 19611119:1813
7NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1114:2313
8NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1113:1711
9RudesRudes1114:2710
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica117:157
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 forecast

The forecasts for this HNL match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961 in the HNL table

HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961 are close in the HNL table, 5th and 6th, with 4 points between them. League goal record so far: HNK Rijeka 17-14, Istra 1961 19-18. The full standings are on the HNL Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

HNK Rijeka have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.