Lech Poznan vs FC Thun Prediction
World · Play-offsCupKnockout
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.45
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+0.7%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.57
SignalGOODModel57%SurpriseHighGap+10.6%
Lech Poznan Rest
5 days
FC Thun Rest
4 days
Lech Poznan vs FC Thun: result, form and history
Lech Poznan beat FC Thun 7-0 in the UEFA Europa League on 20 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Lech Poznan had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for FC Thun.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
173%1.45
X12%4.55
215%5.85
Double Chance
1X85%1.13
X227%2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes49%1.64
No51%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.81 + 1.02 = 2.83
Over 1.577%1.15
Over 2.556%1.51
Over 3.532%2.30
Under 1.523%4.80
Under 2.544%2.39
Under 3.568%1.57
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 3.4 = 8.4
Over 8.533%1.39
Over 9.525%1.71
Over 10.520%2.11
Under 8.567%2.67
Under 9.575%2.01
Under 10.580%1.64
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.3 = 4.2
Over 3.539%1.72
Over 4.529%2.25
Under 3.561%2.02
Under 4.571%1.58
Match Events
10'P. Walemark
20'A. SayyadmaneshAssist: P. Rodriguez
25'P. WalemarkAssist: M. Gurgul
31'M. SkrzypczakAssist: A. Kozubal
37'P. Walemark IND. Hakans out
45'R. MurawskiAssist: P. Rodriguez
45+1'M. Gutbub INF. Dursun out
46'M. Heule INT. Strannegard out
46'N. Zoukit INF. Saiz out
47'D. HakansAssist: A. Sayyadmanesh
50'N. ReichmuthTripping
56'N. Reichmuth INN. Burgy out
64'P. Rodriguez INR. Gumny out
64'L. Palma ING. Berggren out
66'Goal Disallowed - offsideF. Dursun
70'T. StrannegardRoughing
79'R. GumnyAssist: M. Gurgul
80'A. Sayyadmanesh INW. Szymczak out
80'A. Kozubal INK. Delikat out
82'B. Labeau INL. Dahler out
87'R. MurawskiRoughing
Match Stats
Lech PoznanFC Thun 
56%Ball Possession44%
5Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards2
11Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal3
3Blocked Shots2
8Fouls16
1Offsides2
Team Comparison
Lech PoznanFC Thun1747Elo Rating 1541
3.01Attack 0.84
1.42Defense 1.50
54%Hit Rate 14%
15.8Shots per Game 11.2
5.7Shots on Target 3.6
4.8Corners per Game 3.5
1.5Cards per Game 2.6
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+205 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%
Game State Tendencies
Lech Poznan- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
FC Thun- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Recent Form
Lech Poznan8W1D1L
14/08/2026
KI KlaksvikLech Poznan
09/08/2026KI KlaksvikLech Poznan05
WLech Poznan
Piast Gliwice30
W06/08/2026Lech PoznanKI Klaksvik10
W01/08/2026
Wieczysta KrakówLech Poznan12
W29/07/2026Lech Poznan
Aarhus3043
L25/07/2026Lech Poznan
Cracovia Krakow00
D21/07/2026AarhusLech Poznan14
W16/07/2026Lech Poznan
Gornik Zabrze
Lech PoznanGornik Zabrze31
W11/07/2026Lech Poznan
Bohemians 1905
Lech PoznanBohemians 190540
W04/07/2026Lech Poznan
Podbrezová
Lech PoznanPodbrezová31
WFC Thun3W2D5L
16/08/2026
Saxon SportsFC Thun
Saxon SportsFC Thun06
W13/08/2026
Vikingur ReykjavikFC Thun
09/08/2026Vikingur ReykjavikFC Thun32
L
FC Basel 1893FC Thun42
L06/08/2026FC ThunVikingur Reykjavik30
W01/08/2026FC Thun
BSC Young Boys06
L28/07/2026
Dinamo ZagrebFC Thun3222
L25/07/2026
FC LuzernFC Thun13
W21/07/2026FC ThunDinamo Zagreb11
D11/07/2026FC Thun
Waldhof Mannheim
FC ThunWaldhof Mannheim12
L11/07/2026FC Thun
SV Elversberg
FC ThunSV Elversberg11
DReferee Profile
4.47Cards per match
4.30Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
26.1Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.47 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.41).
Cards come from 137 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsBracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Kairat Almaty
Mjallby AIF
Trabzonspor
Lillestrom
Ararat-Armenia
Kauno Žalgiris
St. Truiden
FK Crvena Zvezda
Plzen
OFIAarhus
Larne
Saburtalo
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia RrogozhinëGornik Zabrze
KuPS
Universitatea Craiova
Jagiellonia
RangersLech PoznanKI Klaksvik
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Omonia Nicosia
Red Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur Reykjavik
Heart Of Midlothian
Tromso
Hradec Králové
PAOK
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hammarby FF
Anderlecht
FC ST. Gallen
Benfica
Twente
Beşiktaş
FC Midtjylland
PafosKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLarneSaburtaloShamrock RoversEgnatia RrogozhinëGornik ZabrzeKuPSUniversitatea CraiovaJagielloniaRangersLech PoznanKI KlaksvikLincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur ReykjavikHeart Of MidlothianKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:8 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:3 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:6 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:9 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Europa League
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This match
More UEFA Europa League matches
About the Lech Poznan vs FC Thun forecast
As a knockout tie in the UEFA Europa League, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About UEFA Europa League
More UEFA Europa League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Europa League Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
Lech Poznan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Lech Poznan and FC Thun have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.