Lincoln vs Portsmouth Prediction

Lincoln
1-3
Finished
HT 1-2
Portsmouth
Sincil Bank, Lincoln·Tony Harrington, England 22/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.40
SignalGOODModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+2.8%
Lincoln Rest
6 days
Portsmouth Rest
6 days

Lincoln vs Portsmouth: the result in context

Portsmouth beat Lincoln 3-1 in the Championship on 22 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Lincoln had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Portsmouth.

Portsmouth have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 2.3 goals a game. Portsmouth tend to win more corners, 4.2 a game to 2.2 for Lincoln.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%2.44
X
26%3.30
2
23%2.80
Double Chance
1X
77%1.40
X2
48%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.73
No
40%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.69 + 1.15 = 2.84
Over 1.5
79%1.30
Over 2.5
54%1.95
Over 3.5
30%3.35
Under 1.5
21%3.30
Under 2.5
46%1.83
Under 3.5
70%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.6 = 9
Over 8.5
55%1.50
Over 9.5
46%1.82
Over 10.5
31%2.29
Under 8.5
45%2.40
Under 9.5
54%1.91
Under 10.5
69%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.5 = 4.3
Over 3.5
57%1.80
Over 4.5
35%2.52
Under 3.5
43%1.91
Under 4.5
65%1.40

Match Events

7'R. Kavuma McQueenAssist: A. Kamara
16'A. Segecic
32'R. Hackett-Fairchild(Penalty)
34'F. DraperFoul
55'T. Darikwa INA. Coubis out
55'R. R. SheinFoul
58'R. Kavuma McQueen INJ. Murphy out
58'R. R. Shein INE. Adams out
66'I. Varfolomeev INT. Bayliss out
66'D. Jefferies INR. Street out
68'T. BaylissFoul
69'E. Adams
71'T. HamerFoul
75'B. House INM. Melia out
75'F. Draper INT. Olaofe out
77'J. Murphy INMarezi out
86'A. Kamara INL. Brooke-Smith out
86'M. Pack INJ. Knight out

Lineups

Lincoln
4-2-3-1Coach: Tom Shaw
Portsmouth
4-2-3-1Coach: John Mousinho
Avg rating6.55
Avg rating7.00
George Wickens7.51G. Wickens
Tendayi DarikwaC6.32T. Darikwa
Tom Hamer6.522T. Hamer
Deji Elerewe6.025D. Elerewe
Adam Reach6.23A. Reach
Conor McGrandles6.914C. McGrandles
Ivan Varfolomeev6.224I. Varfolomeev
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild7.07R. Hackett-Fairchild
Ben House6.918B. House
Dom Jefferies6.316D. Jefferies
Freddie Draper5.934F. Draper
Nicolas Schmid7.31N. Schmid
Terry Devlin7.224T. Devlin
Benjamin Arthur6.92B. Arthur
Conor Shaughnessy7.26C. Shaughnessy
Zak Swanson6.322Z. Swanson
Marlon PackC6.97M. Pack
Rocco Robert Shein6.519R. Robert Shein
Abu Kamara7.911A. Kamara
Adrian Segečić7.510A. Segečić
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen7.725R. Kavuma-McQueen
Colby Bishop6.09C. Bishop

Lincoln Substitutes

4Andrei Coubiș55'for T. Darikwa6.9
8Tom Bayliss66'for I. Varfolomeev68'6.7
17Robert Street66'for D. Jefferies6.7
10Mason Melia75'for B. House6.5
19Tanto Olaofe75'for F. Draper6.3
46Joe Gauci
6Ryley Towler
26Yunus Konak
20Callum Elder

Portsmouth Substitutes

38Ebou Adams58'for R. R. Shein69'8.0
23Josh Murphy58'for R. Kavuma McQueen77'for Marezi6.9
29Marko Milovanović77'replaced by J. Murphy6.5
4Josh Knight86'for M. Pack6.6
28Luke Brooke-Smith86'for A. Kamara6.6
31Daniel Bielica
55Madiodio Dia
27Odin Bailey
8John Swift

Match Stats

LincolnPortsmouth
39%Ball Possession61%
8Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards1
15Total Shots13
4Shots on Goal7
7Shots off Goal2
11Shots Inside Box8
4Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots4
17Fouls15
9Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves3
220Total Passes370
144Passes Accurate272
65%Pass Accuracy74%

Team Comparison

LincolnLincoln
PortsmouthPortsmouth
1694Elo Rating 1624
1.68Attack 1.46
0.32Defense 2.03
27%Hit Rate 63%
12.5Shots per Game 11.7
3.6Shots on Target 2.6
2.2Corners per Game 4.2
2.6Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📈BTTS Trend38% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

LincolnLincoln
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
PortsmouthPortsmouth
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

LincolnLincoln1Wins · 13%
Draws225%
PortsmouthPortsmouth5Wins · 62%
2.3Avg Goals
38%Both teams scored3 of 8
50%3+ goals4 of 8

Previous meetings

League One27/04/2024
LincolnPortsmouth
02
League One23/09/2023
PortsmouthLincoln
21
League One18/02/2023
LincolnPortsmouth
00
League One06/08/2022
PortsmouthLincoln
00
League One15/04/2022
PortsmouthLincoln
32
League One23/11/2021
LincolnPortsmouth
03
League One26/01/2021
PortsmouthLincoln
01
League One03/11/2020
LincolnPortsmouth
13

Recent Form

LincolnLincoln
5W0D5L
15/08/2026
MiddlesbroughLincoln
21
L
08/08/2026
DerbyLincoln
12
W
01/08/2026
BarnsleyLincoln
30
L
01/08/2026
DoncasterLincoln
01
W
28/07/2026
GrimsbyLincoln
51
L
17/07/2026
LincolnLeyton Orient
02
L
11/07/2026
Boston UnitedLincoln
01
W
10/07/2026
Lincoln UnitedLincoln
21
L
02/05/2026
Port ValeLincoln
02
W
25/04/2026
LincolnWycombe
43
W
PortsmouthPortsmouth
2W4D4L
15/08/2026
PortsmouthQPR
13
L
08/08/2026
West HamPortsmouth
31
L
01/08/2026
SV Darmstadt 98Portsmouth
00
D
29/07/2026
FarnboroughPortsmouth
11
D
25/07/2026
WycombePortsmouth
31
L
18/07/2026
Bristol RoversPortsmouth
11
D
15/07/2026
Aldershot TownPortsmouth
20
L
14/07/2026
WokingPortsmouth
12
W
02/05/2026
PortsmouthBirmingham
11
D
25/04/2026
Stoke CityPortsmouth
13
W

Referee Profile

Tony Harrington147 matches

3.55Cards per match
3.44Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
22.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tony Harrington3.55
Other referees3.74

3.55 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.74).

Cards come from 141 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1384130:17+1328WWDWW
2SwanseaSwansea1382320:13+726WLLWW
3WolvesWolves1373323:16+724WWDWL
4West BromWest Brom1373319:14+524WDWWL
5SouthamptonSouthampton1383228:13+1523WWDWW
6BirminghamBirmingham1365223:13+1023WLWWW
7Stoke CityStoke City1372420:16+423WDWLW
8West HamWest Ham1364333:18+1522LLWWD
9QPRQPR1355321:16+520LWLWD
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1354417:15+219WDWLW
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1354416:15+119DWDWW
12MillwallMillwall1353523:21+218WLDLW
13BlackburnBlackburn1353519:20-118LWLWW
14Bristol CityBristol City1353515:17-218WDLLD
15NorwichNorwich1350823:24-115WWLLL
16LincolnLincoln1343614:23-915LWDLL
17CardiffCardiff1335519:20-114LWDWL
18WrexhamWrexham1335515:19-414LLWLD
19BoltonBolton1342718:26-814LLDWL
20CharltonCharlton1335511:21-1014LLLDD
21WatfordWatford1332812:23-1111LLWLL
22BurnleyBurnley1316617:25-89DLLDW
23DerbyDerby1314811:25-147LDLLD
24PrestonPreston13121010:27-175LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1330:1728
2SwanseaSwansea1320:1326
3WolvesWolves1323:1624
4West BromWest Brom1319:1424
5SouthamptonSouthampton1328:1323
6BirminghamBirmingham1323:1323
7Stoke CityStoke City1320:1623
8West HamWest Ham1333:1822
9QPRQPR1321:1620
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1317:1519
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1316:1519
12MillwallMillwall1323:2118
13BlackburnBlackburn1319:2018
14Bristol CityBristol City1315:1718
15NorwichNorwich1323:2415
16LincolnLincoln1314:2315
17CardiffCardiff1319:2014
18WrexhamWrexham1315:1914
19BoltonBolton1318:2614
20CharltonCharlton1311:2114
21WatfordWatford1312:2311
22BurnleyBurnley1317:259
23DerbyDerby1311:257
24PrestonPreston1310:275
PromotionRelegation

About the Lincoln vs Portsmouth forecast

The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lincoln and Portsmouth in the Championship table

In the Championship table, Portsmouth are 11th and Lincoln 16th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Lincoln 14-23, Portsmouth 16-15. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.