Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

Osasuna
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Rayo Vallecano
Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona·Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid 19/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
52%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams NOT to Score
1.98
SignalNEUTRALModel52%SurpriseMediumGap+5.6%
Osasuna Rest
2 days
Rayo Vallecano Rest
3 days

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: result, form and history

Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano drew 1-1 in the La Liga on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Osasuna have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game. Referee Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid averages 6.03 cards a game, 0.96 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
34%2.55
X
26%3.30
2
40%2.80
Double Chance
1X
61%1.40
X2
66%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.74
No
52%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.28 + 1.19 = 2.47
Over 1.5
73%1.30
Over 2.5
43%2.02
Over 3.5
19%3.40
Under 1.5
27%3.20
Under 2.5
57%1.82
Under 3.5
81%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.2 = 9.7
Over 8.5
61%1.45
Over 9.5
52%1.82
Over 10.5
38%2.28
Under 8.5
39%2.50
Under 9.5
48%1.92
Under 10.5
62%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.3 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%1.20
Over 4.5
39%1.40
Under 3.5
41%4.20
Under 4.5
61%2.84

Match Events

16'Ante Budimir
21'Asier OsambelaFoul
24'Pathé CissFoul
50'Sergio CamelloAssist: Adrià Pedrosa
56'Enrique Barja Alfonso INRaul Moro out
56'Diego Rico INAbel Bretones out
60'Óscar Valentín INPedro Díaz out
67'Jon MoncayolaFoul
69'Jon Moncayola INLucas Torró out
69'Rubén García INJonathan Dubasin out
71'Jorge De Frutos INGeorgiy Tsitaishvili out
71'Sergio Camello INAlexandre Zurawski out
73'Unai Santos INRaul García out
77'Sergio HerreraDissent
87'Álvaro García INIvan Balliu out
87'Unai López INGnangoro Bouare out
90+6'Alexandre ZurawskiDissent

Lineups

Osasuna
5-4-1Coach: Luis Miguel Ramis
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3Coach: Beñat San José
Avg rating6.52
Avg rating6.67
Aitor Fernández6.313A. Fernández
Íñigo Arguibide6.527Í. Arguibide
Asier Osambela6.029A. Osambela
Catena6.524Catena
U. Santos6.235U. Santos
Diego Rico6.615D. Rico
Rubén García6.614R. García
Moncayola6.07Moncayola
Iker Muñoz6.78I. Muñoz
Kike Barja6.411K. Barja
A. Budimir8.017A. Budimir
E. Audero6.925E. Audero
A. Rațiu6.52A. Rațiu
Mujaid Sadick6.715M. Sadick
F. Lejeune6.924F. Lejeune
Adrià Pedrosa7.017A. Pedrosa
Unai López6.68U. López
P. Ciss6.56P. Ciss
Óscar Valentín6.823Ó. Valentín
Jorge de Frutos6.719J. de Frutos
Sergio Camello8.010S. Camello
Álvaro García6.418Á. García

Osasuna Substitutes

30Asier Bonel
20R. Del Castillo
21Jonathan Dubasin69'for Rubén García6.4
26Mauro Echegoyen
31Rafa Fernández
9Raúl García73'for Unai Santos6.8
1Sergio Herrera77'
18Raul Moro56'for Enrique Barja Alfonso6.9
6Lucas Torró69'for Jon Moncayola6.3
48R. Yeboah
22F. Boyomo
23Abel Bretones56'for Diego Rico6.1

Rayo Vallecano Substitutes

1Dani Cárdenas
20I. Balliu87'for Álvaro García6.3
37Rayane Belid
36G. Bouare87'for Unai López6.3
4Pedro Díaz60'for Óscar Valentín6.6
22Pelayo Fernández
3M. Kumbulla
21Fran Pérez
14G. Tsitaishvili71'for Jorge De Frutos6.2
9Alemão71'for Sergio Camello90+6'6.4
26Marco de las Sías

Match Stats

OsasunaRayo Vallecano
37%Ball Possession63%
4Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards2
10Total Shots19
3Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal9
9Shots Inside Box6
1Shots Outside Box13
2Blocked Shots8
21Fouls13
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves2
269Total Passes474
188Passes Accurate395
12Free Kicks20

Team Comparison

OsasunaOsasuna
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
1686Elo Rating 1750
1.01Attack 0.91
0.76Defense 1.54
23%Hit Rate 14%
11.5Shots per Game 22.0
3.8Shots on Target 4.4
4.1Corners per Game 7.1
2.8Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

OsasunaOsasuna
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

OsasunaOsasuna6Wins · 60%
Draws110%
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano3Wins · 30%
2.6Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

La Liga24/01/2026
Rayo VallecanoOsasuna
13
La Liga14/09/2025
OsasunaRayo Vallecano
20
La Liga19/01/2025
OsasunaRayo Vallecano
11
La Liga16/09/2024
Rayo VallecanoOsasuna
31
La Liga20/04/2024
Rayo VallecanoOsasuna
21
La Liga15/12/2023
OsasunaRayo Vallecano
10
La Liga14/04/2023
Rayo VallecanoOsasuna
21
La Liga04/09/2022
OsasunaRayo Vallecano
21
La Liga12/02/2022
Rayo VallecanoOsasuna
03
La Liga02/10/2021
OsasunaRayo Vallecano
10

Recent Form

OsasunaOsasuna
4W1D5L
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
3W1D6L
15/09/2026
Rayo VallecanoEspanyol
21
W
12/09/2026
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
41
L
05/09/2026
Rayo VallecanoRacing Santander
32
W
31/08/2026
BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
52
L
20/08/2026
Rayo VallecanoAlaves
11
D
15/08/2026
SevillaRayo Vallecano
21
L
08/08/2026
IpswichRayo Vallecano
30
L
01/08/2026
CharleroiRayo Vallecano
23
W
26/07/2026
FeyenoordRayo Vallecano
21
L
17/07/2026
Heart Of MidlothianRayo Vallecano
21
L

Referee Profile

Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid107 matches

6.03Cards per match
5.74Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid6.03
Other referees5.07

6.03 cards a match, 0.96 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.07).

Cards come from 68 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona11100146:12+3430WLWWW
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1191122:8+1428WWWWW
3Real MadridReal Madrid1190228:10+1827WWWWL
4Real BetisReal Betis1172218:15+323WDLWD
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1061319:18+119WWWWL
6SevillaSevilla1152417:19-217LWLDL
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club933312:9+312LDDDD
8VillarrealVillarreal1133515:15012LWDLW
9Celta VigoCelta Vigo1126310:10012LDWDW
10AlavesAlaves1133515:17-212LDLLD
11Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1033415:20-512LDDDW
12GetafeGetafe113358:16-812WLDLW
13Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1025313:13011LDLDL
14EspanyolEspanyol1132613:14-111WLLDL
15OsasunaOsasuna1032510:20-1011LWLDL
16Racing SantanderRacing Santander1132615:29-1411LWLDL
17ElcheElche1024414:17-310WDDWL
18LevanteLevante1124516:21-510LLWDD
19ValenciaValencia101367:17-106LDDLW
20MalagaMalaga110568:21-135LDLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona1146:1230
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1122:828
3Real MadridReal Madrid1128:1027
4Real BetisReal Betis1118:1523
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1019:1819
6SevillaSevilla1117:1917
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club912:912
8VillarrealVillarreal1115:1512
9Celta VigoCelta Vigo1110:1012
10AlavesAlaves1115:1712
11Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1015:2012
12GetafeGetafe118:1612
13Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1013:1311
14EspanyolEspanyol1113:1411
15OsasunaOsasuna1010:2011
16Racing SantanderRacing Santander1115:2911
17ElcheElche1014:1710
18LevanteLevante1116:2110
19ValenciaValencia107:176
20MalagaMalaga118:215
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga table

In the La Liga table, Rayo Vallecano are 11th and Osasuna 15th, 1 point apart. League goal record so far: Osasuna 10-20, Rayo Vallecano 15-20. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.