PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction

PAOK
2-0
Finished
HT 2-0
Aris Thessalonikis
Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki 13/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.1 / 10
Value Analysis
54%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.95
SignalNEUTRALModel54%SurpriseHighGap+4.9%
PAOK Rest
6 days
Aris Thessalonikis Rest
3 days

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis: the result in context

PAOK beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 in the Super League 1 on 13 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.9 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.60
X
23%3.94
2
27%5.40
Double Chance
1X
73%1.13
X2
50%2.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.93
No
46%1.78
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.59 + 1.11 = 2.70
Over 1.5
78%1.29
Over 2.5
52%1.95
Over 3.5
31%3.40
Under 1.5
22%3.40
Under 2.5
48%1.82
Under 3.5
69%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 4.1 = 8.7
Over 8.5
33%1.90
Over 9.5
33%2.44
Over 10.5
12%3.28
Under 8.5
67%1.84
Under 9.5
67%1.49
Under 10.5
88%1.25
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.7 = 4.8
Over 3.5
70%1.12
Over 4.5
51%1.26
Under 3.5
30%5.70
Under 4.5
49%3.65

Match Events

3'Jonjoe KennyFoul
20'Christos ZafeirisFoul
25'Tino KadewereFoul
30'Penalty confirmedCherif Ndiaye
32'Cherif Ndiaye(Penalty)
42'Andrija Živković
45'Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru INManu García out
61'Tino Kadewere INLoren Moron out
64'Christos Zafeiris INKristijan Jakić out
73'Taison Barcellos Freda INMady Camara out
73'Dimitrios Pelkas INDimitrios Chatsidis out
77'Cherif NdiayeFoul
78'Noah Fadiga INJeremy Petris out
78'Giannis Gianniotas INChristian Kouamé out
85'Benjamin Garré INSebastián Palacios out
85'Cherif Ndiaye INAnestis Mythou out
85'Andrija Živković INTaha Ali out

Lineups

PAOK
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Lisci
Aris Thessalonikis
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Grigoriou
Avg rating6.65
Avg rating6.34
J. Pavlenka6.91J. Pavlenka
J. Kenny6.23J. Kenny
Diego Costa7.219D. Costa
G. Michailidis7.05G. Michailidis
A. Baba6.421A. Baba
C. Zafeiris6.320C. Zafeiris
O. Ugresić6.316O. Ugresić
A. Živković8.114A. Živković
D. Pelkas5.910D. Pelkas
Taison6.411Taison
C. Ndiaye7.027C. Ndiaye
Ricardo Velho7.133R. Velho
N. Fadiga6.127N. Fadiga
Fabiano6.54Fabiano
B. Šutalo6.744B. Šutalo
O. Richards6.53O. Richards
T. Dele-Bashiru6.620T. Dele-Bashiru
U. Račić6.110U. Račić
B. Garré6.47B. Garré
F. Jensen5.997F. Jensen
G. Gianniotas6.970G. Gianniotas
T. Kadewere5.79T. Kadewere

PAOK Substitutes

97D. Bataoulas
2M. Camara73'for Taison Barcellos Freda6.6
52D. Chatsidis73'for Dimitrios Pelkas6.6
18K. Jakić64'for Christos Zafeiris6.7
78G. Kosidis
56A. Mythou85'for Cherif Ndiaye6.5
7B. Santamaría
47S. Shoretire
32G. Taylor
25K. Thymianis
99A. Tsiftsis
22T. Ali85'for Andrija Živković6.5

Aris Thessalonikis Substitutes

8C. Kouamé78'for Giannis Gianniotas6.3
5Manu García45'for Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru6.3
41Konstantinos Charoupas
49O. Boussaid
24Apostolos barbopoulos
21L. Majkić
17Rafa Mir
80Loren Morón61'for Tino Kadewere6.0
34S. Palacios85'for Benjamin Garré6.2
2J. Pétris78'for Noah Fadiga6.3
45Matar Thiam
22M. Voriazidis

Match Stats

PAOKAris Thessalonikis
46%Ball Possession54%
3Corner Kicks7
3Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots15
5Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal4
8Shots Inside Box11
5Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots8
15Fouls15
3Goalkeeper Saves4
367Total Passes421
274Passes Accurate335
13Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

PAOKPAOK
Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis
1707Elo Rating 1651
2.02Attack 1.84
1.44Defense 1.71
61%Hit Rate 59%
20.4Shots per Game 16.7
5.4Shots on Target 4.5
6.4Corners per Game 5.1
2.3Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

PAOKPAOK
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

PAOKPAOK3Wins · 30%
Draws440%
Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis3Wins · 30%
1.9Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Super League 108/02/2026
Aris ThessalonikisPAOK
00
Super League 107/12/2025
PAOKAris Thessalonikis
31
Cup03/12/2025
Aris ThessalonikisPAOK
11
Super League 119/01/2025
Aris ThessalonikisPAOK
00
Super League 129/09/2024
PAOKAris Thessalonikis
01
Super League 119/05/2024
Aris ThessalonikisPAOK
12
Super League 110/03/2024
PAOKAris Thessalonikis
01
Super League 107/01/2024
Aris ThessalonikisPAOK
21
Super League 117/09/2023
PAOKAris Thessalonikis
00
Super League 130/04/2023
PAOKAris Thessalonikis
32
Thessaloniki derbyFull head-to-head record

Recent Form

PAOKPAOK
4W2D4L
06/09/2026
PanathinaikosPAOK
31
L
02/09/2026
PAOKOFI
00
D
30/08/2026
AtromitosPAOK
12
W
27/08/2026
BrannPAOK
32
L
23/08/2026
PAOKLevadiakos
40
W
20/08/2026
PAOKBrann
11
D
13/08/2026
AnderlechtPAOK
32
L
06/08/2026
PAOKAnderlecht
01
L
30/07/2026
PAOKDynamo Kyiv
20
W
23/07/2026
Dynamo KyivPAOK
23
W
Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis
7W1D2L
10/09/2026
Asteras TripolisAris Thessalonikis
11
D
05/09/2026
AEK Athens FCAris Thessalonikis
50
L
30/08/2026
Aris ThessalonikisOFI
21
W
22/08/2026
KalamataAris Thessalonikis
23
W
17/08/2026
Anagennisi KarditsasAris Thessalonikis
02
W
12/08/2026
NapoliAris Thessalonikis
62
L
30/07/2026
MonzaAris Thessalonikis
13
W
17/05/2026
Aris ThessalonikisLevadiakos
30
W
13/05/2026
Volos NFCAris Thessalonikis
12
W
10/05/2026
Aris ThessalonikisOFI
31
W

League Table

Super League 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PanathinaikosPanathinaikos980120:4+1624WWWLW
2Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus971115:4+1122WWWWW
3PAOKPAOK960318:12+618WLWLW
4AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC852121:5+1617LWWWD
5Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis951313:17-416LWWWD
6OFIOFI951314:12+216WWLLD
7KifisiaKifisia932412:14-211LWLWW
8KalamataKalamata932414:18-411DLWWL
9Iraklis 1908Iraklis 1908924310:12-210DLLWD
10PanetolikosPanetolikos93068:17-99LLLLL
11LevadiakosLevadiakos91353:11-86WDDLL
12Asteras TripolisAsteras Tripolis91358:17-96LDLWD
13AtromitosAtromitos81259:12-35WLLLD
14Volos NFCVolos NFC90366:16-100LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1PanathinaikosPanathinaikos920:424
2Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus915:422
3PAOKPAOK918:1218
4AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC821:517
5Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis913:1716
6OFIOFI914:1216
7KifisiaKifisia912:1411
8KalamataKalamata914:1811
9Iraklis 1908Iraklis 1908910:1210
10PanetolikosPanetolikos98:179
11LevadiakosLevadiakos93:116
12Asteras TripolisAsteras Tripolis98:176
13AtromitosAtromitos89:125
14Volos NFCVolos NFC96:160
Conference LeaguePromotionRelegation

About the PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis forecast

As a derby, this Super League 1 meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1 table

PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis are close in the Super League 1 table, 3rd and 5th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: PAOK 18-12, Aris Thessalonikis 13-17. The full standings are on the Super League 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Aris Thessalonikis have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.