Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction

AJ Kelly Park, Brisbane 05/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalSOLIDModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-5.0%
Peninsula Power Rest
6 days
Moreton City Excelsior Rest
7 days

Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior: result, form and history

Peninsula Power beat Moreton City Excelsior 3-2 in the Queensland NPL on 5 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Moreton City Excelsior had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Peninsula Power.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 7 previous meetings averaged 4.0 goals, and both sides scored in 5 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
48%2.10
X
22%3.68
2
30%2.65
Double Chance
1X
70%1.36
X2
52%1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%1.40
No
35%2.61
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.78 + 1.51 = 3.29
Over 1.5
88%1.09
Over 2.5
68%1.43
Over 3.5
42%2.09
Under 1.5
12%5.30
Under 2.5
32%2.59
Under 3.5
58%1.67
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

12'N. Joseph
19'J. Scott
20'N. Joseph
62'M. Walters(Penalty)
73'H. Miyazawa

Team Comparison

Peninsula PowerPeninsula Power
Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior
1552Elo Rating 1527
1.50Attack 0.87
0.88Defense 1.35
23%Hit Rate 17%

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.29 goals
📈BTTS Trend71% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Peninsula PowerPeninsula Power
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Peninsula PowerPeninsula Power1Wins · 14%
Draws343%
Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior3Wins · 43%
4.0Avg Goals
71%Both teams scored5 of 7
71%3+ goals5 of 7

Previous meetings

Queensland NPL18/07/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorPeninsula Power
22
Queensland NPL18/04/2026
Peninsula PowerMoreton City Excelsior
14
Queensland NPL17/06/2025
Peninsula PowerMoreton City Excelsior
02
Queensland NPL10/05/2025
Moreton City ExcelsiorPeninsula Power
33
Queensland NPL01/09/2024
Moreton City ExcelsiorPeninsula Power
43
Queensland NPL10/08/2024
Moreton City ExcelsiorPeninsula Power
13
Queensland NPL11/05/2024
Peninsula PowerMoreton City Excelsior
00

Recent Form

Peninsula PowerPeninsula Power
3W4D3L
30/08/2026
LionsPeninsula Power
41
L
14/08/2026
Peninsula PowerBrisbane City
22
D
08/08/2026
Gold Coast KnightsPeninsula Power
22
D
01/08/2026
LionsPeninsula Power
10
L
18/07/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorPeninsula Power
22
D
14/07/2026
APIA Leichhardt TigersPeninsula Power
21
L
10/07/2026
Peninsula PowerWDSC Wolves
00
D
04/07/2026
Eastern SuburbsPeninsula Power
13
W
27/06/2026
Peninsula PowerBrisbane Roar II
31
W
21/06/2026
OlympicPeninsula Power
13
W
Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior
5W2D3L
29/08/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorGold Coast Knights
2000
W
14/08/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorLions
02
L
08/08/2026
OlympicMoreton City Excelsior
12
W
02/08/2026
Brisbane Roar IIMoreton City Excelsior
20
L
18/07/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorPeninsula Power
22
D
11/07/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorMagic United
43
W
04/07/2026
Gold Coast KnightsMoreton City Excelsior
21
L
28/06/2026
Gold Coast UnitedMoreton City Excelsior
01
W
20/06/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorWDSC Wolves
22
D
16/06/2026
Rochedale RoversMoreton City Excelsior
25
W

League Table

Queensland NPL 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LionsLions22172357:22+3553WWWWW
2Peninsula PowerPeninsula Power22136349:27+2245DDLDD
3Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior22123751:35+1639LWLDW
4Gold Coast KnightsGold Coast Knights22115646:32+1438WDLDL
5Brisbane CityBrisbane City2297647:48-134DWLWD
6WDSC WolvesWDSC Wolves2296736:40-433LDWWD
7Eastern SuburbsEastern Suburbs22921134:35-129LDLLL
8OlympicOlympic22821239:43-426LLWWL
9Magic UnitedMagic United22711433:59-2622WWLWL
10Rochedale RoversRochedale Rovers22631334:52-1821WLWLL
11Gold Coast UnitedGold Coast United22621426:39-1320WLWDL
12Brisbane Roar IIBrisbane Roar II22511632:52-2016LLWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1LionsLions2257:2253
2Peninsula PowerPeninsula Power2249:2745
3Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior2251:3539
4Gold Coast KnightsGold Coast Knights2246:3238
5Brisbane CityBrisbane City2247:4834
6WDSC WolvesWDSC Wolves2236:4033
7Eastern SuburbsEastern Suburbs2234:3529
8OlympicOlympic2239:4326
9Magic UnitedMagic United2233:5922
10Rochedale RoversRochedale Rovers2234:5221
11Gold Coast UnitedGold Coast United2226:3920
12Brisbane Roar IIBrisbane Roar II2232:5216

About the Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior forecast

As a knockout tie in the Queensland NPL, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Peninsula Power and Moreton City Excelsior in the Queensland NPL table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Peninsula Power are 2nd in the Queensland NPL, 6 points ahead of Moreton City Excelsior in 3rd. League goal record so far: Peninsula Power 49-27, Moreton City Excelsior 51-35. The full standings are on the Queensland NPL Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.