Portugal vs Wales Prediction

Portugal
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Wales
Donatas Rumsas 24/09/2026
PortugalPortugal
1-0
Finished
WalesWales

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.17
SignalSTRONGModel74%SurpriseHighGap-4.7%
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 1.5
1.72
SignalGOODModel69%SurpriseHighGap+10.9%
Portugal Rest
79 days
Wales Rest
110 days

Portugal vs Wales: the result in context

Portugal beat Wales 1-0 in the UEFA Nations League on 24 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
80%1.17
X
12%7.50
2
8%17.00
Double Chance
1X
92%1.02
X2
20%5.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%2.07
No
56%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.44 + 0.68 = 3.12
Over 1.5
83%1.09
Over 2.5
64%1.40
Over 3.5
46%2.04
Under 1.5
17%5.85
Under 2.5
36%2.77
Under 3.5
54%1.79
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 3.4 = 8.4
Over 8.5
56%1.50
Over 9.5
48%1.90
Over 10.5
36%2.43
Under 8.5
44%2.37
Under 9.5
52%1.85
Under 10.5
64%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.1 + 1.6 = 2.8
Over 3.5
30%1.84
Over 4.5
15%2.81
Under 3.5
70%1.89
Under 4.5
85%1.41

Match Events

22'Joao FelixAssist: Nuno Mendes
59'Goal cancelledCristiano Ronaldo
63'David Brooks INDaniel James out
67'Rúben Neves INJoão Palhinha out
67'Cristiano Ronaldo INGonçalo Ramos out
71'Ben Cabango
71'Ben Cabango INChris Mepham out
77'Lewis Koumas INKieffer Moore out
77'Jordan James INSorba Thomas out
78'Nuno Mendes INNuno Tavares out
90'João Cancelo INDiogo Dalot out
90'Bruno Fernandes INJoão Neves out

Lineups

Portugal
4-1-3-2Coach: Jorge Jesus
Wales
4-3-3Coach: Craig Bellamy
Avg rating7.05
Avg rating6.43
Diogo Costa6.91D. Costa
João Cancelo6.920J. Cancelo
Rúben Dias7.13R. Dias
Renato Veiga7.213R. Veiga
Nuno Mendes7.619N. Mendes
Rúben Neves7.621R. Neves
Pedro Neto6.918P. Neto
Vitinha7.223Vitinha
Bruno Fernandes7.18B. Fernandes
João Félix8.211J. Félix
Cristiano Ronaldo6.47C. Ronaldo
D. Ward6.912D. Ward
N. Williams6.83N. Williams
B. Cabango6.26B. Cabango
B. Davies6.64B. Davies
J. Dasilva6.615J. Dasilva
E. Ampadu6.55E. Ampadu
J. Sheehan6.222J. Sheehan
J. James6.417J. James
D. Brooks6.17D. Brooks
L. Koumas6.09L. Koumas
B. Johnson6.011B. Johnson

Portugal Substitutes

14Francisco Conceição
16Trincão
5Nuno Tavares78'for Nuno Mendes6.4
22Samuel Soares
12Rui Silva
10Bernardo Silva
9Gonçalo Ramos67'for Cristiano Ronaldo6.8
4Tomás Araújo
2Diogo Dalot90'for João Cancelo
17Rafael Leão
15João Neves90'for Bruno Fernandes
6João Palhinha67'for Rúben Neves6.6

Wales Substitutes

19S. Thomas77'for Jordan James6.4
8W. Burns
23J. Colwill
14C. Roberts
16R. Norrington-Davies
13K. Moore77'for Lewis Koumas6.5
2C. Mepham71'for Ben Cabango6.3
21T. King
20D. James63'for David Brooks6.7
18M. Harris
10L. Cullen
1D. Cornell

Match Stats

PortugalWales
61%Ball Possession39%
10Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards1
23Total Shots5
5Shots on Goal1
11Shots off Goal4
17Shots Inside Box5
6Shots Outside Box0
7Blocked Shots0
12Fouls10
3Offsides3
0Goalkeeper Saves4
627Total Passes393
569Passes Accurate325
9Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

PortugalPortugal
WalesWales
1845Elo Rating 1606
2.01Attack 0.60
1.94Defense 1.81
86%Hit Rate 23%
17.3Shots per Game 9.8
6.1Shots on Target 2.8
5.7Corners per Game 3.9
2.5Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+239 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.12 goals
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

PortugalPortugal
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
WalesWales
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

PortugalPortugal1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
WalesWales0Wins · 0%
2.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Previous meetings

Euro Championship06/07/2016
PortugalWales
20

Recent Form

PortugalPortugal
5W3D2L
06/07/2026
PortugalSpain
01
L
03/07/2026
PortugalCroatia
21
W
28/06/2026
ColombiaPortugal
00
D
23/06/2026
PortugalUzbekistan
50
W
17/06/2026
PortugalCongo DR
11
D
10/06/2026
PortugalNigeria
21
W
06/06/2026
PortugalChile
21
W
16/11/2025
PortugalArmenia
91
W
13/11/2025
Rep. Of IrelandPortugal
20
L
14/10/2025
PortugalHungary
22
D
WalesWales
4W2D4L
06/06/2026
RomaniaWales
21
L
02/06/2026
WalesGhana
11
D
26/03/2026
WalesBosnia & Herzegovina
2141
L
18/11/2025
WalesFYR Macedonia
71
W
15/11/2025
LiechtensteinWales
01
W
13/10/2025
WalesBelgium
24
L
04/09/2025
KazakhstanWales
01
W
09/06/2025
BelgiumWales
43
L
06/06/2025
WalesLiechtenstein
30
W
25/03/2025
FYR MacedoniaWales
11
D

Referee Profile

Donatas Rumsas192 matches

4.28Cards per match
4.06Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
24.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Donatas Rumsas4.28
Other referees4.33

4.28 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.33).

Cards come from 67 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PortugalPortugal44009:4+512WWWW
2DenmarkDenmark42027:706WLWL
3WalesWales41032:5-33LWLL
4NorwayNorway41036:8-23LLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1PortugalPortugal49:412
2DenmarkDenmark47:76
3WalesWales42:53
4NorwayNorway46:83

About the Portugal vs Wales forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Portugal and Wales in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Portugal are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 9 points ahead of Wales in 3rd. League goal record so far: Portugal 9-4, Wales 2-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Portugal have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Portugal and Wales have met only 1 time recently, with 2.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.