Rochdale vs Swindon Town Prediction

Rochdale
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Swindon Town
Spotland, Rochdale 03/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.35
SignalSOLIDModel43%SurpriseMediumGap-5.9%
Value Analysis
58%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.62
SignalSOLIDModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+3.8%
Rochdale Rest
7 days
Swindon Town Rest
7 days

Rochdale vs Swindon Town: the result in context

Rochdale beat Swindon Town 1-0 in the League Two on 3 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Rochdale had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Swindon Town.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.7 a game across 6 meetings, with both teams scoring in 4.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.19
X
26%3.60
2
31%2.92
Double Chance
1X
69%1.35
X2
57%1.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.51
No
39%2.37
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.6 + 1.35 = 2.95
Over 1.5
79%1.17
Over 2.5
58%1.62
Over 3.5
36%2.50
Under 1.5
21%4.50
Under 2.5
42%2.24
Under 3.5
64%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.6 = 10.2
Over 8.5
70%1.43
Over 9.5
58%1.76
Over 10.5
47%2.20
Under 8.5
30%2.54
Under 9.5
42%1.97
Under 10.5
53%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.1 = 3.7
Over 3.5
51%-
Over 4.5
31%-
Under 3.5
49%-
Under 4.5
69%-

Match Events

23'Jonny Smith INLuke Hannant out
69'Tom Nichols INOllie Clarke out
72'Luke Hannant INCian Hayes out
73'Edward Francis INEmmanuel Dieseruvwe out
81'Kaelan MajekodunmiFoul
83'Aaron Drinan INJoseph Hungbo out
85'Kaelan Majekodunmi
88'Cian HayesAssist: Aden Flint
90+2'Jack Thomson INLouis Millard out
90+2'Billy Kirkman INDaniel Butterworth out

Lineups

Rochdale
4-2-3-1Coach: Ian Watson
Swindon Town
4-4-2Coach: Ian Holloway
Avg rating6.89
Avg rating6.28
Nils Ramming6.81N. Ramming
S. Sherring6.926S. Sherring
A. Flint7.744A. Flint
Kaiden Wilson6.73K. Wilson
C. Tasker7.12C. Tasker
H. Gilmour6.68H. Gilmour
E. Francis7.114E. Francis
J. Smith6.418J. Smith
B. Adeeko6.517B. Adeeko
G. Middleton7.245G. Middleton
D. Brown6.839D. Brown
C. Ripley7.01C. Ripley
J. Ball6.06J. Ball
S. Negru6.45S. Negru
K. Majekodunmi5.521K. Majekodunmi
B. Kirkman6.134B. Kirkman
T. Nichols6.57T. Nichols
J. Thomson6.525J. Thomson
A. Munda6.627A. Munda
D. Butler6.726D. Butler
A. Drinan5.923A. Drinan
A. Hackford5.929A. Hackford

Rochdale Substitutes

33S. Beckwith
9E. Dieseruvwe73'for Edward Francis6.7
19L. Hannant23'for Jonny Smith72'for Cian Hayes6.4
7C. Hayes72'replaced by Luke Hannant88'7.5
40I. Henderson
11Z. Silcott-Duberry
20Sam William John Waller

Swindon Town Substitutes

14D. Butterworth90+2'for Billy Kirkman6.2
8O. Clarke69'for Tom Nichols6.3
18J. Debayo
15J. Hungbo83'for Aaron Drinan6.3
22J. Pearman
12Lewis Moore Ward
39L. Millard90+2'for Jack Thomson6.2

Match Stats

RochdaleSwindon Town
60%Ball Possession40%
11Corner Kicks5
0Red Cards1
15Total Shots12
5Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal5
12Shots Inside Box9
3Shots Outside Box3
5Blocked Shots5
7Fouls18
4Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves4
468Total Passes307
385Passes Accurate236
18Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

RochdaleRochdale
Swindon TownSwindon Town
1520Elo Rating 1502
1.01Attack 0.88
0.00Defense 2.27
0%Hit Rate 23%
9.5Shots per Game 11.9
2.3Shots on Target 3.4
4.8Corners per Game 3.7
1.3Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.96 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

RochdaleRochdale
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
Swindon TownSwindon Town
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

RochdaleRochdale1Wins · 17%
Draws350%
Swindon TownSwindon Town2Wins · 33%
3.7Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored4 of 6
83%3+ goals5 of 6

Previous meetings

League Two18/03/2023
RochdaleSwindon Town
44
League Two20/08/2022
Swindon TownRochdale
30
League Two02/04/2022
RochdaleSwindon Town
00
League Two16/10/2021
Swindon TownRochdale
22
League One13/04/2021
RochdaleSwindon Town
21
League One12/09/2020
Swindon TownRochdale
31

Recent Form

RochdaleRochdale
3W1D6L
26/09/2026
Fleetwood TownRochdale
12
W
22/09/2026
RochdaleLiverpool U21
6373
L
19/09/2026
RochdaleOldham
20
W
12/09/2026
WalsallRochdale
00
D
05/09/2026
RochdaleGillingham
14
L
01/09/2026
RochdaleShrewsbury
30
W
29/08/2026
ColchesterRochdale
10
L
22/08/2026
RochdaleCrawley Town
12
L
15/08/2026
Newport CountyRochdale
30
L
08/08/2026
BradfordRochdale
20
L
Swindon TownSwindon Town
3W2D5L
26/09/2026
Swindon TownAccrington ST
11
D
22/09/2026
Swindon TownNewport County
02
L
19/09/2026
Salford CitySwindon Town
10
L
15/09/2026
Swindon TownCrystal Palace U21
12
L
12/09/2026
YorkSwindon Town
40
L
05/09/2026
Swindon TownColchester
31
W
01/09/2026
Swindon TownPort Vale
31
W
29/08/2026
OldhamSwindon Town
30
L
22/08/2026
Swindon TownCheltenham
21
W
15/08/2026
NorthamptonSwindon Town
00
D

League Table

League Two 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Salford CitySalford City14101325:15+1031WWWWW
2BarnetBarnet1375128:18+1026DWDLW
3WalsallWalsall1357121:12+922WLWDD
4CreweCrewe1457217:17022DLLWW
5CheltenhamCheltenham1463523:25-221LWWLL
6GrimsbyGrimsby1455424:18+620WWDLL
7YorkYork1455424:21+320LLWDD
8GillinghamGillingham1455420:19+120WLDLW
9Accrington STAccrington ST1447323:17+619DWDWD
10ChesterfieldChesterfield1454524:21+319LWDLD
11TranmereTranmere1447319:17+219WDWLD
12Exeter CityExeter City1454511:9+219LWWDW
13Swindon TownSwindon Town1454515:17-219WDWDL
14Newport CountyNewport County1446420:17+318WLDDW
15ShrewsburyShrewsbury1453617:22-518LDWWL
16Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1445518:18017WLLWD
17Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1451817:23-616LDLLL
18Port ValePort Vale1243510:14-415WLDWW
19RochdaleRochdale1443717:26-915LLDLD
20NorthamptonNorthampton123549:9014DWLWD
21OldhamOldham1333714:19-512LDLWD
22RotherhamRotherham1426618:25-712LDDLL
23ColchesterColchester1326512:19-712LLDDL
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1223713:21-89WDLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Salford CitySalford City1425:1531
2BarnetBarnet1328:1826
3WalsallWalsall1321:1222
4CreweCrewe1417:1722
5CheltenhamCheltenham1423:2521
6GrimsbyGrimsby1424:1820
7YorkYork1424:2120
8GillinghamGillingham1420:1920
9Accrington STAccrington ST1423:1719
10ChesterfieldChesterfield1424:2119
11TranmereTranmere1419:1719
12Exeter CityExeter City1411:919
13Swindon TownSwindon Town1415:1719
14Newport CountyNewport County1420:1718
15ShrewsburyShrewsbury1417:2218
16Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1418:1817
17Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1417:2316
18Port ValePort Vale1210:1415
19RochdaleRochdale1417:2615
20NorthamptonNorthampton129:914
21OldhamOldham1314:1912
22RotherhamRotherham1418:2512
23ColchesterColchester1312:1912
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1213:219
PromotionRelegation

About the Rochdale vs Swindon Town forecast

The forecasts for this League Two match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Rochdale and Swindon Town in the League Two table

In the League Two table, Swindon Town are 13th and Rochdale 19th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Rochdale 17-26, Swindon Town 15-17. The full standings are on the League Two Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.