Southampton vs QPR Prediction

Southampton
4-1
Finished
HT 1-0
QPR
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton·Tim Robinson 31/10/2026
SouthamptonSouthampton
4-1
Finished
QPRQPR

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.18
SignalSTRONGModel56%SurpriseMediumGap-4.1%
Southampton Rest
7 days
QPR Rest
7 days

Southampton vs QPR: the result in context

Southampton beat QPR 4-1 in the Championship on 31 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Southampton have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.91
X
23%3.77
2
24%3.63
Double Chance
1X
76%1.26
X2
48%1.88
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.50
No
42%2.42
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.07 + 0.77 = 2.84
Over 1.5
80%1.18
Over 2.5
58%1.57
Over 3.5
37%2.42
Under 1.5
20%4.75
Under 2.5
42%2.30
Under 3.5
63%1.53
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.8 + 4.2 = 11
Over 8.5
75%1.34
Over 9.5
64%1.62
Over 10.5
53%2.02
Under 8.5
25%2.88
Under 9.5
36%2.16
Under 10.5
47%1.72
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.5 = 4.3
Over 3.5
62%1.48
Over 4.5
43%1.92
Under 3.5
38%2.57
Under 4.5
57%1.80

Match Events

11'Kuryu Matsuki
55'Cameron BraggAssist: Ryan Manning
59'Harvey Vale INKoki Saito out
59'Kwame Poku INKaramoko Dembélé out
66'Keven SchlotterbeckAssist: Ryan Manning
68'Richard KoneAssist: Karamoko Dembélé
72'Jonathan VaraneFoul
75'James Ward-Prowse INFlynn Downes out
76'Boy Kemper INDennis Cirkin out
76'Paul Smyth INAlfie Lloyd out
83'Kealey AdamsonFoul
86'Kuryu Matsuki INSamuel Edozie out
86'Jimmy DunneFoul
87'Lewis Dobbin INDivin Mubama out
87'Glen Kamara INIlias Chair out
90+2'Cameron Bragg INBarnaby Williams out
90+2'Ryan Manning INWelington out
90+5'Welington

Lineups

Southampton
4-2-3-1Coach: Tonda Eckert
QPR
4-4-2Coach: Julien Stéphan
Avg rating7.00
Avg rating6.29
Daniel Peretz6.51D. Peretz
J. Bree6.514J. Bree
J. Stephens6.95J. Stephens
K. Schlotterbeck8.413K. Schlotterbeck
R. Manning8.23R. Manning
Cameron Bragg8.226C. Bragg
J. Ward-Prowse6.930J. Ward-Prowse
K. Matsuki7.527K. Matsuki
F. Azaz6.310F. Azaz
Léo Scienza7.07L. Scienza
L. Dobbin6.411L. Dobbin
P. Charles6.61P. Charles
K. Adamson6.02K. Adamson
J. Dunne6.13J. Dunne
R. Edwards6.35R. Edwards
B. Kemper6.112B. Kemper
K. Poku6.217K. Poku
J. Varane6.340J. Varane
G. Kamara6.418G. Kamara
H. Vale5.720H. Vale
P. Smyth6.511P. Smyth
R. Kone7.822R. Kone

Southampton Substitutes

4F. Downes75'for James Ward-Prowse6.4
23S. Edozie86'for Kuryu Matsuki6.2
18T. Fellows
25G. Long
28D. Mubama87'for Lewis Dobbin6.7
34Welington90+2'for Ryan Manning90+5'
53Barnaby Williams90+2'for Cameron Bragg
15N. Wood-Gordon
6Z. Abbott

QPR Substitutes

19D. Cirkin76'for Boy Kemper5.9
6J. Clarke-Salter
7K. Dembélé59'for Kwame Poku5.9
26Rayan Jawad Kolli
15A. Lloyd76'for Paul Smyth6.7
14K. Saito59'for Harvey Vale6.2
13C. Ward
10I. Chair87'for Glen Kamara5.8
23I. Alemayehu

Match Stats

SouthamptonQPR
54%Ball Possession46%
9Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards3
19Total Shots12
9Shots on Goal2
4Shots off Goal3
12Shots Inside Box9
7Shots Outside Box3
6Blocked Shots7
7Fouls15
5Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
489Total Passes417
425Passes Accurate362
15Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

SouthamptonSouthampton
QPRQPR
1794Elo Rating 1647
1.31Attack 2.57
2.18Defense 1.67
63%Hit Rate 46%
14.1Shots per Game 13.5
4.6Shots on Target 5.1
4.1Corners per Game 4.3
2.6Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+147 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

SouthamptonSouthampton
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.3 in second half)
QPRQPR
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.8 vs 0.7 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

SouthamptonSouthampton4Wins · 100%
Draws00%
QPRQPR0Wins · 0%
3.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
75%3+ goals3 of 4

Previous meetings

Championship24/02/2026
SouthamptonQPR
50
Championship05/11/2025
QPRSouthampton
12
Championship23/12/2023
QPRSouthampton
01
Championship26/08/2023
SouthamptonQPR
21

Recent Form

Referee Profile

Tim Robinson220 matches

4.14Cards per match
4.01Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tim Robinson4.14
Other referees3.78

4.14 cards a match, 0.36 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.78).

Cards come from 201 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1384130:17+1328WWDWW
2SwanseaSwansea1382320:13+726WLLWW
3WolvesWolves1373323:16+724WWDWL
4West BromWest Brom1373319:14+524WDWWL
5SouthamptonSouthampton1383228:13+1523WWDWW
6BirminghamBirmingham1365223:13+1023WLWWW
7Stoke CityStoke City1372420:16+423WDWLW
8West HamWest Ham1364333:18+1522LLWWD
9QPRQPR1355321:16+520LWLWD
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1354417:15+219WDWLW
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1354416:15+119DWDWW
12MillwallMillwall1353523:21+218WLDLW
13BlackburnBlackburn1353519:20-118LWLWW
14Bristol CityBristol City1353515:17-218WDLLD
15NorwichNorwich1350823:24-115WWLLL
16LincolnLincoln1343614:23-915LWDLL
17CardiffCardiff1335519:20-114LWDWL
18WrexhamWrexham1335515:19-414LLWLD
19BoltonBolton1342718:26-814LLDWL
20CharltonCharlton1335511:21-1014LLLDD
21WatfordWatford1332812:23-1111LLWLL
22BurnleyBurnley1316617:25-89DLLDW
23DerbyDerby1314811:25-147LDLLD
24PrestonPreston13121010:27-175LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1330:1728
2SwanseaSwansea1320:1326
3WolvesWolves1323:1624
4West BromWest Brom1319:1424
5SouthamptonSouthampton1328:1323
6BirminghamBirmingham1323:1323
7Stoke CityStoke City1320:1623
8West HamWest Ham1333:1822
9QPRQPR1321:1620
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1317:1519
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1316:1519
12MillwallMillwall1323:2118
13BlackburnBlackburn1319:2018
14Bristol CityBristol City1315:1718
15NorwichNorwich1323:2415
16LincolnLincoln1314:2315
17CardiffCardiff1319:2014
18WrexhamWrexham1315:1914
19BoltonBolton1318:2614
20CharltonCharlton1311:2114
21WatfordWatford1312:2311
22BurnleyBurnley1317:259
23DerbyDerby1311:257
24PrestonPreston1310:275
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About the Southampton vs QPR forecast

The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Southampton and QPR in the Championship table

In the Championship table, Southampton are 5th and QPR 9th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Southampton 28-13, QPR 21-16. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

QPR have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.