Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction

First LeagueBulgaria Bulgaria · Regular Season - 3
Spartak Varna
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Stadion Spartak, Varna·Nikola Popov, Bulgaria 03/08/2026
Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna
1-0
Finished
Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.53
SignalGOODModel35%SurpriseHighGap+6.7%
Spartak Varna Rest
8 days
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Rest
8 days

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: result, form and history

Spartak Varna beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 in the First League on 3 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Spartak Varna tend to win more corners, 4.6 a game to 1.8 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.98
X
30%3.20
2
35%2.34
Double Chance
1X
65%1.53
X2
65%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.73
No
49%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.26 + 1.24 = 2.50
Over 1.5
68%1.30
Over 2.5
49%1.96
Over 3.5
27%3.40
Under 1.5
32%3.20
Under 2.5
51%1.76
Under 3.5
73%1.28
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

8'D. Valverde
31'I. Ivanov
50'D. Yordanov
55'P. Umarbaev
56'J. Lamy INC. Longville out
56'I. Ivanov INM. Trdan out
57'A. Ivanov INB. Hanne out
57'D. Yordanov INS. Major out
57'G. Trifonov INT. Chunchukov out
61'A. Chindris
62'C. Longville
65'A. Chindris INM. Petrovic out
65'S. Idriz INA. Velev out
74'P. Umarbaev INA. Aleksandrov out
84'T. Silva INR. Sousa out
86'A. Granchov
90'P. Iliev
90+4'Jota Lopes INV. Oliveira out
90+5'S. Major
90+6'V. Oliveira
90+6'E. Ali

Lineups

Spartak Varna
4-2-3-1Coach: Yasen Petrov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4-2-3-1Coach: Dusan Kosic
Plamen Iliev23P. Iliev
David Valverde Juan76D. Valverde Juan
Angel Granchov44A. Granchov
Joey Tshitoku45J. Tshitoku
Boris Ivanov4B. Ivanov
Damian Yordanov8D. Yordanov
Tsvetoslav Marinov17T. Marinov
Anton Ivanov77A. Ivanov
Tomás Silva82T. Silva
Jota Lopes10J. Lopes
Georgi Trifonov99G. Trifonov
Bojan Milosavljević1B. Milosavljević
Adrián Cova2A. Cova
Andrei Chindriş4A. Chindriş
Lucas Ryan13L. Ryan
Todor Pavlov5T. Pavlov
Efe Ali12E. Ali
Ivaylo Ivanov22I. Ivanov
Sevi Idriz7S. Idriz
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev39P. Umarbaev
Cătălin Itu94C. Itu
Julien Lamy99J. Lamy

Spartak Varna Substitutes

19Sámuel Major57'for D. Yordanov90+5'
9Tsvetelin Chunchukov57'for G. Trifonov
11Boubacar Hanne57'for A. Ivanov
6Ricardo Sousa84'for T. Silva
72Vasco Oliveira90+4'for Jota Lopes90+6'
1Pedro Victor
22Jhonatan Cuero
7Buá
80Ángel Gomes Arevalo

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Substitutes

6Miha Trdan56'for I. Ivanov
29Christ Longville56'for J. Lamy62'
44Milan Petrovic
9Axel Velev65'for S. Idriz
40Petar Zovko
3Dalil Ali
26Denis Kirashki
30Aleksandar Aleksandrov74'for P. Umarbaev
31Yoan Dzhelepov

Team Comparison

Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna
Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv
1451Elo Rating 1505
1.21Attack 0.93
0.39Defense 2.69
36%Hit Rate 42%
10.9Shots per Game 9.2
3.4Shots on Target 1.8
4.6Corners per Game 1.8
1.8Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna2Wins · 33%
Draws117%
Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv3Wins · 50%
2.5Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored4 of 6
50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

First League21/02/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivSpartak Varna
11
First League30/08/2025
Spartak VarnaLokomotiv Plovdiv
12
First League07/04/2025
Lokomotiv PlovdivSpartak Varna
12
First League23/10/2024
Spartak VarnaLokomotiv Plovdiv
10
First League28/04/2023
Lokomotiv PlovdivSpartak Varna
31
First League10/10/2022
Spartak VarnaLokomotiv Plovdiv
02

Recent Form

Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna
5W3D2L
26/07/2026
Cherno More VarnaSpartak Varna
03
W17/07/2026
Spartak VarnaCSKA 1948
22
D
11/07/2026
Spartak VarnaDobrudzha
73
W
08/07/2026
Spartak VarnaNesebar
11
D
04/07/2026
Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
10
L
27/06/2026
Spartak VarnaDunav Ruse
00
D
22/05/2026
Spartak VarnaLokomotiv Sofia
30
W
18/05/2026
MontanaSpartak Varna
02
W
14/05/2026
Septemvri SofiaSpartak Varna
10
L
10/05/2026
Spartak VarnaSlavia Sofia
21
W
Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv
5W0D5L
26/07/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivSeptemvri Sofia
21
W
18/07/2026
LudogoretsLokomotiv Plovdiv
10
L
08/07/2026
Rilski SportistLokomotiv Plovdiv
02
W
04/07/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivArda Kardzhali
20
W
29/05/2026
LudogoretsLokomotiv Plovdiv
3010
L
25/05/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivBotev Plovdiv
21
W
20/05/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivCSKA Sofia
3141
L
16/05/2026
Arda KardzhaliLokomotiv Plovdiv
40
L
12/05/2026
Cherno More VarnaLokomotiv Plovdiv
20
L
08/05/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivArda Kardzhali
20
W

Referee Profile

Nikola Popov130 matches

4.94Cards per match
4.71Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
27.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Nikola Popov4.94
Other referees5.19

4.94 cards a match, 0.25 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.19).

Cards come from 87 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

First League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Levski SofiaLevski Sofia12102025:5+2032WDWDW
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1394029:9+2031DWWDW
3LudogoretsLudogorets1292124:9+1529WLWWW
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481391331:14+1728WWLWW
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1371522:20+222WLWWW
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1363418:19-121WDLDL
7Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia132749:9013DDLLD
8Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1334612:23-1113LLWLD
9Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1333714:22-812WWLDD
10Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1332815:22-711LWWDL
11Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1324710:22-1210LDLDD
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1316615:25-109LDDWL
13Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv132386:17-119LDDDL
14Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1322911:25-148LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Levski SofiaLevski Sofia1225:532
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1329:931
3LudogoretsLudogorets1224:929
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481331:1428
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1322:2022
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1318:1921
7Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia139:913
8Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1312:2313
9Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1314:2212
10Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1315:2211
11Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1310:2210
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1315:259
13Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv136:179
14Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1311:258
Conference LeaguePromotionRelegation

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About the Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the First League table

In the First League table, Spartak Varna are 8th and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 13th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Spartak Varna 12-23, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 6-17. The full standings are on the First League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.