St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

CITYPARK, St. Louis·C. Penso 02/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.30
SignalHIGHModel52%SurpriseMediumGap-0.5%
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.78
SignalSOLIDModel50%SurpriseMediumGap+10.9%
St. Louis City Rest
7 days
Real Salt Lake Rest
6 days

St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake: the result in context

St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake drew 1-1 in the Major League Soccer on 2 Aug 2026. St. Louis City had gone in with the better form, having won 5 of their previous five against 2 for Real Salt Lake.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.8 a game across 6 meetings, with both teams scoring in 5. Referee C. Penso averages 4.88 cards a game, 0.54 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%2.00
X
26%3.80
2
24%3.38
Double Chance
1X
76%1.30
X2
50%1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
70%1.44
No
30%2.54
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.6 + 1.25 = 2.85
Over 1.5
81%1.14
Over 2.5
63%1.50
Over 3.5
37%2.25
Under 1.5
19%5.25
Under 2.5
37%2.50
Under 3.5
63%1.62
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.3 = 10
Over 8.5
60%1.34
Over 9.5
49%1.57
Over 10.5
37%1.91
Under 8.5
40%2.95
Under 9.5
51%2.22
Under 10.5
63%1.78
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.3 = 5
Over 3.5
73%1.45
Over 4.5
55%2.04
Under 3.5
27%2.51
Under 4.5
45%1.70

Match Events

6'Z. Booth
28'E. Lowen
29'P. Quinton
40'D. Yedlin
43'C. Durkin
45+1'G. Dillon INS. Spierings out
46'Lineker Rodrigues INS. Lobjanidze out
60'S. SolansAssist: S. Lobjanidze
65'E. Lowen INM. Hartel out
65'C. Durkin INA. Matan out
73'M. Hartel
78'D. Luna INV. Olatunji out
80'S. Jeong
84'S. Jeong INT. Ostrak out
90+1'S. Solans INA. Hezarkhani out
90+1'Z. Booth IND. Marczuk out
90+2'S. Becher INP. Ault out

Lineups

St. Louis City
3-4-2-1Coach: Yoann Damet
Real Salt Lake
3-4-1-2Coach: Pablo Mastroeni
Avg rating7.06
Avg rating6.71
Roman BürkiC7.31R. Bürki
Lukas MacNaughton7.35L. MacNaughton
Timo Baumgartl7.532T. Baumgartl
Dante Polvara7.021D. Polvara
Conrad Wallem7.36C. Wallem
Daniel Edelman7.224D. Edelman
Christopher Durkin6.98C. Durkin
Tomas Totland6.614T. Totland
Jeong Sang-bin6.577J. Sang-bin
Eduard Löwen7.710E. Löwen
Simon Becher6.311S. Becher
Rafael CabralC5.91R. Cabral
DeAndre Yedlin7.02D. Yedlin
Philip Quinton7.026P. Quinton
Sam Junqua7.929S. Junqua
Zach Booth6.223Z. Booth
Griffin Dillon6.727G. Dillon
Noel Caliskan6.692N. Caliskan
Juan Sanabria6.28J. Sanabria
Diego Luna6.310D. Luna
Lineker Rodrigues6.770L. Rodrigues
Sergi Solans7.322S. Solans

St. Louis City Substitutes

23Alexandru Mățan65'for C. Durkin7.7
17Marcel Hartel65'for E. Lowen73'7.3
7Tomáš Ostrák84'for S. Jeong6.3
29Palmer Ault90+2'for S. Becher
39Benjamin Lundt
27Fallou Fall
28Miguel Perez
59Mykhi Joyner
20Rafael Santos

Real Salt Lake Substitutes

6Stijn Spierings45+1'for G. Dillon6.9
12Saba Lobzhanidze46'for Lineker Rodrigues6.6
17Victor Olatunji78'for D. Luna6.7
11Dominik Marczuk90+1'for Z. Booth
39Aiden Hezarkhani90+1'for S. Solans
31Mason Stajduhar
4Lukas Engel
98Alexandros Katranis
21Juan Jose Arias

Match Stats

St. Louis CityReal Salt Lake
67%Ball Possession33%
9Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards3
20Total Shots8
4Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal2
11Shots Inside Box5
9Shots Outside Box3
10Blocked Shots3
12Fouls10
2Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
651Total Passes317
576Passes Accurate250
88%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake
1731Elo Rating 1556
1.87Attack 1.73
1.98Defense 1.83
31%Hit Rate 44%
12.2Shots per Game 13.9
5.9Shots on Target 6.0
4.8Corners per Game 4.1
1.8Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+174 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📈BTTS Trend83% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.7 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

St. Louis CitySt. Louis City1Wins · 17%
Draws233%
Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3Wins · 50%
3.8Avg Goals
83%Both teams scored5 of 6
83%3+ goals5 of 6

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer19/10/2025
St. Louis CityReal Salt Lake
22
Major League Soccer06/07/2025
Real Salt LakeSt. Louis City
32
Major League Soccer31/03/2024
Real Salt LakeSt. Louis City
31
Major League Soccer25/02/2024
St. Louis CityReal Salt Lake
11
Major League Soccer22/06/2023
St. Louis CityReal Salt Lake
13
Major League Soccer26/03/2023
Real Salt LakeSt. Louis City
04

Recent Form

St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
8W1D1L
26/07/2026
St. Louis CityColorado Rapids
10
W
23/07/2026
Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis City
13
W
17/07/2026
St. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
32
W
23/05/2026
St. Louis CityAustin
30
W
20/05/2026
St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
4222
W
17/05/2026
DC UnitedSt. Louis City
11
D
14/05/2026
St. Louis CityLos Angeles FC
21
W
10/05/2026
Colorado RapidsSt. Louis City
01
W
03/05/2026
AustinSt. Louis City
20
L
30/04/2026
Chicago FireSt. Louis City
12
W
Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake
4W1D5L
26/07/2026
Portland TimbersReal Salt Lake
21
L
23/07/2026
Los Angeles FCReal Salt Lake
31
L
16/07/2026
Real Salt LakeBurnley
41
W
23/05/2026
Minnesota United FCReal Salt Lake
11
D
17/05/2026
Real Salt LakeColorado Rapids
21
W
14/05/2026
Real Salt LakeHouston Dynamo
30
W
10/05/2026
FC DallasReal Salt Lake
31
L
02/05/2026
Real Salt LakePortland Timbers
20
W
27/04/2026
Los Angeles GalaxyReal Salt Lake
21
L
23/04/2026
Real Salt LakeInter Miami
02
L

Referee Profile

C. Penso113 matches

4.88Cards per match
4.67Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
22.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

C. Penso4.88
Other referees4.34

4.88 cards a match, 0.54 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.34).

Cards come from 112 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps31167863:32+3155LWDDL
2FC DallasFC Dallas32159858:49+954LWDWL
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City32149958:47+1151LLLDW
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes31139952:45+748LDDDW
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo31139941:39+248DDDDL
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC321211950:35+1547DDWDL
7Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3111101041:39+243DDLWW
8Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake321261450:49+142WWWDL
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids311261342:41+142WDDDL
10Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3210111145:54-941DDWLW
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers321171457:60-340WWDLD
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC329111250:56-638WDWDD
13San DiegoSan Diego318111255:58-335DDDLD
14AustinAustin328101441:59-1834LWLLL
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City32642238:80-4222LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3163:3255
2FC DallasFC Dallas3258:4954
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3258:4751
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3152:4548
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3141:3948
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3250:3547
7Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3141:3943
8Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3250:4942
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids3142:4142
10Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3245:5441
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers3257:6040
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3250:5638
13San DiegoSan Diego3155:5835
14AustinAustin3241:5934
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City3238:8022
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About the St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake forecast

The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, St. Louis City are 3rd and Real Salt Lake 8th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: St. Louis City 58-47, Real Salt Lake 50-49. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

St. Louis City have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.