Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd Prediction
England · Regular Season - 8
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalSOLIDModel43%SurpriseMediumGap-3.9%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.64
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+4.9%
Stoke City Rest
6 days
Sheffield Utd Rest
2 days
Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd: the result in context
Stoke City beat Sheffield Utd 2-1 in the Championship on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Sheffield Utd have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 2.9 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
143%2.30
X29%3.30
228%2.98
Double Chance
1X72%1.36
X257%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%1.67
No44%2.08
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.38 + 1.14 = 2.52
Over 1.575%1.29
Over 2.553%1.89
Over 3.529%3.10
Under 1.525%3.50
Under 2.547%1.91
Under 3.571%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.5 = 10.5
Over 8.567%1.39
Over 9.556%1.74
Over 10.546%2.20
Under 8.533%2.71
Under 9.544%2.02
Under 10.554%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.1 = 3.9
Over 3.555%1.66
Over 4.535%2.17
Under 3.545%2.13
Under 4.565%1.64
Match Events
10'Kalvin PhillipsTime wasting
32'Justin DevennyFoul
43'Maksym TaloverovFoul
51'Kalvin Phillips
54'Oliver ArblasterFoul
63'Ethan GalbraithArgument
63'Eric Junior BocatArgument
63'Liam KitchingFoul
64'Lamine Cissé INGeorge Hirst out
64'El Hadji Soumare INSam Gallagher out
65'Maksym Taloverov INJunior Tchamadeu out
67'Oliver Arblaster INThomas Cannon out
69'Rhys Norrington-DaviesFoul
78'Jack McglynnAssist: Junior Tchamadeu
80'Justin Devenny INMillion·Manhoef out
80'Eric Junior Bocat INLuca Bombino out
80'Patrick Bamford INJordan Ayew out
80'Ben Brereton INTahith Chong out
80'Hamza Choudhury INJamie Shackleton out
86'Sam GallagherAssist: Ethan Galbraith
88'Jamal Baptiste INRomelle Donovan out
Lineups
Stoke CitySheffield Utd
3-4-2-1Coach: Chris WilderAvg ratingAvg rating
1V. Johansson
16B. Wilmot
40M. Talovierov
5L. Graham
2B. Johnson
27E. Hadji Djibril Soumaré
8E. Galbraith
17E. Bocat
7J. McGlynn
11L. Cissé
13J. Devenny
1M. Cooper
33J. Baptiste
5J. Tanganga
15L. Kitching
8H. Choudhury
27K. Phillips
42S. Peck
30R. Norrington-Davies
4O. Arblaster
22B. Brereton
45P. BamfordStoke City Substitutes
24J. Griffiths
23B. Gibson
22J. Tchamadeu65'for Maksym Taloverov
21L. Bombino80'for Eric Junior Bocat
19T. Rigo
42M. Manhoef80'for Justin Devenny
4B. Pearson
15G. Hirst64'for Lamine Cissé
20S. Gallagher64'for El Hadji Soumare86'
Sheffield Utd Substitutes
11R. Donovan88'for Jamal Baptiste
10J. Ayew80'for Patrick Bamford
9T. Cannon67'for Oliver Arblaster
7J. Rothwell
19T. Chong80'for Ben Brereton
25M. McGuinness
2M. Doherty
16J. Shackleton80'for Hamza Choudhury
17A. Davies
Match Stats
Stoke CitySheffield Utd 62%Ball Possession38%
8Corner Kicks1
4Yellow Cards4
12Total Shots8
5Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal3
6Shots Inside Box3
6Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots2
13Fouls15
2Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves3
474Total Passes292
390Passes Accurate196
15Free Kicks12
Team Comparison
Stoke CitySheffield Utd1619Elo Rating 1645
1.23Attack 1.53
2.11Defense 1.86
54%Hit Rate 39%
10.5Shots per Game 15.1
2.7Shots on Target 4.9
4.8Corners per Game 4.7
1.4Cards per Game 2.4
AI Insights
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Stoke City- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.2 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Sheffield Utd- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.4 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings, all competitions
Stoke City2Wins · 25%Draws00%
Sheffield Utd6Wins · 75%
6Wins · 75%2.9Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored4 of 8
63%3+ goals5 of 8
Previous meetings
29/12/2025Stoke CitySheffield Utd12
06/12/2025Sheffield UtdStoke City40
25/04/2025Stoke CitySheffield Utd02
26/10/2024Sheffield UtdStoke City20
14/01/2023Sheffield UtdStoke City31
08/10/2022Stoke CitySheffield Utd31
02/04/2022Stoke CitySheffield Utd10
16/10/2021Sheffield UtdStoke City21
Recent Form
Stoke City4W2D4L
12/09/2026
WatfordStoke City
WatfordStoke City12
W08/09/2026
CardiffStoke City
05/09/2026CardiffStoke City11
DStoke City
Charlton40
W01/09/2026Stoke City
Norwich
Stoke CityNorwich10
W29/08/2026
WolvesStoke City
25/08/2026WolvesStoke City41
LStoke City
Hull City4151
L22/08/2026
SouthamptonStoke City31
L15/08/2026Stoke City
Swansea
08/08/2026Stoke CitySwansea12
LStoke City
Oldham20
W01/08/2026Stoke City
Valencia
Stoke CityValencia11
DSheffield Utd4W3D3L
16/09/2026
Fleetwood TownSheffield UtdSheffield UtdWolves
BlackburnSheffield UtdBlackburnSheffield Utd
Mansfield TownSheffield Utd
Fleetwood TownSheffield Utd10
L13/09/2026Sheffield UtdWolves01
L08/09/2026BlackburnSheffield Utd12
W05/09/2026Sheffield UtdNorwich
Sheffield UtdNorwich13
L01/09/2026Sheffield Utd
Bolton
Sheffield UtdBolton32
W29/08/2026CardiffSheffield Utd
25/08/2026CardiffSheffield Utd22
DBlackburnSheffield Utd12
W22/08/2026SwanseaSheffield Utd
SwanseaSheffield Utd00
D15/08/2026Sheffield Utd
Birmingham
09/08/2026Sheffield UtdBirmingham00
DMansfield TownSheffield Utd03
WReferee Profile
4.14Cards per match
4.01Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.14 cards a match, 0.36 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.78).
Cards come from 200 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | WDWWD |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | LWWDD |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | LLDWD |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 10:25 | 5 |
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About the Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd forecast
The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Stoke City and Sheffield Utd in the Championship table
In the Championship table, Stoke City are 9th and Sheffield Utd 12th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Stoke City 18-16, Sheffield Utd 16-15. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.