Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Prediction
Argentina · Clausura - 3
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+0.2%
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.57
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Velez Sarsfield Rest
4 days
Independiente Rest
3 days
Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente: the result in context
Velez Sarsfield beat Independiente 1-0 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 3 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Velez Sarsfield tend to win more corners, 6.0 a game to 3.3 for Independiente.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
144%2.55
X30%2.90
226%3.05
Double Chance
1X74%1.36
X257%1.49
Both Teams to Score
Yes53%2.02
No47%1.73
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.16 + 1.01 = 2.17
Over 1.567%1.49
Over 2.539%2.55
Over 3.520%5.00
Under 1.533%2.56
Under 2.561%1.50
Under 3.580%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4 = 10.1
Over 8.560%1.79
Over 9.549%2.27
Over 10.537%3.00
Under 8.540%1.95
Under 9.551%1.55
Under 10.563%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.5 = 4.6
Over 3.569%-
Over 4.550%1.53
Under 3.531%-
Under 4.550%2.25
Match Events
27'L. Godoy INS. Arias out
42'Dilan GodoyFoul
45+3'Maximiliano GutiérrezFoul
46'L. Magallan INE. Mammana out
46'M. Abaldo INF. Valdez out
53'Santiago MontielFoul
57'M. Lanzini INS. Escobar out
57'D. Godoy INT. Aguirre out
70'T. Aguirre
72'Matías PellegriniFoul
76'M. Perez Curci INM. Meza out
76'M. Gutierrez INL. Millan out
85'Simon EscobarFoul
86'M. Pellegrini INL. Feler out
88'L. Robertone INC. Baeza out
Lineups
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente
4-2-3-1Coach: Gustavo QuinterosAvg ratingAvg rating
1T. Marchiori
4J. Garcia
32T. Silvero
16L. Magallan
C3E. Gomez
29R. Aliendro
8L. Robertone
11M. Pellegrini
10D. Valdes
22M. Lanzini
15D. Godoy
33R. Rey
29L. Godoy
13J. Fedorco
26K. Lomonaco
22F. Zabala
16M. Perez Curci
C23I. Marcone
28M. Gutierrez
7S. Montiel
19M. Abaldo
9G. AvalosVelez Sarsfield Substitutes
33F. Villalba
34A. Busso
5C. Baeza88'for L. Robertone
2E. Mammana46'for L. Magallan
17A. Veron
19L. Cristaldo
18S. Escobar57'for M. Lanzini85'
47A. Pereyra
48L. Feler86'for M. Pellegrini
39T. Aguirre57'for D. Godoy70'
37J. Policella
30L. Piola
Independiente Substitutes
1J. Blazquez
8M. Meza76'for M. Perez Curci
3J. De Irastorza
20F. Cruz
18F. Valdez46'for M. Abaldo
4S. Arias27'for L. Godoy
10L. Cabral
32D. Martinez
14L. Millan76'for M. Gutierrez
21F. Closter
34F. Tempone
35J. Arrayago
Match Stats
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente 54%Ball Possession46%
4Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots11
4Shots on Goal1
4Shots off Goal8
7Shots Inside Box5
5Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots2
17Fouls13
2Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves2
438Total Passes374
337Passes Accurate281
77%Pass Accuracy75%
Team Comparison
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente1720Elo Rating 1655
1.30Attack 0.94
1.68Defense 1.64
44%Hit Rate 17%
14.4Shots per Game 11.3
4.9Shots on Target 2.9
6.0Corners per Game 3.3
1.9Cards per Game 2.7
Game State Tendencies
Velez Sarsfield- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Independiente- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Velez Sarsfield2Wins · 20%Draws660%
Independiente2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%2.1Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
31/01/2026IndependienteVelez Sarsfield11
17/08/2025Velez SarsfieldIndependiente21
13/02/2025IndependienteVelez Sarsfield30
27/09/2024Velez SarsfieldIndependiente10
27/05/2024IndependienteVelez Sarsfield11
12/02/2023Velez SarsfieldIndependiente00
16/09/2022Velez SarsfieldIndependiente02
28/08/2022IndependienteVelez Sarsfield11
20/02/2022Velez SarsfieldIndependiente00
03/10/2021Velez SarsfieldIndependiente33
Recent Form
Velez Sarsfield5W3D2L
31/07/2026
Talleres CordobaVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
Instituto Cordoba
Talleres CordobaVelez Sarsfield13
W25/07/2026Velez SarsfieldInstituto Cordoba10
W11/05/2026Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia L.P.
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia L.P.01
L05/05/2026Velez Sarsfield
Newells Old Boys
Velez SarsfieldNewells Old Boys11
D01/05/2026Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia Y Tiro20
W27/04/2026Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
Velez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe22
D21/04/2026
San LorenzoVelez Sarsfield
San LorenzoVelez Sarsfield00
D14/04/2026Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Velez SarsfieldCentral Cordoba de Santiago10
W07/04/2026Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Armenio
Velez SarsfieldDeportivo Armenio41
W03/04/2026
Gimnasia M.Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.Velez Sarsfield32
LIndependiente7W1D2L
31/07/2026IndependienteNewells Old Boys
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente
IndependienteNewells Old Boys10
W26/07/2026Estudiantes L.P.Independiente02
W23/05/2026Union Santa FeIndependiente
Union Santa FeIndependiente02
W10/05/2026
Rosario CentralIndependiente
Rosario CentralIndependiente31
L02/05/2026San LorenzoIndependiente
San LorenzoIndependiente12
W24/04/2026
Deportivo RiestraIndependiente
Deportivo RiestraIndependiente20
L19/04/2026Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
IndependienteDefensa Y Justicia31
W12/04/2026
Boca JuniorsIndependiente
Boca JuniorsIndependiente11
D04/04/2026Independiente
Racing Club
IndependienteRacing Club10
W27/03/2026Independiente
Atenas
IndependienteAtenas42
WReferee Profile
5.08Cards per match
4.89Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
25.7Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.08 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.15).
Cards come from 149 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | +12 | 31 | WWLWW |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | +13 | 30 | WDWWD |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | +6 | 28 | DWLLW |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | +4 | 26 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | +4 | 24 | WDWLL |
| 6 |  Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | +3 | 24 | LWDLW |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | +4 | 21 | LLWLD |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 | LWWLW |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 | LLLWW |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 | WDWLL |
| 12 |  Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 | WLLLW |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 | WDWWL |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 19:7 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22:9 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 18:12 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 17:13 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 24:20 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 18:15 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14:14 | 22 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24:20 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 17:17 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 18:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 14:22 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 11:21 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 15:27 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5:12 | 11 |
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 21:10 | +11 | 32 | LWWLW |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 23:13 | +10 | 27 | DWLLW |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 22:14 | +8 | 27 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20:13 | +7 | 27 | LLLWW |
| 5 | Lanus | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17:10 | +7 | 24 | LWDLW |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 21 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16:15 | +1 | 20 | WDWLL |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 19 | WDWLL |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7:12 | -5 | 18 | DDWDL |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 21:23 | -2 | 17 | LLWLD |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17:18 | -1 | 14 | WWLWW |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10:14 | -4 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11:23 | -12 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13:22 | -9 | 9 | WWLWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 14 | 21:10 | 32 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 23:13 | 27 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 22:14 | 27 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 20:13 | 27 |
| 5 | Lanus | 14 | 17:10 | 24 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 14 | 13:10 | 21 |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | 16:15 | 20 |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 12:14 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 7:12 | 18 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 21:23 | 17 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 14 | 17:18 | 14 |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 14:20 | 14 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 10:14 | 12 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 14 | 11:23 | 10 |
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 14 | 13:22 | 9 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Profesional Argentina matches
- Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors 02/08/26
- River Plate vs Rosario Central 03/08/26
- Lanus vs Instituto Cordoba 03/08/26
- Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia 03/08/26
- Platense vs Talleres Cordoba 04/08/26
- Central Cordoba de Santiago vs San Lorenzo 04/08/26
- Huracan vs Atletico Tucuman 04/08/26
- Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P. 06/08/26
About the Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Profesional Argentina match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Velez Sarsfield and Independiente in the Liga Profesional Argentina table
Velez Sarsfield and Independiente are close in the Liga Profesional Argentina table, 3rd and 5th, with 4 points between them. League goal record so far: Velez Sarsfield 18-12, Independiente 24-20. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.