Athletic Club vs Novorizontino Prediction

Estádio Joaquim Portugal, São João del Rei·Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil 25/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.45
SignalGOODModel31%SurpriseHighGap+5.7%
Athletic Club Rest
4 days
Novorizontino Rest
3 days

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino: the result in context

Novorizontino beat Athletic Club 4-1 in the Serie B on 24 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 3 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game. Referee Savio Pereira Sampaio averages 4.52 cards a game, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
29%3.25
X
32%3.00
2
39%2.32
Double Chance
1X
61%1.55
X2
71%1.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%2.00
No
51%1.72
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.15 + 1.21 = 2.36
Over 1.5
69%1.45
Over 2.5
40%2.42
Over 3.5
23%4.60
Under 1.5
31%2.57
Under 2.5
60%1.53
Under 3.5
77%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.7 = 9.5
Over 8.5
59%1.38
Over 9.5
50%1.67
Over 10.5
39%2.04
Under 8.5
41%2.83
Under 9.5
50%2.10
Under 10.5
61%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.4 = 4.7
Over 3.5
61%1.45
Over 4.5
46%2.00
Under 3.5
39%2.48
Under 4.5
54%1.73

Match Events

11'Diogo Batista de SouzaFoul
18'JotaFoul
19'Nicolas CarecaAssist: Rômulo
33'Jota INDixon Vera out
45+1'Diogo Batista de SouzaFoul
45+1'Diogo Batista de SouzaFoul
46'Jhan Pool Torres INDouglas Pele out
59'Robson
61'Max INRedney Emanuel de Jesus Assis out
61'Enzo INMarcelo Henrique out
61'Reidiney INJuninho out
68'Felipe Negrucci INFelipe Vieira out
73'Leo Naldi INMatheus Bianqui out
73'Rômulo INDiego Galo out
77'Matheus BianquiAssist: Diego Galo
80'Robson INCarlão out
80'Nicolas Careca INMaykon Jesus out
81'Wilinton AponzáAssist: Redney Emanuel de Jesus Assis
90+5'Luís OyamaAssist: Juninho

Lineups

Athletic Club
Coach: Souza Alex
Novorizontino
Coach: Moreira Enderson

Athletic Club Starting XI

1Luan Polli6.9
4Lucas BeleziC5.9
16Joao Miguel6.3
19Jhan Pool Torres46'replaced by Douglas Pele6.7
22Diogo Batista de Souza11'45+1'45+1'5.3
5Felipe Negrucci68'replaced by Felipe Vieira6.2
15Jota18'33'replaced by Dixon Vera6.2
23Enzo61'replaced by Marcelo Henrique6.5
11Max61'replaced by Redney Emanuel de Jesus Assis6.9
20Wilinton Aponzá81'7.2
17Kauan Rodrigues7.0
Avg rating6.40

Novorizontino Starting XI

93Jordi6.7
2Madson7.0
26Gabriel Bahia6.9
4Patrick7.0
5Sander7.0
6Luís Oyama90+5'7.9
18Leo Naldi73'replaced by Matheus Bianqui6.3
41Reidiney61'replaced by Juninho6.6
10Rômulo73'replaced by Diego Galo7.0
30Nicolas Careca19'80'replaced by Maykon Jesus7.6
11RobsonC59'80'replaced by Carlão7.2
Avg rating6.95

Athletic Club Substitutes

21Dixon Vera33'for Jota6.2
2Douglas Pele46'for Jhan Pool Torres6.3
6Marcelo Henrique61'for Enzo6.3
18Redney Emanuel de Jesus Assis61'for Max6.3
13Felipe Vieira68'for Felipe Negrucci6.2
12Tony
3Alexandre Pena
9Kauan Lindes
7Bruninho
14Yago Santos
8Gian Cabezas
10Gustavinho

Novorizontino Substitutes

50Juninho61'for Reidiney6.6
17Matheus Bianqui73'for Leo Naldi77'7.3
19Diego Galo73'for Rômulo6.9
66Maykon Jesus80'for Nicolas Careca6.5
9Carlão80'for Robson6.7
31César
22Alexis Alvarino
14Eduardo Brock
28Marlon
16Vinicius Paiva
27Diego Mathias

Match Stats

Athletic ClubNovorizontino
46%Ball Possession54%
9Corner Kicks5
3Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
10Total Shots17
1Shots on Goal8
8Shots off Goal7
5Shots Inside Box12
5Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots2
12Fouls7
3Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves0
399Total Passes487
320Passes Accurate397
80%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

Athletic ClubAthletic Club
NovorizontinoNovorizontino
1559Elo Rating 1740
0.70Attack 2.46
1.73Defense 2.35
0%Hit Rate 77%
15.2Shots per Game 16.0
3.5Shots on Target 6.6
6.5Corners per Game 4.5
2.4Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Athletic ClubAthletic Club
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
NovorizontinoNovorizontino
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Athletic ClubAthletic Club0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
NovorizontinoNovorizontino3Wins · 100%
2.0Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
33%3+ goals1 of 3

Previous meetings

Serie B20/04/2026
NovorizontinoAthletic Club
21
Serie B20/09/2025
NovorizontinoAthletic Club
10
Serie B18/05/2025
Athletic ClubNovorizontino
02

Referee Profile

Savio Pereira Sampaio168 matches

4.52Cards per match
4.34Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Savio Pereira Sampaio4.52
Other referees5.18

4.52 cards a match, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).

Cards come from 151 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino361910764:31+3367WWDWW
2JuventudeJuventude361811747:25+2265DWDDW
3Vila NovaVila Nova36189952:38+1463DLDWD
4CriciumaCriciuma361881038:30+862WLWWL
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC361614643:31+1262DDWDW
6CRBCRB351671253:49+455WLDWL
7Sport RecifeSport Recife361413948:39+955DWLDW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense361413942:33+955DLDDL
9GoiasGoias351571336:40-452WDWWL
10São BernardoSão Bernardo3614101251:40+1152WWLDL
11Operario-PROperario-PR361491346:48-251LWLLL
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP361391441:39+248DWWWW
13CuiabaCuiaba3611141133:30+347LLLLD
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3611141142:41+147WLDDL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3612101440:46-646WLDLL
16CearaCeara3611101538:46-843LLDLW
17AvaiAvai361071933:46-1337LLDWW
18LondrinaLondrina36882045:54-932LLWDL
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro36752426:55-2926WWWLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta36362721:78-5715LDDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3664:3167
2JuventudeJuventude3647:2565
3Vila NovaVila Nova3652:3863
4CriciumaCriciuma3638:3062
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3643:3162
6CRBCRB3553:4955
7Sport RecifeSport Recife3648:3955
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3642:3355
9GoiasGoias3536:4052
10São BernardoSão Bernardo3651:4052
11Operario-PROperario-PR3646:4851
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3641:3948
13CuiabaCuiaba3633:3047
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3642:4147
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3640:4646
16CearaCeara3638:4643
17AvaiAvai3633:4637
18LondrinaLondrina3645:5432
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3626:5526
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3621:7815
PromotionRelegation

About the Athletic Club vs Novorizontino forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Athletic Club and Novorizontino in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Novorizontino are 1st and Athletic Club 14th, 20 points apart. League goal record so far: Athletic Club 42-41, Novorizontino 64-31. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Novorizontino have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.