Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.49
SignalSOLIDModel66%SurpriseMediumGap-0.1%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.49
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Atletico Nacional Rest
4 days
Santa Fe Rest
3 days
Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe: the result in context
Atletico Nacional beat Santa Fe 2-0 in the Primera A on 30 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them. Referee Jose Alexander Ortiz Novoa averages 6.94 cards a game, 0.84 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
164%1.49
X22%4.33
214%5.82
Double Chance
1X86%1.10
X236%2.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%1.67
No48%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.54 + 0.91 = 2.45
Over 1.577%1.18
Over 2.556%1.57
Over 3.536%2.40
Under 1.523%4.78
Under 2.544%2.33
Under 3.564%1.54
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 3.4 = 9.5
Over 8.559%1.48
Over 9.547%1.83
Over 10.536%2.33
Under 8.541%2.41
Under 9.553%1.88
Under 10.564%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.8 = 5.1
Over 3.574%-
Over 4.557%-
Under 3.526%-
Under 4.543%-
Match Events
16'K. D. Toscano BassaFoul
22'V. MorenoFoul
24'E. CabreraAssist: A. Sarmiento
28'E. OliveraOG
38'A. RomanFoul
58'M. Puerta INJ. Obrian out
58'K. D. Toscano Bassa IND. Torres out
58'A. Zapata INF. Fagundez out
63'J. Rodriguez INN. Rodriguez out
63'A. Sarmiento INE. Benitez out
68'M. Lovera INO. Fernandez out
69'J. Obrian
71'F. Marin
74'E. Cabrera INJ. Zapata out
74'S. Velasquez INM. Casco out
80'J. Rengifo INR. Escorcia out
82'J. Torres INE. Murillo out
83'F. Fagundez
84'E. Benitez
Lineups
Atletico NacionalSanta Fe
4-4-2Avg ratingAvg rating
34F. Armani
6A. Román
15A. Reyes
16W. Tesillo
33S. Velásquez
22E. Cabrera
26F. Marin
21J. Campuzano
29A. Sarmiento
C23J. Rodríguez
19J. Manuel Rengifo
12W. Asprilla
13H. Palacios
18E. Olivera
3V. Moreno
4M. Puerta
14L. Angel Palacios
6K. Toscano
7J. Torres
10A. Zapata
C11H. Rodallega
17M. LoveraAtletico Nacional Substitutes
25Luis Marquinez
31Xavi Rios
4César Haydar
20Milton Casco74'for S. Velasquez
80Juan Zapata74'for E. Cabrera
28Simon Rojas
13Nicolás Rodríguez63'for J. Rodriguez
32Emanuel Benitez63'for A. Sarmiento84'
36Jose Rafael Escorcia80'for J. Rengifo
Santa Fe Substitutes
31Juan Espitia
43Jean Caicedo
15Ivan Scarpeta
39Cristhian Portocarrero
21Ewil Murillo Renteria82'for J. Torres
8Omar Fernández68'for M. Lovera
16Daniel Torres58'for K. D. Toscano Bassa
9Franco Fagúndez58'for A. Zapata83'
77Jader Obrian58'for M. Puerta69'
Match Stats
Atletico NacionalSanta Fe 64%Ball Possession36%
1Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards4
6Total Shots6
2Shots on Goal1
2Shots off Goal3
3Shots Inside Box2
3Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots2
11Fouls11
4Offsides3
1Goalkeeper Saves1
687Total Passes364
605Passes Accurate291
88%Pass Accuracy80%
Team Comparison
Atletico NacionalSanta Fe1759Elo Rating 1661
2.15Attack 1.13
2.46Defense 1.59
83%Hit Rate 42%
11.8Shots per Game 13.0
4.9Shots on Target 4.0
3.7Corners per Game 3.7
2.2Cards per Game 2.9
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Atletico Nacional- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Santa Fe- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Atletico Nacional5Wins · 50%Draws440%
Santa Fe1Wins · 10%
1Wins · 10%2.8Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10
Previous meetings
26/02/2026Santa FeAtletico Nacional12
26/07/2025Atletico NacionalSanta Fe11
13/06/2025Santa FeAtletico Nacional12
08/06/2025Atletico NacionalSanta Fe12
13/02/2025Santa FeAtletico Nacional22
09/12/2024Santa FeAtletico Nacional03
21/11/2024Atletico NacionalSanta Fe50
05/11/2024Atletico NacionalSanta Fe11
13/04/2024Santa FeAtletico Nacional00
21/09/2023Atletico NacionalSanta Fe30
Recent Form
Atletico Nacional5W3D2L
26/10/2026Atletico Nacional
Independiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Deportivo Pasto
CucutaAtletico Nacional
ChicoAtletico NacionalAtletico NacionalIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Deportes TolimaAtletico Nacional
JuniorAtletico Nacional
Millonarios
LlanerosAtletico Nacional
Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin21
W23/10/2026Atletico NacionalDeportivo Pasto30
W21/10/2026CucutaAtletico Nacional10
L17/10/2026ChicoAtletico Nacional14
W15/10/2026Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin32
W09/10/2026Atletico NacionalDeportes Tolima00
D01/10/2026Atletico NacionalJunior31
W26/09/2026Atletico Nacional
Chapecoense-sc
25/09/2026Atletico NacionalChapecoense-sc11
DAtletico NacionalMillonarios11
D21/09/2026LlanerosAtletico Nacional20
LSanta Fe6W1D3L
27/10/2026Santa Fe
BucaramangaSanta Fe
JaguaresIndependiente MedellinSanta FeSanta Fe
Deportivo Cali
Vasco DA GamaSanta Fe
Santa FeBucaramanga21
W22/10/2026Santa FeJaguares21
W19/10/2026LlanerosSanta Fe
LlanerosSanta Fe10
L11/10/2026Santa Fe
Fortaleza FC
06/10/2026Santa FeFortaleza FC9282
WIndependiente MedellinSanta Fe01
W29/09/2026
Deportivo PereiraSanta Fe
Deportivo PereiraSanta Fe12
W26/09/2026
Union MagdalenaSanta Fe
23/09/2026Union MagdalenaSanta Fe11
DSanta FeDeportivo Cali01
L19/09/2026
Alianza ValleduparSanta Fe
16/09/2026Alianza ValleduparSanta Fe14
WVasco DA GamaSanta Fe20
LReferee Profile
6.94Cards per match
6.22Yellow cards per match
0.72Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
6.94 cards a match, 0.84 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (6.10).
Cards come from 32 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | WLWWL |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | WLWLD |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | WDDDL |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | DDLWW |
| 8 |  Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | LWDLL |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | DWWLD |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | WLDWL |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | DWDDD |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | WDDLL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | LWDLW |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | WLWLD |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | WDWDD |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 32:13 | +19 | 35 | WWDWW |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 31:12 | +19 | 34 | WLWLD |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 24:10 | +14 | 30 | DWWLD |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25:16 | +9 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23:17 | +6 | 28 | DDLWW |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 24 | WDDDL |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 23 | WLDWL |
| 9 | Águilas Doradas | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 21:20 | +1 | 22 | LWLWD |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 21 | WDWDD |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21:23 | -2 | 20 | LWDLL |
| 13 | Alianza Valledupar | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16:27 | -11 | 18 | LWDLW |
| 14 | Llaneros | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16:21 | -5 | 17 | DWDDD |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12:19 | -7 | 17 | DLLLD |
| 16 | Junior | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 16 | WLWWL |
| 17 | Chico | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 13:26 | -13 | 16 | WLWLD |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 13 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 16 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 17:24 | -7 | 12 | WDDLL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11:24 | -13 | 12 | WDLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 32:13 | 35 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 31:12 | 34 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 24:10 | 30 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 25:16 | 28 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 23:17 | 28 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 17 | 21:18 | 24 |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin | 16 | 23:24 | 23 |
| 9 | Águilas Doradas | 16 | 21:20 | 22 |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 18:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 21:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Alianza Valledupar | 16 | 16:27 | 18 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 16 | 16:21 | 17 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 12:19 | 17 |
| 16 | Junior | 16 | 21:24 | 16 |
| 17 | Chico | 16 | 13:26 | 16 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 17:29 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 16 | 17:24 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 11:24 | 12 |
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This match
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About the Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe forecast
The forecasts for this Primera A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe in the Primera A table
In the Primera A table, Atletico Nacional are 1st and Santa Fe 7th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: Atletico Nacional 35-15, Santa Fe 29-22. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Atletico Nacional have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.