Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille Prediction
World · League Stage - 4
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
85%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.30
SignalSTRONGModel83%SurpriseMediumGap+8.5%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.73
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+9.0%
Bayer Leverkusen Rest
5 days
Marseille Rest
4 days
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: result, form and history
Marseille beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 in the UEFA Europa League on 5 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Bayer Leverkusen tend to win more corners, 7.9 a game to 4.1 for Marseille.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
179%1.30
X12%6.22
29%8.32
Double Chance
1X91%1.08
X221%3.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%1.57
No44%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.53 + 0.8 = 3.33
Over 1.586%1.09
Over 2.569%1.33
Over 3.549%1.86
Under 1.514%7.00
Under 2.531%3.30
Under 3.551%1.95
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 2.9 = 8.3
Over 8.544%1.55
Over 9.533%1.91
Over 10.524%2.36
Under 8.556%2.39
Under 9.567%1.85
Under 10.576%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2 = 3.8
Over 3.553%1.64
Over 4.533%2.20
Under 3.547%2.18
Under 4.567%1.62
Match Events
6'Miguel GutiérrezFoul
38'Igor PaixãoArgument
54'Ulisses GarciaFoul
68'Robert Andrich INEqui Fernández out
68'Lucas Vázquez INAfonso Moreira out
71'Geoffrey Kondogbia INTochukwu Nnadi out
71'Igor Paixão INTadjidine Mmadi out
77'Amine Gouiri
79'Jonas Hofmann INMontrell Culbreath out
79'Ibrahim Maza INMalik Tillman out
84'Amine Gouiri INNeal Maupay out
84'Ulisses Garcia INAlexi Koum out
90'Tochukwu NnadiFoul
Lineups
Bayer LeverkusenMarseille
4-1-4-1Coach: Bruno GenesioAvg ratingAvg rating
1M. Flekken
4J. Quansah
12E. Tapsoba
2F. Medina
3M. Gutiérrez
24A. García
8R. Andrich
17L. Vázquez
30I. Maza
7J. Hofmann
14P. Schick
12J. de Lange
74K. Bezahaf
4C. Egan-Riley
21N. Aguerd
25U. Garcia
23P. Højbjerg
22T. Weah
19G. Kondogbia
8H. Abdelli
14I. Paixão
9A. GouiriBayer Leverkusen Substitutes
5L. Badé
28J. Blaswich
42M. Culbreath79'for Jonas Hofmann
6E. Fernández68'for Robert Andrich
43B. Hawighorst
36N. Lomb
9Afonso Moreira68'for Lucas Vázquez
10M. Tillman79'for Ibrahim Maza
Marseille Substitutes
42Nouhoum Kamissoko
11N. Maupay84'for Amine Gouiri
18B. Meité
43T. Mmadi71'for Igor Paixão
6T. Nnadi71'for Geoffrey Kondogbia90'
44Antoine Valero
7A. Gomes
48K. Abdallah
92T. Vermot
41Ibrahim Gomis
46E. Mbondo84'for Ulisses Garcia
Match Stats
Bayer LeverkusenMarseille 58%Ball Possession42%
6Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards3
10Total Shots8
3Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal4
9Shots Inside Box5
1Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots2
7Fouls12
1Goalkeeper Saves3
702Total Passes522
626Passes Accurate458
12Free Kicks7
Team Comparison
Bayer LeverkusenMarseille1865Elo Rating 1817
1.76Attack 1.82
0.97Defense 2.09
44%Hit Rate 86%
16.1Shots per Game 12.5
6.2Shots on Target 3.4
7.9Corners per Game 4.1
3.3Cards per Game 2.2
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.33 goals
📈BTTS Trend
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Bayer Leverkusen- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Marseille- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen7W1D2L
31/10/2026Bayer Leverkusen
VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen
1. FC Nürnberg
1899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen
OFIBayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Lech PoznanBayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
FC AugsburgBayer Leverkusen
Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgart24
L28/10/2026Bayer Leverkusen1. FC Nürnberg52
W25/10/20261899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen30
L22/10/2026OFIBayer Leverkusen02
W18/10/2026Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg21
W15/10/2026Lech PoznanBayer Leverkusen04
W10/10/2026FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen34
W20/09/2026Bayer LeverkusenRB Leipzig20
W16/09/2026Bayer Leverkusen
Celje
12/09/2026Bayer LeverkusenCelje20
WFC AugsburgBayer Leverkusen22
DMarseille4W0D6L
01/11/2026Marseille
ToulouseMarseille
Le Havre
Sturm GrazMarseille
AngersMarseilleMarseille
Olympiakos Piraeus
Estac TroyesMarseilleMarseille
Paris Saint Germain
BeşiktaşMarseille
RennesMarseilleMarseille
Paris FC
MarseilleToulouse20
W25/10/2026MarseilleLe Havre43
W22/10/2026Sturm GrazMarseille10
L18/10/2026AngersMarseille25
W15/10/2026MarseilleOlympiakos Piraeus01
L11/10/2026Estac TroyesMarseille02
W20/09/2026MarseilleParis Saint Germain12
L17/09/2026BeşiktaşMarseille41
L11/09/2026RennesMarseille10
L06/09/2026MarseilleParis FC23
LReferee Profile
4.65Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
26.7Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.65 cards a match, 0.32 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.33).
Cards come from 46 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13:3 | +10 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:2 | +9 | 12 | WWWW |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:3 | +8 | 12 | WWWW |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:2 | +8 | 10 | WWDW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | +7 | 10 | WDWW |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | +3 | 10 | DWWW |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 | LWWW |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 7 | LDWW |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 7 | WLWD |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 7 | WWDL |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 7 | LDWW |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:9 | -1 | 7 | WWDL |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 7 | DLWW |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | LWWL |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:3 | +3 | 6 | WWLL |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | WLLW |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 6 | DDWD |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 6 | LLWW |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:9 | -2 | 6 | WLLW |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9:4 | +5 | 5 | DWDL |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 5 | DDLW |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:6 | 0 | 4 | LLDW |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:6 | 0 | 4 | DWLL |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 4 | LWLD |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 4 | WDLL |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 4 | LDLW |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 3 | LWLL |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 | LLWL |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 | LLWL |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 | WLLL |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 3 | WLLL |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:11 | -5 | 3 | WLLL |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1:8 | -7 | 1 | LLLD |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:10 | -8 | 1 | LLDL |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:12 | -10 | 1 | LDLL |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4:14 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 13:3 | 12 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 11:2 | 12 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 11:3 | 12 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 10:2 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 11:4 | 10 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 11:8 | 7 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 6:7 | 7 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 9:4 | 5 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 9:6 | 5 |
| 22 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 5:9 | 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 2:6 | 3 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 1:8 | 1 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 2:10 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 2:12 | 1 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 4:14 | 0 |
Europa League
Explore more predictions
This match
- Bayer Leverkusen Predictions
- Marseille Predictions
- UEFA Europa League Predictions
- UEFA Europa League Standings
- UEFA Europa League Stats 2026
- UEFA Europa League top scorers
- UEFA Europa League Knockout Rounds
- UEFA Europa League Winners and Finals History
- Football Tournaments: Predictions, Brackets and History
More UEFA Europa League matches
About the Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille forecast
This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille in the UEFA Europa League table
In the UEFA Europa League table, Bayer Leverkusen are 7th and Marseille 31st, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Bayer Leverkusen 8-1, Marseille 2-6. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.