Real Sociedad vs Lyon Prediction

Real Sociedad
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Lyon
Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian·Anastasios Papapetrou 05/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.17
SignalHIGHModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-9.4%
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.51
SignalGOODModel69%SurpriseMediumGap+3.9%
Real Sociedad Rest
3 days
Lyon Rest
4 days

Real Sociedad vs Lyon: result, form and history

Real Sociedad and Lyon drew 1-1 in the UEFA Europa League on 5 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Anastasios Papapetrou averages 4.35 cards a game, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.59
X
21%4.37
2
19%5.22
Double Chance
1X
81%1.17
X2
40%2.39
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.55
No
42%2.32
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.67 + 1.2 = 2.87
Over 1.5
81%1.14
Over 2.5
61%1.50
Over 3.5
40%2.23
Under 1.5
19%5.50
Under 2.5
39%2.62
Under 3.5
60%1.67
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 2.9 = 7.7
Over 8.5
37%1.43
Over 9.5
27%1.76
Over 10.5
19%2.20
Under 8.5
63%2.58
Under 9.5
73%1.98
Under 10.5
81%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 1.9 = 3.9
Over 3.5
55%1.61
Over 4.5
35%2.21
Under 3.5
45%2.23
Under 4.5
65%1.62

Match Events

28'Orri Steinn ÓskarssonAssist: Ander Barrenetxea
38'Kail BoudacheFoul
45'Mamadou Sarr INJon Martin out
54'Corentin TolissoAssist: Tanner Tessmann
61'Gonçalo GuedesPersistent infringement
66'Gonçalo Guedes INJob Ochieng out
67'Keito Nakamura INJulien Duranville out
75'Mads Bidstrup INNoah Teye Nartey out
77'Ander BarrenetxeaDissent
79'Orri Steinn Óskarsson INLuka Sučić out
79'Ander Barrenetxea INPablo Marin out
82'Julien DuranvilleFoul
87'Dominik GreifTime wasting
89'Yangel HerreraFoul
89'Kail Boudache INNicolás Tagliafico out
89'Khalis Merah INAlejandro Gomes Rodríguez out
90+1'Abner ViniciusFoul

Lineups

Real Sociedad
4-4-2Coach: P. Matarazzo
Lyon
4-3-3Coach: Jorge Maciel
Avg rating6.66
Avg rating6.67
Unai Marrero6.913U. Marrero
J. Aramburu6.72J. Aramburu
Zubeldia6.95Zubeldia
M. Sarr6.819M. Sarr
Sergio Gómez6.517S. Gómez
Barrenetxea6.77Barrenetxea
Jon Gorrotxategi6.44J. Gorrotxategi
Y. Herrera6.221Y. Herrera
Gonçalo Guedes6.211G. Guedes
Mikel Oyarzabal6.410M. Oyarzabal
O. Óskarsson8.09O. Óskarsson
D. Greif6.51D. Greif
Z. Athekame6.313Z. Athekame
F. Bacher6.820F. Bacher
R. Kluivert6.821R. Kluivert
Abner6.116Abner
M. Bidstrup6.42M. Bidstrup
T. Tessmann7.76T. Tessmann
C. Tolisso7.98C. Tolisso
K. Boudache6.226K. Boudache
K. Merah6.518K. Merah
Keito Nakamura6.911K. Nakamura

Real Sociedad Substitutes

8Beñat Turrientes
22Héctor Fort
14T. Kubo
28A. Lebarbier
29Alex Garcia
15Pablo Marín79'for Ander Barrenetxea6.3
6Jon Martín45'for Mamadou Sarr6.6
3Aihen Muñoz
12J. Ochieng66'for Gonçalo Guedes7.0
16Jon Pacheco
1Álex Remiro
24L. Sučić79'for Orri Steinn Óskarsson6.3

Lyon Substitutes

44A. Hamdani
85N. Kamara
22Clinton Mata
99N. Nartey75'for Mads Bidstrup6.6
3N. Tagliafico89'for Kail Boudache6.4
46Tiago Gonçalves
32Alejandro Gomes Rodriguez89'for Khalis Merah6.7
24J. Duranville67'for Keito Nakamura82'6.2
40R. Descamps
25J. Bengui João

Match Stats

Real SociedadLyon
47%Ball Possession53%
5Corner Kicks6
3Yellow Cards4
11Total Shots12
4Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal2
6Shots Inside Box6
5Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots6
23Fouls10
1Offsides4
3Goalkeeper Saves3
443Total Passes509
369Passes Accurate436
10Free Kicks22

Team Comparison

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
LyonLyon
1815Elo Rating 1835
2.59Attack 1.01
1.80Defense 1.70
50%Hit Rate 37%
15.1Shots per Game 12.3
5.4Shots on Target 4.1
4.8Corners per Game 4.9
2.5Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.87 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 0.9 in second half)
LyonLyon
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time

League Table

UEFA Europa League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BenficaBenfica440013:3+1012WWWW
2BournemouthBournemouth440011:2+912WWWW
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC440011:3+812WWWW
4Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise431010:2+810WWDW
5JuventusJuventus431011:4+710WDWW
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus43104:1+310DWWW
7Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen43018:1+79LWWW
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş421111:8+37LDWW
9Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb42115:4+17WLWD
10Levski SofiaLevski Sofia42114:3+17WWDL
11SunderlandSunderland42114:407LDWW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen42118:9-17WWDL
13LyonLyon42116:7-17DLWW
14AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar42027:4+36LWWL
15AnderlechtAnderlecht42026:3+36WWLL
16OFIOFI42025:4+16WLLW
17RennesRennes41304:3+16DDWD
18Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia42026:7-16LLWW
19TorreenseTorreense42027:9-26WLLW
20Real SociedadReal Sociedad41219:4+55DWDL
21Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace41219:6+35DDLW
22Sparta PrahaSparta Praha41126:604LLDW
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim41126:604DWLL
24Sturm GrazSturm Graz41123:6-34LWLD
25CeljeCelje41125:9-44WDLL
26Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg41123:8-54LDLW
27Celta VigoCelta Vigo41034:6-23LWLL
28AC MilanAC Milan41034:7-33LLWL
29JagielloniaJagiellonia41034:7-33LLWL
30PlzenPlzen41033:7-43WLLL
31MarseilleMarseille41032:6-43WLLL
32CelticCeltic41036:11-53WLLL
33Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva40131:8-71LLLD
34LillestromLillestrom40132:10-81LLDL
35Lech PoznanLech Poznan40132:12-101LDLL
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia40044:14-100LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BenficaBenfica413:312
2BournemouthBournemouth411:212
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC411:312
4Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise410:210
5JuventusJuventus411:410
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus44:110
7Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen48:19
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş411:87
9Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb45:47
10Levski SofiaLevski Sofia44:37
11SunderlandSunderland44:47
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen48:97
13LyonLyon46:77
14AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar47:46
15AnderlechtAnderlecht46:36
16OFIOFI45:46
17RennesRennes44:36
18Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia46:76
19TorreenseTorreense47:96
20Real SociedadReal Sociedad49:45
21Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace49:65
22Sparta PrahaSparta Praha46:64
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim46:64
24Sturm GrazSturm Graz43:64
25CeljeCelje45:94
26Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg43:84
27Celta VigoCelta Vigo44:63
28AC MilanAC Milan44:73
29JagielloniaJagiellonia44:73
30PlzenPlzen43:73
31MarseilleMarseille42:63
32CelticCeltic46:113
33Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva41:81
34LillestromLillestrom42:101
35Lech PoznanLech Poznan42:121
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia44:140
Europa League

About the Real Sociedad vs Lyon forecast

This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Real Sociedad and Lyon in the UEFA Europa League table

In the UEFA Europa League table, Lyon are 13th and Real Sociedad 20th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Real Sociedad 9-4, Lyon 6-7. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Real Sociedad have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Real Sociedad and Lyon have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.