Lyon vs Nice Prediction

Ligue 1France France · Regular Season - 7
Lyon
2-1
Finished
HT 2-1
Nice
Groupama Stadium, Lyon·Francois Letexier 18/10/2026
LyonLyon
2-1
Finished
NiceNice

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalHIGHModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-2.5%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.62
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+4.9%
Lyon Rest
3 days
Nice Rest
7 days

Lyon vs Nice: the result in context

Lyon beat Nice 2-1 in the Ligue 1 on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.80
X
23%3.94
2
21%4.37
Double Chance
1X
79%1.22
X2
45%2.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.62
No
46%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.9 + 0.95 = 2.85
Over 1.5
79%1.20
Over 2.5
57%1.69
Over 3.5
36%2.66
Under 1.5
21%4.35
Under 2.5
43%2.20
Under 3.5
64%1.45
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 4 = 8.6
Over 8.5
48%1.38
Over 9.5
37%1.69
Over 10.5
27%2.09
Under 8.5
52%2.67
Under 9.5
63%2.03
Under 10.5
73%1.65
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
54%1.67
Over 4.5
35%2.20
Under 3.5
46%2.15
Under 4.5
65%1.62

Match Events

10'Niels NkounkouFoul
18'Sepe Elye WahiAssist: Jonathan Clauss
32'Pavel Šulc
36'Tanner TessmannAssist: Zachary Athekame
48'Mohamed AbdelmoneimFoul
61'Noah Teye Nartey INCorentin Tolisso out
61'Julien Duranville INKeito Nakamura out
65'Mohamed AmouraFoul
70'Keito NakamuraSerious foul
75'Kail Boudache INFelix Bacher out
81'Mohamed Abdelmoneim INAlidu Seidu out
81'Pavel Šulc INKhalis Merah out
81'Abner Vinicius INRuben Kluivert out
87'Xavier Mandza INSofiane Diop out
87'Axel Witsel INMorgan Sanson out
87'Gauthier Hein INIsak Jansson out
90+3'Goal cancelledSepe Elye Wahi
90+4'Sepe Elye Wahi

Lineups

Lyon
4-2-3-1Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Nice
3-4-2-1Coach: O. Pantaloni
Avg rating6.67
Avg rating6.52
R. Descamps6.740R. Descamps
Z. Athekame7.113Z. Athekame
Clinton Mata6.822C. Mata
M. Niakhaté7.019M. Niakhaté
Abner6.316Abner
T. Tessmann8.16T. Tessmann
M. Bidstrup6.62M. Bidstrup
K. Boudache6.426K. Boudache
N. Nartey6.599N. Nartey
J. Duranville7.024J. Duranville
P. Šulc7.710P. Šulc
Y. Diouf6.123Y. Diouf
Mohamed Abdelmonem6.55M. Abdelmonem
Y. Ndayishimiye6.855Y. Ndayishimiye
X. Mandza Tsiendi6.735X. Mandza Tsiendi
J. Clauss7.192J. Clauss
A. Witsel6.428A. Witsel
H. Boudaoui7.06H. Boudaoui
N. Nkounkou6.427N. Nkounkou
G. Hein6.67G. Hein
M. Amoura6.39M. Amoura
E. Wahi7.411E. Wahi

Lyon Substitutes

1D. Greif
21R. Kluivert81'for Abner Vinicius6.0
20F. Bacher75'for Kail Boudache6.2
45R. Himbert
18K. Merah81'for Pavel Šulc6.4
23T. Morton
11Keito Nakamura61'for Julien Duranville70'5.7
7E. Nuamah
8C. Tolisso61'for Noah Teye Nartey6.3

Nice Substitutes

84H. Koutoune
21I. Jansson87'for Gauthier Hein6.5
10S. Diop87'for Xavier Mandza6.0
39D. Coulibaly
77T. Boulhendi
41D. Morana
29N. Ngoumou
36A. Seidu81'for Mohamed Abdelmoneim6.2
8M. Sanson87'for Axel Witsel6.0

Match Stats

LyonNice
48%Ball Possession52%
1Corner Kicks9
0Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
8Total Shots12
4Shots on Goal5
3Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box7
2Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots2
6Fouls14
0Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves2
471Total Passes503
399Passes Accurate435
85%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

LyonLyon
NiceNice
1824Elo Rating 1757
1.03Attack 2.61
0.97Defense 1.54
36%Hit Rate 81%
9.2Shots per Game 12.2
4.0Shots on Target 5.1
4.7Corners per Game 5.2
1.0Cards per Game 3.6

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

LyonLyon
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
NiceNice
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

LyonLyon5Wins · 50%
Draws220%
NiceNice3Wins · 30%
2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Ligue 115/02/2026
LyonNice
20
Ligue 118/10/2025
NiceLyon
32
Ligue 109/03/2025
NiceLyon
02
Ligue 101/12/2024
LyonNice
41
Ligue 116/02/2024
LyonNice
10
Ligue 127/08/2023
NiceLyon
00
Ligue 103/06/2023
NiceLyon
31
Ligue 111/11/2022
LyonNice
11
Ligue 112/02/2022
LyonNice
20
Ligue 124/10/2021
NiceLyon
32

Recent Form

LyonLyon
5W3D2L
15/10/2026
LyonCrystal Palace
32
W09/10/2026
LensLyon
21
L19/09/2026
LyonRennes
40
W16/09/2026
AnderlechtLyon
12
W12/09/2026
Paris FCLyon
00
D04/09/2026
LyonAuxerre
31
W29/08/2026
LyonLe Havre
11
D26/08/2026
LyonFenerbahçe
12
L22/08/2026
ToulouseLyon
02
W18/08/2026
FenerbahçeLyon
11
D
NiceNice
3W4D3L
11/10/2026
NiceStrasbourg
21
W20/09/2026
NiceLille
21
W12/09/2026
AuxerreNice
10
L05/09/2026
NiceLe Mans
11
D30/08/2026
Paris FCNice
30
L22/08/2026
NiceLorient
00
D
15/08/2026
Hull CityNice
00
D
08/08/2026
CagliariNice
0000
D
31/07/2026
JuventusNice
20
L
18/07/2026
NiceNimes
40
W

Referee Profile

Francois Letexier225 matches

4.27Cards per match
4.03Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
23.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Francois Letexier4.28
Other referees4.04

4.28 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.04).

Cards come from 220 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain962121:10+1120WWWWW
2LilleLille953112:6+618WDDWL
3LyonLyon952215:7+817WLWLW
4Paris FCParis FC952216:10+617WLWLW
5RennesRennes951320:19+116LWLWL
6MonacoMonaco943212:10+215LDLDW
7NiceNice942313:12+114WWLWW
8LensLens941416:13+313LWWWL
9MarseilleMarseille840418:13+512WWWLL
10LorientLorient83327:6+112DWWLD
11ToulouseToulouse824212:11+110DWDWD
12StrasbourgStrasbourg931517:19-210WLLLL
13AuxerreAuxerre931513:23-1010LDWLW
14Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29823314:12+29LDWLL
15AngersAngers92259:17-88LDLLW
16Estac TroyesEstac Troyes92257:16-98WDLLL
17Le MansLe Mans914411:18-77LDLLW
18Le HavreLe Havre90279:20-112LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain921:1020
2LilleLille912:618
3LyonLyon915:717
4Paris FCParis FC916:1017
5RennesRennes920:1916
6MonacoMonaco912:1015
7NiceNice913:1214
8LensLens916:1313
9MarseilleMarseille818:1312
10LorientLorient87:612
11ToulouseToulouse812:1110
12StrasbourgStrasbourg917:1910
13AuxerreAuxerre913:2310
14Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29814:129
15AngersAngers99:178
16Estac TroyesEstac Troyes97:168
17Le MansLe Mans911:187
18Le HavreLe Havre99:202
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About the Lyon vs Nice forecast

The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lyon and Nice in the Ligue 1 table

In the Ligue 1 table, Lyon are 3rd and Nice 7th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Lyon 15-7, Nice 13-12. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.