Lens vs Paris FC Prediction

Lens
2-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Paris FC
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens·Mathieu Vernice 24/10/2026
LensLens
2-1
Finished
Paris FCParis FC

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.19
SignalSTRONGModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-4.0%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Over 3.5
1.56
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+5.5%
Lens Rest
2 days
Paris FC Rest
6 days

Lens vs Paris FC: result, form and history

Lens beat Paris FC 2-1 in the Ligue 1 on 24 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Mathieu Vernice averages 4.49 cards a game, 0.62 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.55
X
25%3.54
2
32%2.69
Double Chance
1X
68%1.47
X2
57%1.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.50
No
38%2.45
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.83 + 1.25 = 3.08
Over 1.5
81%1.19
Over 2.5
61%1.64
Over 3.5
39%2.51
Under 1.5
19%4.50
Under 2.5
39%2.28
Under 3.5
61%1.52
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.3 = 9.4
Over 8.5
57%1.50
Over 9.5
46%1.87
Over 10.5
35%2.41
Under 8.5
43%2.38
Under 9.5
54%1.88
Under 10.5
65%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.4 = 4.6
Over 3.5
68%1.56
Over 4.5
49%2.10
Under 3.5
32%2.38
Under 4.5
51%1.67

Match Events

19'Penalty cancelledMatthieu Udol
28'Moustapha MbowFoul
29'Pierre Lees MelouHandball
45'Luca Koleosho INEmmanuel Mbemba out
45+2'Luca KoleoshoAssist: Lassine Sinayoko
51'Red card cancelledJean-Clair Todibo
51'Florian ThauvinFoul
61'Jean-Clair Todibo INKyllian Antonio out
61'Franjo Ivanovic INThorgan Hazard out
63'Florian ThauvinAssist: Thorgan Hazard
67'Adama Camara INMoses Simon out
67'Pablo Pagis INRudy Matondo out
71'Amadou Haidara INYassine Titraoui out
74'Samson BaidooFoul
76'Ilan Kebbal INPatrick Zabi out
81'Rudy Matondo INThibault De Smet out
83'Thorgan HazardAssist: Florian Thauvin
85'Saud Abdulhamid INMichał Skóraś out
85'Florian Sotoca INJunior Kadile out
89'Michał SkóraśDissent
90+2'OtavioFoul
90+5'Y. CahuzacDissent

Lineups

Lens
3-4-2-1Coach: Yannick Cahuzac
Paris FC
4-2-3-1Coach: L. Rosenior
Avg rating6.59
Avg rating6.29
R. Risser6.440R. Risser
R. Aguilar6.82R. Aguilar
S. Baidoo6.36S. Baidoo
J. Todibo6.620J. Todibo
Saud Abdulhamid7.023S. Abdulhamid
M. Cuisance6.427M. Cuisance
A. Haidara6.721A. Haidara
M. Udol5.914M. Udol
F. Thauvin7.910F. Thauvin
F. Sotoca6.07F. Sotoca
F. Ivanović6.229F. Ivanović
O. Nkambadio5.616O. Nkambadio
A. Camara6.417A. Camara
M. Mbow6.45M. Mbow
D. Coppola6.742D. Coppola
Otávio6.26Otávio
M. Lopez6.720M. Lopez
P. Lees-Melou5.933P. Lees-Melou
I. Kebbal6.110I. Kebbal
P. Pagis5.87P. Pagis
L. Koleosho7.415L. Koleosho
L. Sinayoko6.59L. Sinayoko

Lens Substitutes

9T. Hazard61'for Franjo Ivanovic83'7.5
16M. Gorgelin
38M. Soares
8Y. Titraoui71'for Amadou Haidara6.5
4N. Čelik
28J. Kadile85'for Florian Sotoca6.6
32K. Antonio61'for Jean-Clair Todibo6.1
5A. Bulatović
22M. Skóraś85'for Saud Abdulhamid89'6.3

Paris FC Substitutes

8E. Zabi76'for Ilan Kebbal6.1
28T. De Smet81'replaced by Rudy Matondo6.3
11J. Krasso
3E. Mbemba45'for Luca Koleosho6.3
50Ibrahim Meïté
23R. Matondo67'for Pablo Pagis81'for Thibault De Smet6.0
27M. Simon67'for Adama Camara6.2
18O. Sissoko
25Y. Koré

Match Stats

LensParis FC
56%Ball Possession44%
6Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards3
9Total Shots4
3Shots on Goal1
6Shots off Goal2
6Shots Inside Box4
3Shots Outside Box0
0Blocked Shots1
17Fouls17
0Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves2
555Total Passes457
478Passes Accurate371
16Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

LensLens
Paris FCParis FC
1832Elo Rating 1792
0.96Attack 1.52
1.47Defense 1.41
39%Hit Rate 39%
12.2Shots per Game 12.4
4.2Shots on Target 4.6
4.4Corners per Game 3.8
2.0Cards per Game 3.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.08 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

LensLens
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
Paris FCParis FC
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

LensLens2Wins · 100%
Draws00%
Paris FCParis FC0Wins · 0%
4.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2

Previous meetings

Ligue 114/02/2026
Paris FCLens
05
Ligue 119/10/2025
LensParis FC
21

Referee Profile

Mathieu Vernice139 matches

4.49Cards per match
4.20Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
28.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mathieu Vernice4.49
Other referees3.87

4.49 cards a match, 0.62 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.87).

Cards come from 126 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain962121:10+1120WWWWW
2LilleLille953112:6+618WDDWL
3LyonLyon952215:7+817WLWLW
4Paris FCParis FC952216:10+617WLWLW
5RennesRennes951320:19+116LWLWL
6MarseilleMarseille950420:13+715WWWWL
7MonacoMonaco943212:10+215LDLDW
8NiceNice942313:12+114WWLWW
9LensLens941416:13+313LWWWL
10LorientLorient83327:6+112DWWLD
11ToulouseToulouse924312:13-110LDWDW
12StrasbourgStrasbourg931517:19-210WLLLL
13AuxerreAuxerre931513:23-1010LDWLW
14Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29823314:12+29LDWLL
15AngersAngers92259:17-88LDLLW
16Estac TroyesEstac Troyes92257:16-98WDLLL
17Le MansLe Mans914411:18-77LDLLW
18Le HavreLe Havre90279:20-112LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain921:1020
2LilleLille912:618
3LyonLyon915:717
4Paris FCParis FC916:1017
5RennesRennes920:1916
6MarseilleMarseille920:1315
7MonacoMonaco912:1015
8NiceNice913:1214
9LensLens916:1313
10LorientLorient87:612
11ToulouseToulouse912:1310
12StrasbourgStrasbourg917:1910
13AuxerreAuxerre913:2310
14Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29814:129
15AngersAngers99:178
16Estac TroyesEstac Troyes97:168
17Le MansLe Mans911:187
18Le HavreLe Havre99:202
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Lens vs Paris FC forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lens and Paris FC in the Ligue 1 table

In the Ligue 1 table, Paris FC are 4th and Lens 9th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Lens 16-13, Paris FC 16-10. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Paris FC have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Lens and Paris FC have met only 2 times recently, averaging 4.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.