Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Prediction

Paris Saint Germain
2-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Lyon
Parc des Princes, Paris·Jerome Brisard 26/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.36
SignalHIGHModel79%SurpriseMediumGap+4.8%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.57
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+10.9%
Paris Saint Germain Rest
6 days
Lyon Rest
4 days

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: the result in context

Paris Saint Germain beat Lyon 2-0 in the Ligue 1 on 26 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Paris Saint Germain had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 3 for Lyon.

Paris Saint Germain have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.4 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
77%1.36
X
13%5.53
2
10%7.85
Double Chance
1X
90%1.10
X2
23%3.11
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.57
No
39%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.71 + 1.02 = 3.73
Over 1.5
86%1.10
Over 2.5
73%1.36
Over 3.5
52%1.95
Under 1.5
14%6.40
Under 2.5
27%3.06
Under 3.5
48%1.89
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.8 + 4.3 = 11.1
Over 8.5
73%1.45
Over 9.5
63%1.78
Over 10.5
53%2.23
Under 8.5
27%2.54
Under 9.5
37%2.03
Under 10.5
47%1.58
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.3 + 1.8 = 3.1
Over 3.5
37%1.93
Over 4.5
20%2.33
Under 3.5
63%1.85
Under 4.5
80%1.56

Match Events

31'VitinhaFoul
51'Maghnes AklioucheFoul
57'João Neves INMika Godts out
65'Warren Zaire-Emery INLucas Hernández out
65'Ferrán Torres INSenny Mayulu out
72'Senny MayuluAssist: Mika Godts
74'Ernest NuamahDissent
76'Khalis Merah INNoah Teye Nartey out
76'Corentin Tolisso INRuben Kluivert out
81'Maghnes Akliouche INQuentin Ndjantou out
81'Désiré Doue INLucas Beraldo out
81'Julien Duranville INKail Boudache out
84'Mika GodtsAssist: Quentin Ndjantou
90+1'Tyler Morton INRemi Himbert out

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3Coach: Luis Enrique
Lyon
4-3-3Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Avg rating7.01
Avg rating6.43
M. Safonov7.939M. Safonov
A. Hakimi7.12A. Hakimi
I. Zabarnyi7.16I. Zabarnyi
W. Pacho7.251W. Pacho
W. Zaïre-Emery7.033W. Zaïre-Emery
João Neves7.287J. Neves
Vitinha6.917Vitinha
Fabián Ruiz7.38F. Ruiz
M. Akliouche6.511M. Akliouche
Ferran Torres6.49F. Torres
D. Doué6.414D. Doué
D. Greif7.51D. Greif
Z. Athekame6.613Z. Athekame
F. Bacher6.420F. Bacher
M. Niakhaté6.819M. Niakhaté
Abner6.216Abner
T. Tessmann5.96T. Tessmann
T. Morton5.823T. Morton
C. Tolisso6.58C. Tolisso
E. Nuamah6.37E. Nuamah
K. Merah6.718K. Merah
J. Duranville6.524J. Duranville

Paris Saint Germain Substitutes

4Beraldo81'for Désiré Doue6.5
42D. Boly
30L. Chevalier
12L. Digne
27Pedro Fernández
22M. Godts57'for João Neves84'7.6
21L. Hernández65'for Warren Zaire-Emery6.8
24Senny Mayulu65'for Ferrán Torres72'7.8
47Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha81'for Maghnes Akliouche6.6

Lyon Substitutes

99N. Nartey76'for Khalis Merah6.1
21R. Kluivert76'for Corentin Tolisso6.2
26K. Boudache81'for Julien Duranville6.3
2M. Bidstrup
40R. Descamps
44A. Hamdani
45R. Himbert90+1'for Tyler Morton
85N. Kamara
22Clinton Mata

Match Stats

Paris Saint GermainLyon
68%Ball Possession32%
7Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards1
17Total Shots8
10Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal1
11Shots Inside Box4
6Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots2
8Fouls14
2Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves7
753Total Passes344
706Passes Accurate297
13Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
LyonLyon
2046Elo Rating 1830
3.32Attack 1.77
1.54Defense 1.24
100%Hit Rate 56%
21.0Shots per Game 10.4
10.1Shots on Target 4.3
4.0Corners per Game 4.7
0.3Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+216 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.73 goals
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.3 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
LyonLyon
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain7Wins · 70%
Draws110%
LyonLyon2Wins · 20%
3.4Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Ligue 119/04/2026
Paris Saint GermainLyon
12
Ligue 109/11/2025
LyonParis Saint Germain
23
Ligue 123/02/2025
LyonParis Saint Germain
23
Ligue 115/12/2024
Paris Saint GermainLyon
31
Coupe de France25/05/2024
LyonParis Saint Germain
12
Ligue 121/04/2024
Paris Saint GermainLyon
41
Ligue 103/09/2023
LyonParis Saint Germain
14
Ligue 102/04/2023
Paris Saint GermainLyon
01
Ligue 118/09/2022
LyonParis Saint Germain
01
Ligue 109/01/2022
LyonParis Saint Germain
11

Referee Profile

Jerome Brisard177 matches

4.14Cards per match
3.85Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
24.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jerome Brisard4.14
Other referees4.05

4.14 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.05).

Cards come from 169 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain962121:10+1120WWWWW
2RennesRennes951320:19+116LWLWL
3LilleLille843111:6+515DDWLW
4MonacoMonaco843111:7+415DLDWD
5LyonLyon842213:7+614LWLWD
6Paris FCParis FC842213:9+414LWLWD
7NiceNice942313:12+114WWLWW
8LensLens841316:12+413WWWLD
9MarseilleMarseille840418:13+512WWWLL
10LorientLorient83327:6+112DWWLD
11ToulouseToulouse824212:11+110DWDWD
12AuxerreAuxerre831412:18-610DWLWW
13Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29823314:12+29LDWLL
14AngersAngers82249:15-68DLLWD
15Le MansLe Mans814311:16-57DLLWD
16StrasbourgStrasbourg821512:18-67LLLLD
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes81255:16-115DLLLL
18Le HavreLe Havre90279:20-112LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain921:1020
2RennesRennes920:1916
3LilleLille811:615
4MonacoMonaco811:715
5LyonLyon813:714
6Paris FCParis FC813:914
7NiceNice913:1214
8LensLens816:1213
9MarseilleMarseille818:1312
10LorientLorient87:612
11ToulouseToulouse812:1110
12AuxerreAuxerre812:1810
13Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29814:129
14AngersAngers89:158
15Le MansLe Mans811:167
16StrasbourgStrasbourg812:187
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes85:165
18Le HavreLe Havre99:202
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon forecast

The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Paris Saint Germain and Lyon in the Ligue 1 table

In the Ligue 1 table, Paris Saint Germain are 1st and Lyon 5th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Paris Saint Germain 21-10, Lyon 13-7. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Lyon have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.