Belgium vs France Prediction

Belgium
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
France
Roi Baudouin, Brussels·Rade Obrenovic 28/09/2026
BelgiumBelgium
0-1
Finished
FranceFrance

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
61%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.53
SignalNEUTRALModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-4.3%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.61
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+6.1%
Belgium Rest
3 days
France Rest
3 days

Belgium vs France: the result in context

France beat Belgium 1-0 in the UEFA Nations League on 28 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

France have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game. France tend to win more corners, 5.9 a game to 2.9 for Belgium.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
27%3.88
X
24%3.90
2
49%1.85
Double Chance
1X
51%1.95
X2
73%1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.50
No
43%2.45
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.19 + 1.66 = 2.85
Over 1.5
81%1.16
Over 2.5
60%1.53
Over 3.5
40%2.39
Under 1.5
19%4.95
Under 2.5
40%2.40
Under 3.5
60%1.58
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 4.4 = 8.8
Over 8.5
55%1.65
Over 9.5
44%2.10
Over 10.5
32%2.77
Under 8.5
45%2.15
Under 9.5
56%1.68
Under 10.5
68%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2 = 4
Over 3.5
56%1.69
Over 4.5
37%2.29
Under 3.5
44%2.16
Under 4.5
63%1.59

Match Events

42'Diego MoreiraFoul
57'Kevin De BruyneFoul
63'Kevin De Bruyne INHans Vanaken out
63'Diego Moreira INDodi Lukebakio out
66'Youri TielemansFoul
68'Joaquin Seys INMaxim De Cuyper out
68'Esteban Lepaul INOusmane Dembélé out
77'Maghnes Akliouche INRayan Cherki out
77'Bradley Barcola INMichael Olise out
85'Romeo Lavia INNicolas Raskin out
85'Charles De Ketelaere INMatias Fernandez-Pardo out
88'Michael OliseAssist: Rayan Cherki
90'Lucas Da Cunha INManu Koné out

Lineups

Belgium
4-2-3-1Coach: M. van Bommel
France
4-3-3Coach: Z. Zidane
Avg rating6.48
Avg rating6.96
S. Lammens7.51S. Lammens
T. Castagne6.521T. Castagne
N. Ngoy6.815N. Ngoy
B. Mechele6.84B. Mechele
J. Seys6.018J. Seys
R. Lavia6.76R. Lavia
Y. Tielemans6.28Y. Tielemans
Diego Moreira5.419D. Moreira
K. De Bruyne6.17K. De Bruyne
M. Godts6.710M. Godts
C. De Ketelaere6.417C. De Ketelaere
M. Maignan7.316M. Maignan
P. Kalulu7.12P. Kalulu
J. Jacquet6.922J. Jacquet
M. Lacroix7.117M. Lacroix
A. Diouf6.613A. Diouf
M. Akliouche7.218M. Akliouche
L. da Cunha7.021L. da Cunha
E. Camavinga7.56E. Camavinga
D. Doué7.220D. Doué
E. Lepaul6.319E. Lepaul
B. Barcola6.412B. Barcola

Belgium Substitutes

2Z. Debast
13J. De Busser
16M. Keita
9R. Lukaku
14D. Lukebakio63'for Diego Moreira7.1
22M. Fernandez-Pardo85'for Charles De Ketelaere6.4
11L. Openda
23N. Raskin85'for Romeo Lavia6.3
20H. Vanaken63'for Kevin De Bruyne6.6
3K. De Winter
12M. Vandevoordt
5M. De Cuyper68'for Joaquin Seys6.4

France Substitutes

9R. Cherki77'for Maghnes Akliouche6.6
15L. Yoro
7O. Dembélé68'for Esteban Lepaul6.5
8M. Koné90'for Lucas Da Cunha
5J. Koundé
11M. Olise77'for Bradley Barcola88'7.7
1G. Restes
3A. Truffert
4D. Upamecano
23J. Butez
14A. Rabiot

Match Stats

BelgiumFrance
35%Ball Possession65%
2Corner Kicks6
3Yellow Cards0
12Total Shots18
2Shots on Goal7
8Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box12
5Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots5
12Fouls9
0Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves2
363Total Passes677
300Passes Accurate625
8Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

BelgiumBelgium
FranceFrance
1787Elo Rating 1927
1.43Attack 2.23
1.45Defense 1.66
39%Hit Rate 63%
11.4Shots per Game 18.5
4.8Shots on Target 7.3
2.9Corners per Game 5.9
3.0Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

BelgiumBelgium
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FranceFrance
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

BelgiumBelgium0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
FranceFrance5Wins · 100%
2.4Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League14/10/2024
BelgiumFrance
12
UEFA Nations League09/09/2024
FranceBelgium
20
Euro Championship01/07/2024
FranceBelgium
10
UEFA Nations League07/10/2021
BelgiumFrance
23
World Cup10/07/2018
FranceBelgium
10

Referee Profile

Rade Obrenovic178 matches

4.29Cards per match
4.10Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
22.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Rade Obrenovic4.29
Other referees4.39

4.29 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.39).

Cards come from 69 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance43107:2+510WDWW
2ItalyItaly42118:5+37WDWL
3BelgiumBelgium42026:5+16LWLW
4TürkiyeTürkiye40042:11-90LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance47:210
2ItalyItaly48:57
3BelgiumBelgium46:56
4TürkiyeTürkiye42:110

About the Belgium vs France forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Belgium and France in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: France are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 4 points ahead of Belgium in 3rd. League goal record so far: Belgium 6-5, France 7-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Belgium have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.