FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Prediction

FC Krasnodar
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Akhmat
Ozon Arena, Krasnodar·Sergey Karasev, Russia 15/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.56
SignalHIGHModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+13.3%
FC Krasnodar Rest
6 days
Akhmat Rest
5 days

FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat: the result in context

FC Krasnodar beat Akhmat 1-0 in the Premier League on 15 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: FC Krasnodar had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Akhmat.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Referee Sergey Karasev averages 5.48 cards a game, 1.02 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
72%1.56
X
20%4.30
2
8%5.90
Double Chance
1X
92%1.15
X2
28%2.49
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.78
No
47%1.94
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.19 + 0.72 = 2.91
Over 1.5
82%1.19
Over 2.5
57%1.75
Over 3.5
31%2.69
Under 1.5
18%3.96
Under 2.5
43%2.13
Under 3.5
69%1.39
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.7 + 3.4 = 10.1
Over 8.5
64%1.49
Over 9.5
53%1.86
Over 10.5
43%2.40
Under 8.5
36%2.38
Under 9.5
47%1.85
Under 10.5
57%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8
Over 3.5
45%-
Over 4.5
28%-
Under 3.5
55%-
Under 4.5
72%-

Match Events

5'M. Bogosavac
45'ChristianAssist: D. Vorobyev
46'M. Bogosavac INM. Sidorov out
58'E. Maksuti ING. Melkadze out
64'L. Sadulaev
71'K. Lenini INM. Ozdoev out
76'D. Vorobyev IND. Utkin out
76'Joao Batxi INJ. Boselli out
76'L. Sadulaev INK. Shchetinin out
77'M. Samorodov ING. Kenzhebek out
81'M. Sidorov
82'L. Olaza INA. Khmarin out
84'A. Adamov INA. Kasadzhikov out
90+3'G. Melkadze
90+4'Jubal Junior

Lineups

FC Krasnodar
4-2-3-1Coach: Murad Musaev
Akhmat
5-4-1Coach: Stanislav Cherchesov
Avg rating7.03
Avg rating6.66
Stanislav AgkatsevC6.91S. Agkatsev
Ilya Vakhaniya8.040I. Vakhaniya
Vítor Tormena8.03V. Tormena
Jubal7.55Jubal
Lucas Olaza7.215L. Olaza
Aleksandr Chernikov7.253A. Chernikov
Kevin Pina6.66K. Pina
Christian7.918Christian
Nikita Krivtsov6.588N. Krivtsov
João Batxi6.311J. Batxi
Dmitry Vorobyev7.210D. Vorobyev
Vadim Ulyanov7.21V. Ulyanov
Arsen Adamov6.995A. Adamov
Turpal-Ali Ibishev6.74T. Ibishev
Ousmane N’Dong6.690O. N’Dong
Klisman Cake7.05K. Cake
Miroslav Bogosavac6.28M. Bogosavac
Maksim Samorodov6.320M. Samorodov
Júlio Romão7.318J. Romão
Ismael Silva7.011I. Silva
Lechii SadulaevC6.27L. Sadulaev
Erald Maksuti6.776E. Maksuti

FC Krasnodar Substitutes

21Magomed Ozdoev71'for K. Lenini6.3
47Daniil Utkin76'for D. Vorobyev6.6
23Juan Boselli76'for Joao Batxi6.3
59Artem Khmarin82'for L. Olaza6.9
16Aleksandr Koryakin
17Valentin Paltsev
4Diego Costa
67Kazbek Mukailov

Akhmat Substitutes

81Maksim Sidorov46'for M. Bogosavac81'6.6
77Georgiy Melkadze58'for E. Maksuti90+3'6.2
10Kirill Shchetinin76'for L. Sadulaev6.6
23Galymzhan Kenzhebek77'for M. Samorodov6.6
97Aleksey Kasadzhikov84'for A. Adamov6.5
71Rasul Mitsaev
88Giorgi Shelia
42Manuel Keliano
6Kalidou Sidibé
70Abakar Gadzhiev
13Mohamed Konaté

Match Stats

FC KrasnodarAkhmat
58%Ball Possession42%
3Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards4
17Total Shots9
4Shots on Goal0
7Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box6
9Shots Outside Box3
6Blocked Shots3
9Fouls8
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves3
496Total Passes339
418Passes Accurate269
84%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
AkhmatAkhmat
1681Elo Rating 1494
1.63Attack 0.56
1.16Defense 1.86
27%Hit Rate 0%
13.1Shots per Game 12.6
6.4Shots on Target 3.5
4.6Corners per Game 5.2
1.9Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+187 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.91 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.7 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AkhmatAkhmat
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar4Wins · 40%
Draws330%
AkhmatAkhmat3Wins · 30%
2.1Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

Cup05/08/2026
FC KrasnodarAkhmat
5141
Premier League04/04/2026
AkhmatFC Krasnodar
01
Premier League04/10/2025
FC KrasnodarAkhmat
20
Premier League19/04/2025
FC KrasnodarAkhmat
31
Cup11/03/2025
FC KrasnodarAkhmat
12
Cup02/10/2024
AkhmatFC Krasnodar
30
Cup15/08/2024
FC KrasnodarAkhmat
10
Premier League21/07/2024
AkhmatFC Krasnodar
11
Premier League04/05/2024
KrasnodarAkhmat Grozny
01
Premier League16/09/2023
Akhmat GroznyKrasnodar
11

Recent Form

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
6W2D2L
09/08/2026
Spartak MoscowFC Krasnodar
12
W
05/08/2026
FC KrasnodarAkhmat
5141
W
02/08/2026
FC KrasnodarFakel
32
W
26/07/2026
RubinFC Krasnodar
13
W
19/07/2026
FC KrasnodarBaltika
11
D
11/07/2026
FC KrasnodarFC Rostov
33
D
25/06/2026
FC KrasnodarPSK Dinskaya
51
W
24/05/2026
Spartak MoscowFC Krasnodar
4131
L
17/05/2026
FC KrasnodarFC Orenburg
30
W
11/05/2026
DynamoFC Krasnodar
21
L
AkhmatAkhmat
3W5D2L
10/08/2026
FakelAkhmat
00
D
05/08/2026
FC KrasnodarAkhmat
5141
L
02/08/2026
AkhmatSpartak Moscow
12
L
26/07/2026
LokomotivAkhmat
11
D
11/07/2026
IMT Novi BeogradAkhmat
01
W
04/07/2026
Novi PazarAkhmat
11
D
29/06/2026
AkhmatBorac Banja Luka
31
W
17/05/2026
FC SochiAkhmat
11
D
10/05/2026
AkhmatDinamo Makhachkala
11
D
03/05/2026
AkhmatNizhny Novgorod
20
W

Referee Profile

Sergey Karasev21 matches

5.48Cards per match
5.00Yellow cards per match
0.48Red cards per match
22.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Sergey Karasev5.48
Other referees4.46

5.48 cards a match, 1.02 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.46).

Cards come from 21 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1DynamoDynamo1391321:12+928WLWWW
2ZenitZenit1290327:13+1427WWWWW
3CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1375121:12+926DWLWW
4FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1365221:16+523LDDLD
5Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1272321:10+1123LWDWW
6FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1338214:12+217DWDWD
7Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1236317:17015WLDDW
8FC RostovFC Rostov1243513:17-415WDWLL
9RubinRubin1336413:18-515WLLLD
10BaltikaBaltika1235415:13+214DDDLD
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1241716:23-713LDLLL
12Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1333715:28-1312WWDLD
13AkronAkron1226415:21-612WDLWD
14LokomotivLokomotiv1225516:16011LDWDL
15AkhmatAkhmat1325615:19-411LLLDL
16FakelFakel131398:21-136LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1DynamoDynamo1321:1228
2ZenitZenit1227:1327
3CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1321:1226
4FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1321:1623
5Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1221:1023
6FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1314:1217
7Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1217:1715
8FC RostovFC Rostov1213:1715
9RubinRubin1313:1815
10BaltikaBaltika1215:1314
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1216:2313
12Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1315:2812
13AkronAkron1215:2112
14LokomotivLokomotiv1216:1611
15AkhmatAkhmat1315:1911
16FakelFakel138:216
Relegation

About the FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

FC Krasnodar and Akhmat in the Premier League table

The table shows a wide gap: FC Krasnodar are 4th in the Premier League, while Akhmat sit 15th, 12 points behind. League goal record so far: FC Krasnodar 21-16, Akhmat 15-19. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.