FC Krasnodar vs Fakel Prediction

FC Krasnodar
3-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Fakel
Ozon Arena, Krasnodar·Stanislav Matveev, Russia 02/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.32
SignalSTRONGModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+4.6%
Value Analysis
80%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.32
SignalSTRONGModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+8.0%
FC Krasnodar Rest
6 days
Fakel Rest
7 days

FC Krasnodar vs Fakel: the result in context

FC Krasnodar beat Fakel 3-2 in the Premier League on 2 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
80%1.32
X
15%5.25
2
5%9.75
Double Chance
1X
96%1.05
X2
20%3.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%2.19
No
47%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.27 + 0.8 = 3.07
Over 1.5
82%1.24
Over 2.5
58%1.82
Over 3.5
32%2.95
Under 1.5
18%3.68
Under 2.5
42%2.02
Under 3.5
68%1.35
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 3.2 = 9.5
Over 8.5
62%1.69
Over 9.5
50%2.14
Over 10.5
39%2.83
Under 8.5
38%2.05
Under 9.5
50%1.62
Under 10.5
61%1.34
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2.4 = 3.9
Over 3.5
47%-
Over 4.5
31%-
Under 3.5
53%-
Under 4.5
69%-

Match Events

4'Jubal JuniorAssist: L. Olaza
27'N. KrivtsovAssist: Christian
29'Douglas Augusto
50'Jubal Junior
51'A. Gnapi Dable(Penalty missed)
59'N. KrivtsovAssist: Joao Batxi
61'A. Gnapi Dable INM. Turishchev out
61'Douglas Augusto INK. Lenini out
61'Christian IND. Utkin out
69'I. Vakhania INV. Paltsev out
69'A. Chernikov INM. Ozdoev out
72'Jubal Junior INDiego Costa out
76'Y. Zhuravlev INA. Kovalev out
76'V. Yakimov INB. Pusi out
85'M. TurishchevAssist: N. Giorgobiani
85'B. Magomedov INA. Bagamaev out
86'N. Giorgobiani INA. Sutormin out
88'A. SutorminAssist: B. Pusi
90+1'D. Utkin
90+6'

Lineups

FC Krasnodar
4-2-3-1Coach: Murad Musaev
Fakel
5-3-2Coach: Oleg Vasilenko
Avg rating6.86
Avg rating6.38
Stanislav AgkatsevC6.61S. Agkatsev
Ilya Vakhaniya7.240I. Vakhaniya
Vítor Tormena6.73V. Tormena
Jubal7.35Jubal
Lucas Olaza7.215L. Olaza
Aleksandr Chernikov6.653A. Chernikov
Augusto Douglas6.78A. Douglas
Christian7.018Christian
Nikita Krivtsov9.288N. Krivtsov
João Batxi6.911J. Batxi
Dmitry Vorobyev6.310D. Vorobyev
Daniil Frolkin5.91D. Frolkin
Darko Todorović5.655D. Todorović
Albert Gabaraev6.25A. Gabaraev
Igor Yurganov5.920I. Yurganov
Yuriy Zhuravlev6.344Y. Zhuravlev
Ilnur AlshinC5.610I. Alshin
Butta Magomedov6.397B. Magomedov
Ravil Netfullin6.752R. Netfullin
Vyacheslav Yakimov6.223V. Yakimov
Axel Gnapi5.99A. Gnapi
Nikolay Giorgobiani6.299N. Giorgobiani

FC Krasnodar Substitutes

16Aleksandr Koryakin
4Diego Costa72'for Jubal Junior6.6
59Artem Khmarin
17Valentin Paltsev69'for I. Vakhania6.2
21Magomed Ozdoev69'for A. Chernikov6.2
47Daniil Utkin61'for Christian90+1'6.7
6Kevin Pina61'for Douglas Augusto6.3
96Aleksandr Koksharov
67Kazbek Mukailov

Fakel Substitutes

35Vyacheslav Dorovskikh
96Igor Obukhov
53Matvey Bardachev
8Abdula Bagamaev85'for B. Magomedov6.5
17Anton Kovalev76'for Y. Zhuravlev6.7
11Alexey Sutormin86'for N. Giorgobiani88'7.3
18Kirill Simonov
25Aleksandr Belyaev
7Maksim Turishchev61'for A. Gnapi Dable85'7.9
93Merabi Uridia
19Belajdi Pusi76'for V. Yakimov6.9

Match Stats

FC KrasnodarFakel
56%Ball Possession44%
2Corner Kicks4
4Yellow Cards0
11Total Shots11
5Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box5
2Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots5
11Fouls10
2Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves2
446Total Passes342
379Passes Accurate260
85%Pass Accuracy76%

Team Comparison

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
FakelFakel
1681Elo Rating 1458
1.63Attack 0.72
1.16Defense 1.87
27%Hit Rate 36%
13.1Shots per Game 10.5
6.4Shots on Target 3.0
4.6Corners per Game 4.5
1.9Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+223 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.07 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.7 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FakelFakel
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar2Wins · 33%
Draws467%
FakelFakel0Wins · 0%
2.8Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored2 of 6
50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

Premier League30/03/2025
FC KrasnodarFakel
50
Premier League04/08/2024
FakelFC Krasnodar
00
Premier League19/04/2024
KrasnodarFakel Voronezh
20
Premier League25/08/2023
Fakel VoronezhKrasnodar
00
Premier League05/11/2022
Fakel VoronezhKrasnodar
33
Premier League17/07/2022
KrasnodarFakel Voronezh
22

Recent Form

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
6W2D2L
26/07/2026
RubinFC Krasnodar
13
W
19/07/2026
FC KrasnodarBaltika
11
D
11/07/2026
FC KrasnodarFC Rostov
33
D
25/06/2026
FC KrasnodarPSK Dinskaya
51
W
24/05/2026
Spartak MoscowFC Krasnodar
4131
L
17/05/2026
FC KrasnodarFC Orenburg
30
W
11/05/2026
DynamoFC Krasnodar
21
L
07/05/2026
FC KrasnodarDynamo
6050
W
03/05/2026
AkronFC Krasnodar
01
W
26/04/2026
FC KrasnodarDinamo Makhachkala
21
W
FakelFakel
3W4D3L
25/07/2026
FakelDinamo Makhachkala
12
L
15/07/2026
FC RostovFakel
21
L
11/07/2026
AkronFakel
11
D
07/07/2026
FakelFC Rostov
31
W
16/05/2026
Volga UlyanovskFakel
03
W
08/05/2026
FakelSka-khabarovsk
00
D
03/05/2026
FakelEnisey
20
W
27/04/2026
Torpedo MoskvaFakel
22
D
22/04/2026
FakelShinnik Yaroslavl
22
D
18/04/2026
ChaykaFakel
20
L

Referee Profile

Stanislav Matveev3 matches analysed

4.32Cards per match
4.14Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 37% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1DynamoDynamo1391321:12+928WLWWW
2ZenitZenit1290327:13+1427WWWWW
3CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1375121:12+926DWLWW
4FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1365221:16+523LDDLD
5Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1272321:10+1123LWDWW
6FC RostovFC Rostov1353516:17-118WWDWL
7BaltikaBaltika1345417:14+317WDDDL
8FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1338214:12+217DWDWD
9Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1236317:17015WLDDW
10RubinRubin1336413:18-515WLLLD
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1341816:26-1013LLDLL
12Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1333715:28-1312WWDLD
13AkronAkron1326516:23-712LWDLW
14LokomotivLokomotiv1225516:16011LDWDL
15AkhmatAkhmat1325615:19-411LLLDL
16FakelFakel131398:21-136LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1DynamoDynamo1321:1228
2ZenitZenit1227:1327
3CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1321:1226
4FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1321:1623
5Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1221:1023
6FC RostovFC Rostov1316:1718
7BaltikaBaltika1317:1417
8FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1314:1217
9Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1217:1715
10RubinRubin1313:1815
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1316:2613
12Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1315:2812
13AkronAkron1316:2312
14LokomotivLokomotiv1216:1611
15AkhmatAkhmat1315:1911
16FakelFakel138:216
Relegation

About the FC Krasnodar vs Fakel forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

FC Krasnodar and Fakel in the Premier League table

The table shows a wide gap: FC Krasnodar are 4th in the Premier League, while Fakel sit 16th, 17 points behind. League goal record so far: FC Krasnodar 21-16, Fakel 8-21. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.