Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL Prediction

Estadio Akron, Guadalajara·Fernando Hernandez Gomez 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-8.5%
Guadalajara Chivas Rest
6 days
Tigres UANL Rest
7 days

Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL: the result in context

Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL drew 1-1 in the Liga MX on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Referee Fernando Hernandez Gomez averages 5.25 cards a game, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
49%1.83
X
26%3.70
2
25%3.99
Double Chance
1X
76%1.22
X2
51%1.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.68
No
45%2.06
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.5 + 1.17 = 2.67
Over 1.5
77%1.22
Over 2.5
54%1.79
Over 3.5
32%2.83
Under 1.5
23%3.90
Under 2.5
46%2.00
Under 3.5
68%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 4.2 = 10
Over 8.5
65%1.45
Over 9.5
53%1.80
Over 10.5
42%2.29
Under 8.5
35%2.52
Under 9.5
47%1.93
Under 10.5
58%1.54
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.5 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
50%-
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
50%-

Match Events

36'Juan BrunettaAssist: Diego Lainez
45'Leonel Calderón Oviedo INBryan Gonzalez out
45'Ángel Sepúlveda INRicardo Marín out
45+2'Juan BrunettaSerious foul
51'Santiago SandovalFoul
62'Rodrigo Aguirre INEmiliano Gómez out
62'Diego Sánchez INRicardo Monreal out
62'Diego Lainez INJesús Garza out
62'Luis Rey INRichard Ledezma out
67'Fernando GonzálezFoul
72'Fernando González INJordan Carrillo out
75'Joaquim Pereira INVladimir Loroña out
77'Jordan CarrilloAssist: Bryan Gonzalez
86'Santiago Sandoval INJesús Hernández out
87'Fernando Gorriarán INJonathan Herrera out

Lineups

Guadalajara Chivas
3-4-2-1Coach: G. Milito
Tigres UANL
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Vucetich
Avg rating6.81
Avg rating6.53
J. Rangel6.81J. Rangel
D. Aguirre7.323D. Aguirre
L. Rey6.916L. Rey
D. Campillo6.73D. Campillo
R. Alvarado7.525R. Alvarado
R. González6.328R. González
B. Gutiérrez7.211B. Gutiérrez
L. Calderon6.3182L. Calderon
Santiago Sandoval6.430S. Sandoval
E. Álvarez7.310E. Álvarez
Á. Sepúlveda6.59Á. Sepúlveda
N. Guzmán6.81N. Guzmán
A. Franco6.315A. Franco
Joaquim6.228Joaquim
R. Guerrero6.533R. Guerrero
M. Laínez6.319M. Laínez
C. Araújo6.25C. Araújo
F. Gorriarán6.68F. Gorriarán
D. Sánchez6.430D. Sánchez
D. Lainez7.116D. Lainez
R. Aguirre6.417R. Aguirre
J. Brunetta7.411J. Brunetta

Guadalajara Chivas Substitutes

37R. Ledezma62'for Luis Rey6.6
14H. Camberos
13Óscar Whalley
33J. Carrillo72'for Fernando González77'7.6
56Á. Chávez
5B. González45'for Leonel Calderón Oviedo6.4
57J. Hernández86'for Santiago Sandoval6.7
46C. Hernandez
59C. Inda
17R. Marín45'for Ángel Sepúlveda6.6

Tigres UANL Substitutes

29J. Contreras
14J. Garza62'for Diego Lainez6.7
9E. Gómez62'for Rodrigo Aguirre6.6
77O. Herrera87'for Fernando Gorriarán6.7
32V. Loroña75'for Joaquim Pereira6.6
22G. Martínez
21R. Monreal62'for Diego Sánchez5.9
25F. Rodríguez
34Simeone
6J. Vigón

Match Stats

Guadalajara ChivasTigres UANL
69%Ball Possession31%
10Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
30Total Shots7
6Shots on Goal3
21Shots off Goal1
17Shots Inside Box5
13Shots Outside Box2
3Blocked Shots3
16Fouls11
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves5
597Total Passes277
519Passes Accurate179
11Free Kicks16

Team Comparison

Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
Tigres UANLTigres UANL
1728Elo Rating 1636
0.86Attack 1.10
2.36Defense 1.75
50%Hit Rate 31%
16.7Shots per Game 14.7
5.3Shots on Target 6.6
7.8Corners per Game 6.9
1.2Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
Tigres UANLTigres UANL
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1Wins · 10%
Draws550%
Tigres UANLTigres UANL4Wins · 40%
2.4Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga MX10/05/2026
Guadalajara ChivasTigres UANL
20
Liga MX03/05/2026
Tigres UANLGuadalajara Chivas
31
Liga MX12/04/2026
Tigres UANLGuadalajara Chivas
41
Liga MX18/09/2025
Guadalajara ChivasTigres UANL
00
Liga MX26/01/2025
Guadalajara ChivasTigres UANL
11
Liga MX25/08/2024
Tigres UANLGuadalajara Chivas
11
Liga MX22/01/2024
Tigres UANLGuadalajara Chivas
10
Liga MX29/10/2023
Guadalajara ChivasTigres UANL
04
Liga MX29/05/2023
Guadalajara ChivasTigres UANL
2232
Liga MX26/05/2023
Tigres UANLGuadalajara Chivas
00

Referee Profile

Fernando Hernandez Gomez167 matches

5.25Cards per match
4.86Yellow cards per match
0.39Red cards per match
25.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Fernando Hernandez Gomez5.25
Other referees4.57

5.25 cards a match, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.57).

Cards come from 157 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Club AmericaClub America1585236:21+1529DDLWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1585225:14+1129WWWDD
3Cruz AzulCruz Azul1592434:24+1029WWWWD
4AtlasAtlas1583426:26027WWLWD
5TolucaToluca1566331:21+1024DDDDL
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1557325:21+422DDWDD
7LeonLeon1564522:20+222LDWLD
8Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1571721:20+122WLWWW
9MonterreyMonterrey1463526:21+521DLWWD
10U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1555522:24-220WDLWD
11Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1462618:21-320LLLLW
12CF PachucaCF Pachuca1554625:19+619WWLLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1554619:23-419LWWDL
14PueblaPuebla1544717:23-616LLLDD
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1536615:22-715LDLDW
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1535716:24-814LLWLL
17NecaxaNecaxa1524916:28-1210LDLLD
18FC JuarezFC Juarez15221112:34-228WDLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Club AmericaClub America1536:2129
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1525:1429
3Cruz AzulCruz Azul1534:2429
4AtlasAtlas1526:2627
5TolucaToluca1531:2124
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1525:2122
7LeonLeon1522:2022
8Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1521:2022
9MonterreyMonterrey1426:2121
10U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1522:2420
11Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1418:2120
12CF PachucaCF Pachuca1525:1919
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1519:2319
14PueblaPuebla1517:2316
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1515:2215
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1516:2414
17NecaxaNecaxa1516:2810
18FC JuarezFC Juarez1512:348
Promotion

About the Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL forecast

The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL in the Liga MX table

The table shows a wide gap: Guadalajara Chivas are 2nd in the Liga MX, while Tigres UANL sit 15th, 14 points behind. League goal record so far: Guadalajara Chivas 25-14, Tigres UANL 15-22. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.