CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto·Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico 30/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.62
SignalSOLIDModel43%SurpriseMediumGap+6.9%
Value Analysis
60%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 9.5
1.70
SignalSOLIDModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+5.4%
CF Pachuca Rest
6 days
Guadalajara Chivas Rest
6 days

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas: result, form and history

CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas drew 1-1 in the Liga MX on 30 Aug 2026. Guadalajara Chivas had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against 1 for CF Pachuca.

Guadalajara Chivas have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 1.5 goals a game. Referee Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez averages 4.07 cards a game, 0.62 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
40%3.00
X
28%3.44
2
32%2.20
Double Chance
1X
68%1.62
X2
60%1.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.57
No
39%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.25 + 1.34 = 2.59
Over 1.5
75%1.22
Over 2.5
51%1.72
Over 3.5
29%2.84
Under 1.5
25%4.00
Under 2.5
49%2.06
Under 3.5
71%1.39
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.2 = 9.2
Over 8.5
55%1.65
Over 9.5
40%2.06
Over 10.5
29%2.65
Under 8.5
45%2.14
Under 9.5
60%1.70
Under 10.5
71%1.40
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.8 + 2.4 = 5.2
Over 3.5
69%1.32
Over 4.5
55%1.73
Under 3.5
31%3.20
Under 4.5
45%2.03

Match Events

3'R. AlvaradoAssist: H. Camberos
25'O. IdrissiFoul
32'F. VenegasFoul
51'E. Alvarez INB. Gutierrez out
53'C. SanchezFoul
57'A. Bautista INR. Pizarro out
59'S. Sandoval INR. Ledezma out
59'H. Camberos INJ. Carrillo out
65'O. Idrissi INN. Vallejo out
65'E. Montiel INA. Arroyo out
79'S. Rondon(Penalty)
84'R. Marin INA. Sepulveda out
84'O. Govea INK. Castaneda out
87'Kenedy INA. Alcaraz out
90'A. ArroyoFoul

Lineups

CF Pachuca
4-3-3Coach: Benjamin Mora
Guadalajara Chivas
3-4-2-1Coach: Gabriel Milito
Avg rating6.75
Avg rating6.85
C. MorenoC7.025C. Moreno
C. Sanchez6.614C. Sanchez
J. Berlanga6.213J. Berlanga
S. D. Barreto7.52S. D. Barreto
F. Venegas6.515F. Venegas
E. Montiel6.710E. Montiel
C. Rivera7.216C. Rivera
A. Bautista6.226A. Bautista
Kenedy6.329Kenedy
S. Rondon6.623S. Rondon
O. Idrissi7.311O. Idrissi
R. Rangel7.91R. Rangel
M. Gomez6.624M. Gomez
D. Campillo Del Campo6.93D. Campillo Del Campo
L. RomoC7.37L. Romo
S. Sandoval30S. Sandoval
O. Govea6.96O. Govea
F. Gonzalez6.928F. Gonzalez
H. Camberos7.314H. Camberos
R. Alvarado7.225R. Alvarado
E. Alvarez6.610E. Alvarez
R. Marin6.617R. Marin

CF Pachuca Substitutes

31J. Eulogio
6M. Isais
206T. A. Contreras
28A. Arroyo65'for E. Montiel90'6.6
187G. Alvarez
32P. Budib
7R. Pizarro57'for A. Bautista6.9
30S. Rodriguez
9A. Alcaraz87'for Kenedy6.7
21N. Vallejo65'for O. Idrissi7.0

Guadalajara Chivas Substitutes

13O. Whalley
37R. Ledezma59'for S. Sandoval6.3
19K. Castaneda84'for O. Govea6.7
59S. Inda
11B. Gutierrez51'for E. Alvarez6.3
16L. Rey
9A. Sepulveda84'for R. Marin6.7
33J. Carrillo59'for H. Camberos6.5
18J. Perez
57J. Hernandez

Match Stats

CF PachucaGuadalajara Chivas
43%Ball Possession57%
8Corner Kicks7
4Yellow Cards0
17Total Shots12
7Shots on Goal5
6Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box7
7Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots3
20Fouls8
3Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves6
386Total Passes528
313Passes Accurate460
81%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

CF PachucaCF Pachuca
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
1643Elo Rating 1728
1.46Attack 0.86
1.24Defense 2.36
27%Hit Rate 50%
14.2Shots per Game 16.7
3.8Shots on Target 5.3
4.4Corners per Game 7.8
3.4Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CF PachucaCF Pachuca
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

CF PachucaCF Pachuca1Wins · 10%
Draws330%
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas6Wins · 60%
1.5Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga MX11/01/2026
Guadalajara ChivasCF Pachuca
20
Liga MX03/11/2025
CF PachucaGuadalajara Chivas
01
Liga MX23/02/2025
Guadalajara ChivasCF Pachuca
21
Liga MX20/10/2024
CF PachucaGuadalajara Chivas
02
Liga MX14/04/2024
CF PachucaGuadalajara Chivas
01
Liga MX24/09/2023
Guadalajara ChivasCF Pachuca
00
Liga MX12/02/2023
CF PachucaGuadalajara Chivas
11
Liga MX31/07/2022
Guadalajara ChivasCF Pachuca
00
Liga MX17/01/2022
CF PachucaGuadalajara Chivas
21
Liga MX19/09/2021
Guadalajara ChivasCF Pachuca
10

Recent Form

CF PachucaCF Pachuca
3W1D6L
24/08/2026
Atletico San LuisCF Pachuca
11
D
18/08/2026
CF PachucaPuebla
23
L
12/08/2026
CharlotteCF Pachuca
01
W
08/08/2026
Columbus CrewCF Pachuca
21
L
05/08/2026
FC CincinnatiCF Pachuca
31
L
02/08/2026
LeonCF Pachuca
10
L
27/07/2026
CF PachucaClub Queretaro
12
L
19/07/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasCF Pachuca
03
W
04/07/2026
CF PachucaPuebla
31
W
18/05/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasCF Pachuca
10
L
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
4W2D4L
23/08/2026
Guadalajara ChivasClub Tijuana
52
W
17/08/2026
Santos LagunaGuadalajara Chivas
01
W
13/08/2026
Seattle SoundersGuadalajara Chivas
12
W
09/08/2026
Guadalajara ChivasFC Dallas
01
L
06/08/2026
Los Angeles FCGuadalajara Chivas
5141
L
01/08/2026
PueblaGuadalajara Chivas
11
D
26/07/2026
Guadalajara ChivasFC Juarez
10
W
19/07/2026
Guadalajara ChivasToluca
02
L
04/07/2026
Correcaminos UatGuadalajara Chivas
00
D
17/05/2026
Guadalajara ChivasCruz Azul
12
L

Referee Profile

Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez135 matches

4.07Cards per match
3.84Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
24.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez4.07
Other referees4.69

4.07 cards a match, 0.62 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.69).

Cards come from 122 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Club AmericaClub America1585236:21+1529DDLWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1585225:14+1129WWWDD
3AtlasAtlas1583426:26027WWLWD
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul1482432:23+926WWWDD
5TolucaToluca1566331:21+1024DDDDL
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1557325:21+422DDWDD
7LeonLeon1464421:18+322DWLDW
8Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1571721:20+122WLWWW
9MonterreyMonterrey1463526:21+521DLWWD
10U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1555522:24-220WDLWD
11Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1462618:21-320LLLLW
12CF PachucaCF Pachuca1554625:19+619WWLLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1554619:23-419LWWDL
14PueblaPuebla1544717:23-616LLLDD
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1536615:22-715LDLDW
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1535716:24-814LLWLL
17NecaxaNecaxa1524916:28-1210LDLLD
18FC JuarezFC Juarez15221112:34-228WDLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Club AmericaClub America1536:2129
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1525:1429
3AtlasAtlas1526:2627
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul1432:2326
5TolucaToluca1531:2124
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1525:2122
7LeonLeon1421:1822
8Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1521:2022
9MonterreyMonterrey1426:2121
10U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1522:2420
11Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1418:2120
12CF PachucaCF Pachuca1525:1919
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1519:2319
14PueblaPuebla1517:2316
15Tigres UANLTigres UANL1515:2215
16Atlante FCAtlante FC1516:2414
17NecaxaNecaxa1516:2810
18FC JuarezFC Juarez1512:348
Promotion

About the CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX table

In the Liga MX table, Guadalajara Chivas are 2nd and CF Pachuca 12th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: CF Pachuca 25-19, Guadalajara Chivas 25-14. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.